5 ms·

How exactly will Russia start "riots" in NATO countries?

by cbg0 3y ago

The_Colonel 3y ago
With the large Russian minority living there. Just like it started in Donbas.
- thriftwy 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - The_Colonel 3y ago
    Wasn't all of this in Crimea / Donbas? It did not seem to help there.
    - thriftwy 3y ago
      Ukraine was busy closing Russian language schools all across country, including Donbass. The inconvenient truth is that such a policy didn't get any serious reversal during the reign of "pro-Russian, Donbass choice" Yanukovich. Nevertheless, Donbass only really went ballistic when the first action of post-Yanukovich Rada was to repeal the "language law" which half-assedly permitted the things I have mentioned in my previous comment.
      - ImPostingOnHN 3y ago
        > Ukraine was busy closing Russian language schools all across country, including Donbass. russia is closing Ukrainian-language schools across Ukraine. Bad or Good? What % of schools in russia are Ukrainian-language and are not closed?
        thriftwy 3y ago
        They are mostly in place. You can get "Ukrainian as native tongue" lessons in these "new regions". Not sure about LDNR as there's some stigma, plus the fact that all those regions are predominantly Russian speaking.
        ImPostingOnHN 3y ago
        [flagged]
        thriftwy 3y ago
        [flagged]
KingOfCoders 3y ago
The same way as in Transnistra, Georgia and Ukraine. Soviet Russia colonized these areas with Russians to control access to the baltic sea/coal production/... and today these Russians lead a "Back to Mother Russia" campaigns.
ceejayoz 3y ago
Via the standard playbook. https://www.texastribune.org/2017/11/01/russian-facebook-page-organized-protest-texas-different-russian-page-l/ https://www.texastribune.org/2017/11/01/russian-facebook-pag... https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/10/russia-facebook-race/542796/ https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/10/ru... https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/sep/30/blacktivist-facebook-account-russia-us-election https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/sep/30/blacktivi...
- wouldbecouldbe 3y ago
  Making it about US, main concern is Baltics
  - ceejayoz 3y ago
    A playbook is made up of repeatable tactics.
  - sach1 3y ago
    I think the links there are less about 'wow look at how this disruption playbook worked in the US' and more about'look you can cause instability without inviting open warfare with NATO'. Or are the Baltics and her people immune to propaganda?
    - wouldbecouldbe 3y ago
      Activating Russian communities is something different from promoting polarity in the US.
      - ceejayoz 3y ago
        Sure, but they do the "promoting polarity" thing outside the US plenty. It's a useful tactic; pick wedge issues like gay people or immigrants, spread false or out-of-context news, etc. For a nice Baltic example, Lithuania: https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-baltic-elves-taking-on-pro-russian-trolls https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-baltic-elves-taking-on-pro... > Facebook is where the light skirmishes take place; the mortal combat is reserved for the comment sections of Lithuanian news articles, where the trolls loose a constant drizzle of falsehoods and complaints, each comment helping to construct an alternate reality version of life in this Baltic country of 3 million. Rather than a thriving and patriotic post-Soviet success story, which it is, the image the trolls cultivate is that of a demoralized and angry society whose people are ready for regime change, be it through internal democratic mechanisms or through “liberation” by a friendly neighboring army.
Paradigma11 3y ago
There are significant Russian minorities left in the baltic states from the SU. Russia will support and radicalize those. If the Baltics dont react it will lead to unrest and Russia is forced to intervene and "protect" their fellow Russians. If the states react this will be seen as suppressing the Russian minorities and Russia will be forced to intervene and "protect" their fellow Russians.
- riku_iki 3y ago
  Baltic is part of NATO, it means NATO direct military response.
  - Paradigma11 3y ago
    True, Putin would need to wait for Trump to make it clear that he wouldnt come to their defense and/or Orban/Fico have done enough damage to the Organization to make this viable.
the_why_of_y 3y ago
The same way they already did in Estonia in 2007? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3xq2XrCHv8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3xq2XrCHv8

How exactly will Russia start "riots" in NATO countries?

by cbg0 3y ago

How exactly will Russia start "riots" in NATO countries?

The_Colonel 3y ago

With the large Russian minority living there. Just like it started in Donbas.

thriftwy 3y ago
[flagged]
- The_Colonel 3y ago
  Wasn't all of this in Crimea / Donbas? It did not seem to help there.
  - thriftwy 3y ago
    Ukraine was busy closing Russian language schools all across country, including Donbass. The inconvenient truth is that such a policy didn't get any serious reversal during the reign of "pro-Russian, Donbass choice" Yanukovich. Nevertheless, Donbass only really went ballistic when the first action of post-Yanukovich Rada was to repeal the "language law" which half-assedly permitted the things I have mentioned in my previous comment.
    - ImPostingOnHN 3y ago
      > Ukraine was busy closing Russian language schools all across country, including Donbass. russia is closing Ukrainian-language schools across Ukraine. Bad or Good? What % of schools in russia are Ukrainian-language and are not closed?
      - thriftwy 3y ago
        They are mostly in place. You can get "Ukrainian as native tongue" lessons in these "new regions". Not sure about LDNR as there's some stigma, plus the fact that all those regions are predominantly Russian speaking.
        ImPostingOnHN 3y ago
        [flagged]
        thriftwy 3y ago
        [flagged]

KingOfCoders 3y ago

The same way as in Transnistra, Georgia and Ukraine. Soviet Russia colonized these areas with Russians to control access to the baltic sea/coal production/... and today these Russians lead a "Back to Mother Russia" campaigns.

ceejayoz 3y ago

Via the standard playbook. https://www.texastribune.org/2017/11/01/russian-facebook-page-organized-protest-texas-different-russian-page-l/ https://www.texastribune.org/2017/11/01/russian-facebook-pag... https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/10/russia-facebook-race/542796/ https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/10/ru... https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/sep/30/blacktivist-facebook-account-russia-us-election https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/sep/30/blacktivi...

wouldbecouldbe 3y ago
Making it about US, main concern is Baltics
- ceejayoz 3y ago
  A playbook is made up of repeatable tactics.
- sach1 3y ago
  I think the links there are less about 'wow look at how this disruption playbook worked in the US' and more about'look you can cause instability without inviting open warfare with NATO'. Or are the Baltics and her people immune to propaganda?
  - wouldbecouldbe 3y ago
    Activating Russian communities is something different from promoting polarity in the US.
    - ceejayoz 3y ago
      Sure, but they do the "promoting polarity" thing outside the US plenty. It's a useful tactic; pick wedge issues like gay people or immigrants, spread false or out-of-context news, etc. For a nice Baltic example, Lithuania: https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-baltic-elves-taking-on-pro-russian-trolls https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-baltic-elves-taking-on-pro... > Facebook is where the light skirmishes take place; the mortal combat is reserved for the comment sections of Lithuanian news articles, where the trolls loose a constant drizzle of falsehoods and complaints, each comment helping to construct an alternate reality version of life in this Baltic country of 3 million. Rather than a thriving and patriotic post-Soviet success story, which it is, the image the trolls cultivate is that of a demoralized and angry society whose people are ready for regime change, be it through internal democratic mechanisms or through “liberation” by a friendly neighboring army.

Paradigma11 3y ago

There are significant Russian minorities left in the baltic states from the SU. Russia will support and radicalize those. If the Baltics dont react it will lead to unrest and Russia is forced to intervene and "protect" their fellow Russians. If the states react this will be seen as suppressing the Russian minorities and Russia will be forced to intervene and "protect" their fellow Russians.

riku_iki 3y ago
Baltic is part of NATO, it means NATO direct military response.
- Paradigma11 3y ago
  True, Putin would need to wait for Trump to make it clear that he wouldnt come to their defense and/or Orban/Fico have done enough damage to the Organization to make this viable.

the_why_of_y 3y ago

The same way they already did in Estonia in 2007? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3xq2XrCHv8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3xq2XrCHv8