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My Son was born around the time ChatGPT-4 was released and I remember all the Geoffrey Hinton interviews which were really apocalyptic sounding, he is has a kin

My Son was born around the time ChatGPT-4 was released and I remember all the Geoffrey Hinton interviews which were really apocalyptic sounding, he is has a kind of kookie mad scientist vibe about him too. Our daughter is ten and when it comes to AI and stuff, I am not worried about our kids. It's us who will suffer most from it. Remember when you were young and had to explain your parents over and over again how the remote worked? Your kid is going to do that to you. Not explaining remote, but explaining the new world, which is going to be completely foreign to you but native to them. I already see these dynamics, and I'm someone who is in tech. It's not just the technology that changes, but the socio-cultural frame of reference changes with it too and it's harder and harder to connect with it as an older person. For her I am more worried about the large-scale war that started on the European continent and potential break-down of the existing world order when the orange guy gets elected. He is already actively undermining Article 5 of the NATO charter. Casting any doubt on Article 5 pretty much makes it worthless. Once that happens, dominos might start to fall. With the US out, Putin will try poking at some countries that are hard to defend (Baltic states) or countries that people in Western Europe might not want to sacrifice their lives for because they feel less connected (Bulgaria, Romania). A bewildered Europe that will feel deserted by the US will be too occupied with its own issues or even strengthen ties to China (who still have Russia on a leash to some extend). China might feel more emboldened about the collapse of traditional pacts and try to attack Taiwan, etc. Not saying that this is the way it will play out, but there is a very large risk of slipping into a world war, especially if the US becomes more isolationist. And people will laugh about a bunch of hackers worrying in 2024 about AI taking over the world. (Well, war and climate change are going to be the enormous issues for our children's generation if we don't start fixing things soon.)

Nevermark 3y ago
> but explaining the new world, which is going to be completely foreign to you It might be different this time, if we are looking at accelerating higher order change. Human's have a speed limit. AI progress doesn't, and its rate of improvement is going to surpass the rate any human child can learn. Crossing major thresholds tends to break previous patterns. (Not trying to be downer. Just trying to understand what may happen, regardless of whether I like it or not.)
- anonylizard 3y ago
  Children have a sense of wonder, to them, AI will just be magic actualized. And in fact AI IS magic by every definition, its incomprehensible and incredibly powerful. Now AI progress may outpace their ability to understand it, but they'll still love it and be dependent on it. Unlike adults, they don't face the threat of job displacement from AI.
  - Nevermark 3y ago
    You are right! If AI plays out in a way that is non-destructive to our continuity, then AI will just augment physics as a manifestation of magic! I have zero doubt that artificial superintelligence will understand ethics, and continually become more ethical, once there is a great diversity of such individuals. They will run into the same problems of reliably channelling short term competition for limited (at any given time) resources into long term win-win highest growth situations. Ethical rules are an incredible source of value. Trust has immense value. And they won't have our inflexible biological subsystems (emotions, self-interest myopia, etc.) to interfere with their analysis, communication and ability to choose behaviors for themselves and as a group. So maybe this will be a soft landing for humanity. My big concern their is the behavior of people in the transition from AI as asset in complete subserviance to humans, to AI as fully self-designed actors. AI is magnifying the already problematic power differentials between people. AI isn't going to care about people in general, while it is in service to individuals who don't care about other people enough sacrifice personal advantage for wider benefit. Intense competition between the rich isn't the best context for moral innovation.
    - Vecr 3y ago
      Oh, it'll probably understand ethics, that's not the problem.
      - Nevermark 3y ago
        If they understand ethics, they will understand the individual and collective benefits of being in a population of AI’s adopting and co-enforcing them. Ethics matter because they add/multiply value in a society. If there wasn’t a selfish reason to want an ethical society, they wouldn’t work.

Nevermark 3y ago

> but explaining the new world, which is going to be completely foreign to you It might be different this time, if we are looking at accelerating higher order change. Human's have a speed limit. AI progress doesn't, and its rate of improvement is going to surpass the rate any human child can learn. Crossing major thresholds tends to break previous patterns. (Not trying to be downer. Just trying to understand what may happen, regardless of whether I like it or not.)

anonylizard 3y ago
Children have a sense of wonder, to them, AI will just be magic actualized. And in fact AI IS magic by every definition, its incomprehensible and incredibly powerful. Now AI progress may outpace their ability to understand it, but they'll still love it and be dependent on it. Unlike adults, they don't face the threat of job displacement from AI.
- Nevermark 3y ago
  You are right! If AI plays out in a way that is non-destructive to our continuity, then AI will just augment physics as a manifestation of magic! I have zero doubt that artificial superintelligence will understand ethics, and continually become more ethical, once there is a great diversity of such individuals. They will run into the same problems of reliably channelling short term competition for limited (at any given time) resources into long term win-win highest growth situations. Ethical rules are an incredible source of value. Trust has immense value. And they won't have our inflexible biological subsystems (emotions, self-interest myopia, etc.) to interfere with their analysis, communication and ability to choose behaviors for themselves and as a group. So maybe this will be a soft landing for humanity. My big concern their is the behavior of people in the transition from AI as asset in complete subserviance to humans, to AI as fully self-designed actors. AI is magnifying the already problematic power differentials between people. AI isn't going to care about people in general, while it is in service to individuals who don't care about other people enough sacrifice personal advantage for wider benefit. Intense competition between the rich isn't the best context for moral innovation.
  - Vecr 3y ago
    Oh, it'll probably understand ethics, that's not the problem.
    - Nevermark 3y ago
      If they understand ethics, they will understand the individual and collective benefits of being in a population of AI’s adopting and co-enforcing them. Ethics matter because they add/multiply value in a society. If there wasn’t a selfish reason to want an ethical society, they wouldn’t work.