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There are more oppositional figures, they’re simply barred from entry because it’s not a real democracy. Russia is not gaining noteworthy traction. Avdiivka is

There are more oppositional figures, they’re simply barred from entry because it’s not a real democracy. Russia is not gaining noteworthy traction. Avdiivka is a tiny pointless place aside from the fact that Russia is willing to impale itself at horrible odds to achieve any victory it can for optics.

elihu 3y ago
Avdiivka is a tiny fraction of all of Ukraine, but it's still noteworthy that Russia is making significant progress there, and pushing in at other points on the whole front. Ukraine's lines aren't at imminent risk of collapsing, but they have a pretty serious shortage of artillery shells and other equipment, and it's taking a toll. If the U.S. were still supplying Ukraine they'd be in a much better place.
- jncfhnb 3y ago
  It’s not that noteworthy though. Russia cannot sustain the war effort at this cost and this pace for the entirety of Ukraine. It’s a really small place with minor strategic value. Incessant meat waves do eventually work buts it’s not a winning strategy. “Sustain” is a really funky term that’s hard to define. Like, they can keep refurbing tanks. They can keep funneling out meat. But they can’t replace the ships. They can’t replace the sovereign wealth fund. Not to say the US shouldn’t be sending every last bomb it can find
  - lukan 3y ago
    "Russia cannot sustain the war effort at this cost and this pace for the entirety of Ukraine. " That is something I heard ... since the beginning of the war, yet I see no signs of it. Russias economy is in full war mode, producing way more tanks and shells than the west. Ukraine has serious ammunition and manpower problems and the front can collapse. Also Ukraine prepared for a succesful offensive, and neglected the defense. "It’s a really small place with minor strategic value" And that small place was one of the best fortified places and succesfully defended since 2014. The fallback positions are not nearly as good prepared. And the chances are low, that they can even fallback with no more roads under their control. It is really not looking good at the moment.
    - jncfhnb 3y ago
      Russias economy is extremely far from full war mode. Not even close. It is producing extremely few tanks, but is rather refurbishing old ones from storage. The rest of the post is fiction
      - lukan 3y ago
        "It is producing extremely few tanks, but is rather refurbishing old ones from storage." That is effectivly the same. They can bring more tanks (100+ every month according to british intelligence) in, than they loose. Not the case for Ukraine. And if you mind telling me, what of my post was fiction in your perception, I might consider giving you sources.
        jncfhnb 3y ago
        It’s effectively the same for the short term. Basically every single sentence was fiction
        lukan 3y ago
        What solid roads leading out, are under ukrainian control in avdiivka? They lost the last one some days ago. Now they try to fall back through the mud.
        jncfhnb 3y ago
        The Russian positions are weak and also largely mud. This is an operational challenge for sure, but the apparent strategy appears to be a localized counter attack to support the withdrawal.
        lukan 3y ago
        The russians don't really have to move. They are already close enough to shoot with small arms fire at the whole withdraw area. But the ukrainians have to move, the counter attack and the withdraw itself- it is a total disaster. The order came way too late, probably because of stupid symbolic reasons, because too many cannot handle unpleasant truth. And you did not tell me yet, what exact statement of mine were fantasy.
  - riku_iki 3y ago
    > Russia cannot sustain the war effort at this cost and this pace for the entirety of Ukraine. the question is who will starve faster: Ukraine or Russia.
    - jncfhnb 3y ago
      A complete abandonment by the US could cause it to be Ukraine. With ample supplies, possibly even just by Europe, it is likely to be Russia.
      - riku_iki 3y ago
        Why do you think so? There are many signs of Ukrainian starvation: 25% of population is displaced, they always were dependent on Russian energy, which they are cut from, they receive asymmetrical damage from Russian drone strikes. I don't see much signs of starving from Russian side at the same time.
        jncfhnb 3y ago
        Neither side is literally starving. Ukraine is not dependent on Russian energy. The drone strike damage is largely negligible.
        riku_iki 3y ago
        not literately, but economically, Ukraine still holds because received 100B+ financial aid in addition to military aid base on this link: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/ https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-s...
        jncfhnb 3y ago
        I mean, yes, it holds because of western aid. That’s not up to debate.
  - baybal2 3y ago
    [dead]
rufus_foreman 3y ago
>> Avdiivka is a tiny pointless place "Both sides regard Avdiivka as key to Russia's aim of securing full control of the two eastern "Donbas" provinces - Donetsk and Luhansk. These are among the four Ukrainian regions Russia says it has annexed but does not have full control of. Avdiivka is seen as a gateway to Donetsk city, whose residential areas Russian officials say have been shelled by Ukrainian forces, sometimes from Avdiivka." -- Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-does-russia-want-capture-ukraines-avdiivka-2024-02-06/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-does-russia-want-ca... I don't understand your point about optics. Why does Russia care about optics in this case? Ukraine has to care about optics because they are completely dependent on NATO aid for their survival at this point.
- jncfhnb 3y ago
  Go read any actual war analysis. It is not a strategically important place. Donetsk City is not realistically a significant target in the foreseeable future. Russia cares immensely about optics because Putin has demanded a military victory in time for the march elections. This has been publicly reported on since at least October.
  - rufus_foreman 3y ago
    I'm pretty sure I know who is going to win the March election.
    - jncfhnb 3y ago
      Of course. That doesn’t mean they don’t care about the results.
declann 3y ago
[flagged]

elihu 3y ago

Avdiivka is a tiny fraction of all of Ukraine, but it's still noteworthy that Russia is making significant progress there, and pushing in at other points on the whole front. Ukraine's lines aren't at imminent risk of collapsing, but they have a pretty serious shortage of artillery shells and other equipment, and it's taking a toll. If the U.S. were still supplying Ukraine they'd be in a much better place.

jncfhnb 3y ago
It’s not that noteworthy though. Russia cannot sustain the war effort at this cost and this pace for the entirety of Ukraine. It’s a really small place with minor strategic value. Incessant meat waves do eventually work buts it’s not a winning strategy. “Sustain” is a really funky term that’s hard to define. Like, they can keep refurbing tanks. They can keep funneling out meat. But they can’t replace the ships. They can’t replace the sovereign wealth fund. Not to say the US shouldn’t be sending every last bomb it can find
- lukan 3y ago
  "Russia cannot sustain the war effort at this cost and this pace for the entirety of Ukraine. " That is something I heard ... since the beginning of the war, yet I see no signs of it. Russias economy is in full war mode, producing way more tanks and shells than the west. Ukraine has serious ammunition and manpower problems and the front can collapse. Also Ukraine prepared for a succesful offensive, and neglected the defense. "It’s a really small place with minor strategic value" And that small place was one of the best fortified places and succesfully defended since 2014. The fallback positions are not nearly as good prepared. And the chances are low, that they can even fallback with no more roads under their control. It is really not looking good at the moment.
  - jncfhnb 3y ago
    Russias economy is extremely far from full war mode. Not even close. It is producing extremely few tanks, but is rather refurbishing old ones from storage. The rest of the post is fiction
    - lukan 3y ago
      "It is producing extremely few tanks, but is rather refurbishing old ones from storage." That is effectivly the same. They can bring more tanks (100+ every month according to british intelligence) in, than they loose. Not the case for Ukraine. And if you mind telling me, what of my post was fiction in your perception, I might consider giving you sources.
      - jncfhnb 3y ago
        It’s effectively the same for the short term. Basically every single sentence was fiction
        lukan 3y ago
        What solid roads leading out, are under ukrainian control in avdiivka? They lost the last one some days ago. Now they try to fall back through the mud.
        jncfhnb 3y ago
        The Russian positions are weak and also largely mud. This is an operational challenge for sure, but the apparent strategy appears to be a localized counter attack to support the withdrawal.
        lukan 3y ago
        The russians don't really have to move. They are already close enough to shoot with small arms fire at the whole withdraw area. But the ukrainians have to move, the counter attack and the withdraw itself- it is a total disaster. The order came way too late, probably because of stupid symbolic reasons, because too many cannot handle unpleasant truth. And you did not tell me yet, what exact statement of mine were fantasy.
- riku_iki 3y ago
  > Russia cannot sustain the war effort at this cost and this pace for the entirety of Ukraine. the question is who will starve faster: Ukraine or Russia.
  - jncfhnb 3y ago
    A complete abandonment by the US could cause it to be Ukraine. With ample supplies, possibly even just by Europe, it is likely to be Russia.
    - riku_iki 3y ago
      Why do you think so? There are many signs of Ukrainian starvation: 25% of population is displaced, they always were dependent on Russian energy, which they are cut from, they receive asymmetrical damage from Russian drone strikes. I don't see much signs of starving from Russian side at the same time.
      - jncfhnb 3y ago
        Neither side is literally starving. Ukraine is not dependent on Russian energy. The drone strike damage is largely negligible.
        riku_iki 3y ago
        not literately, but economically, Ukraine still holds because received 100B+ financial aid in addition to military aid base on this link: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/ https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-s...
        jncfhnb 3y ago
        I mean, yes, it holds because of western aid. That’s not up to debate.
- baybal2 3y ago
  [dead]

rufus_foreman 3y ago

>> Avdiivka is a tiny pointless place "Both sides regard Avdiivka as key to Russia's aim of securing full control of the two eastern "Donbas" provinces - Donetsk and Luhansk. These are among the four Ukrainian regions Russia says it has annexed but does not have full control of. Avdiivka is seen as a gateway to Donetsk city, whose residential areas Russian officials say have been shelled by Ukrainian forces, sometimes from Avdiivka." -- Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-does-russia-want-capture-ukraines-avdiivka-2024-02-06/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-does-russia-want-ca... I don't understand your point about optics. Why does Russia care about optics in this case? Ukraine has to care about optics because they are completely dependent on NATO aid for their survival at this point.

jncfhnb 3y ago
Go read any actual war analysis. It is not a strategically important place. Donetsk City is not realistically a significant target in the foreseeable future. Russia cares immensely about optics because Putin has demanded a military victory in time for the march elections. This has been publicly reported on since at least October.
- rufus_foreman 3y ago
  I'm pretty sure I know who is going to win the March election.
  - jncfhnb 3y ago
    Of course. That doesn’t mean they don’t care about the results.

declann 3y ago

[flagged]