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Avdiivka is a tiny fraction of all of Ukraine, but it's still noteworthy that Russia is making significant progress there, and pushing in at other points on the
by elihu 3y ago
Avdiivka is a tiny fraction of all of Ukraine, but it's still noteworthy that Russia is making significant progress there, and pushing in at other points on the whole front. Ukraine's lines aren't at imminent risk of collapsing, but they have a pretty serious shortage of artillery shells and other equipment, and it's taking a toll.
If the U.S. were still supplying Ukraine they'd be in a much better place.
- jncfhnb 3y agoIt’s not that noteworthy though. Russia cannot sustain the war effort at this cost and this pace for the entirety of Ukraine. It’s a really small place with minor strategic value. Incessant meat waves do eventually work buts it’s not a winning strategy. “Sustain” is a really funky term that’s hard to define. Like, they can keep refurbing tanks. They can keep funneling out meat. But they can’t replace the ships. They can’t replace the sovereign wealth fund. Not to say the US shouldn’t be sending every last bomb it can find
- lukan 3y ago"Russia cannot sustain the war effort at this cost and this pace for the entirety of Ukraine. " That is something I heard ... since the beginning of the war, yet I see no signs of it. Russias economy is in full war mode, producing way more tanks and shells than the west. Ukraine has serious ammunition and manpower problems and the front can collapse. Also Ukraine prepared for a succesful offensive, and neglected the defense. "It’s a really small place with minor strategic value" And that small place was one of the best fortified places and succesfully defended since 2014. The fallback positions are not nearly as good prepared. And the chances are low, that they can even fallback with no more roads under their control. It is really not looking good at the moment.
- jncfhnb 3y agoRussias economy is extremely far from full war mode. Not even close. It is producing extremely few tanks, but is rather refurbishing old ones from storage. The rest of the post is fiction
- lukan 3y ago"It is producing extremely few tanks, but is rather refurbishing old ones from storage." That is effectivly the same. They can bring more tanks (100+ every month according to british intelligence) in, than they loose. Not the case for Ukraine. And if you mind telling me, what of my post was fiction in your perception, I might consider giving you sources.
- jncfhnb 3y agoIt’s effectively the same for the short term. Basically every single sentence was fiction
- lukan 3y agoWhat solid roads leading out, are under ukrainian control in avdiivka? They lost the last one some days ago. Now they try to fall back through the mud.
- jncfhnb 3y agoThe Russian positions are weak and also largely mud. This is an operational challenge for sure, but the apparent strategy appears to be a localized counter attack to support the withdrawal.
- lukan 3y agoThe russians don't really have to move. They are already close enough to shoot with small arms fire at the whole withdraw area. But the ukrainians have to move, the counter attack and the withdraw itself- it is a total disaster. The order came way too late, probably because of stupid symbolic reasons, because too many cannot handle unpleasant truth. And you did not tell me yet, what exact statement of mine were fantasy.
- lukan 3y agohttps://kyivindependent.com/avdiivka-defense-uncertain-as-ukraine-struggles-with-fortification/ https://kyivindependent.com/avdiivka-defense-uncertain-as-uk... Some dark highlights: "The second line of defense, a few kilometers behind the front, is still being built, according to nearly a dozen interviewed soldiers." "To reinforce infantry units after heavy losses, Ukraine has transferred soldiers from units specialized in artillery or logistics to infantry positions, according to the soldiers interviewed by the Kyiv Independent. This means soldiers deployed on the first defensive line may not even know the basic survival skills of an infantryman"
- riku_iki 3y ago> Russia cannot sustain the war effort at this cost and this pace for the entirety of Ukraine. the question is who will starve faster: Ukraine or Russia.
- jncfhnb 3y agoA complete abandonment by the US could cause it to be Ukraine. With ample supplies, possibly even just by Europe, it is likely to be Russia.
- riku_iki 3y agoWhy do you think so? There are many signs of Ukrainian starvation: 25% of population is displaced, they always were dependent on Russian energy, which they are cut from, they receive asymmetrical damage from Russian drone strikes. I don't see much signs of starving from Russian side at the same time.
- jncfhnb 3y agoNeither side is literally starving. Ukraine is not dependent on Russian energy. The drone strike damage is largely negligible.
- riku_iki 3y agonot literately, but economically, Ukraine still holds because received 100B+ financial aid in addition to military aid base on this link: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/ https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-s...
- jncfhnb 3y agoI mean, yes, it holds because of western aid. That’s not up to debate.
- baybal2 3y ago[dead]