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There isn't much more we can do. NATO could end Russia with more weapons and making a defence deal with Saudis in exchange for price dumping of oil and gas[1].

There isn't much more we can do. NATO could end Russia with more weapons and making a defence deal with Saudis in exchange for price dumping of oil and gas[1]. But no one wants a nuclear state to fail. Moscow must be terrified of another coup d'etat, hence Navalny's death. [1]extracting, insurance and delivery cost for Saudis are about $17 and for Russia it maybe as high as $40 now.

mamonster 3y ago
Why would Saudi go against Russia for doing something they do themselves, i.e murdering opposition(Khashogi)? Similarly, why would this be the trigger when the Saudi experience shows US is fine with it?
- lukasm 3y ago
  In the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter. The number one problem for SA is security. The state is fragile. Wahabi, Muslim Brotherhood, tribes that hate House of Saud. Secondly, Iran possess a direct threat, Houthi could destroy critical infrastructure. $$$$ spent on military doesn't help - they lost the war in Yemen. SA is on a lookout for allies: Defence partnership with Pakistan which probably end up in a nuclear technology transfer or purchase of atomic weapons. If USA would give better security guarantees to SA (similar to Jordan) with some tech transfer, SA would increase the output by 2x, which would result in $45 per barrel.
  - mamonster 3y ago
    Wahhabism isn't an internal threat to Saudi, like at all. It's their export ideology and it is not at all appealing to the citizens of one of the best welfare states in the world. Wahhabism in actual Saudi is completely different to what gets exported. As for Iran, seems like recently there has been a rapprochement(mediated by China), will need to see where it leads. It's pretty clear to me SA is on the lookout for allies, but US is low on their list, as they realised(correctly) that all the human rights issues in Russia exist there as well and might get tackled by the West in a decarbonised future.
    - alephnerd 3y ago
      > It's their export ideology Not anymore after MBS came to power. Wahabhi missionary worm was a King Fahd policy (and why so many foreign mosques are named after him). > it is not at all appealing to the citizens of one of the best welfare states in the world Not to most, but it's definetly appealing to a small subset similar to how White Nationalism is appealing to a small subset of Americans. The religious reforms post-2017 have been massive [0], and the fact that shows like Masameer or Bait Tahrir are being openly produced is a testament to that fact > As for Iran, seems like recently there has been a rapprochement(mediated by China) Only limited to Yemen. The relationship post-rapprochement was still fairly shaky and went down the gutter once 10/7 happened [1] > pretty clear to me SA is on the lookout for allies, but US is low on their list Yea no. Saudi is still continuing with US lead Israel-Saudi normalization [2] along with pushing for a US Defense Pact similar to what Japan has [3] [0] - https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/06/07/saudi-arabia-s-religious-reforms-are-touching-nothing-but-changing-everything-pub-84650 https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/06/07/saudi-arabia-s-reli... [1] - https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/12/saudi-iran-rapprochement-normalization-deal-china-de-escalation-yemen-syria/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/12/saudi-iran-rapprochemen... [2] - https://www.mei.edu/publications/saudi-israel-normalization-still-table https://www.mei.edu/publications/saudi-israel-normalization-... [3] - https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-pushes-us-defence-pact-ahead-presidential-election-2024-02-02/#:~:text=Washington%20and%20Riyadh%20agreed%20to,against%20the%20Houthis%20in%20Yemen https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-pushe....
      - mamonster 3y ago
        I think the notion that US Defense Pact is a sign of the countries being true allies needs to be examined. It's clear what the benefit for Saudi is, but it isn't so clear what the benefit for the US is/what the cost for Saudi is(beyond spending money on US arms which they wanted to do anyway). The reason why I say this: Around the time of the price cap on Russian oil US was already asking Saudi to pump supply so that Russian budget would suffer, and of course Saudis didn't do anything. I think MBS is going fully down the Erdogan/Orban route where he is nominally "West aligned" but is going to be playing both sides as much as he can. When I said allies I meant someone who they would have reciprocal relationships with(which IMO isn't really the case with US atm).
alangibson 3y ago
To be fair, a nuclear state did fail. The US launched a program to help secure nuclear material and it more or less worked out. You could argue that if the Russian state failed then a group of nations could literally just buy their nukes from whatever gangsters ever up in charge.
- ed_balls 3y ago
  I'd argue USSR collapse was a messy dissolution. A failure would be: Tatarstan declares independence, regular fighting in the streets of Moscow for months.
foldr 3y ago
The US Congress could pass the Ukraine funding package. That's one obvious thing.
- ethanbond 3y ago
  You can and should blame the Republicans. Congress isn’t the problem. Republicans are.
  - foldr 3y ago
    I didn't say anything about who was or wasn't to blame. My point is just that it's weird to say "there's not much more we can do" when that funding package is still in limbo.
    - jacquesm 3y ago
      You didn't say it, but it is the Republicans that are to blame. They seem to believe that obstruction is a form of government. And the weirdest thing is that their supporters seem to believe this is true.
      - foldr 3y ago
        I agree, but the person I was responding to seemed to think that I was somehow blaming Congress in general rather than the Republicans, which is reading something into my comment that simply wasn't there.
        jacquesm 3y ago
        I saw it more as a confirmation and expansion on your point than a contradiction.
      - A4ET8a8uTh0 3y ago
        << They seem to believe that obstruction is a form of government. It may come as something of a shock to some, but US constitution effectively guarantees gridlock if the various blocks are unable to agree. It is a feature and not a bug. In other words, obstruction, such as it is -- last time I checked there were still talks about aid package slowly making it through house with pieces being cut out -- is a valid form of political expression.
KingOfCoders 3y ago
When Russia invades Poland to create a land connection to Kaliningrad, just as they invaded Ukraine to create a land connection to Crimea, Europe will wish it had done 10x as much as it did. Western countries could deliver planes, Germany could deliver Taurus cruise missles, countries could give submarines in the atlantic to target Russian oil rigs etc.
- jacquesm 3y ago
  Exactly this. They're slow-walking this thing when they should be decisive. Kick Orban and Hungary out of the EU if they keep playing silly games, make a real stand and stay the course. This dumb half-assed stretching the line is going to end up in misery.
- ben_w 3y ago
  > When Russia invades Poland to create a land connection to Kaliningrad, just as they invaded Ukraine to create a land connection to Crimea, Europe will wish it had done 10x as much as it did. If it invades Poland. Finland joining NATO makes such an invasion less likely, because (I'm told) that membership gives NATO enough logistics to encircle Kaliningrad without going through the Suwałki Gap, and this in turn changes Kaliningrad itself from an asset into a liability. No, I'm not sure why Latvia/Lithuania/Estonia were not already sufficient for this. > Western countries could deliver planes, Germany could deliver Taurus cruise missles, countries could give submarines in the atlantic to target Russian oil rigs etc. Yes, though I've heard convincing arguments that part of the current Russian strategy is to keep NATO sufficiently worried about escalation that they focus on building up their own forces instead of donating those same resources to Ukraine.
- sesm 3y ago
  Why Poland instead of Lithuania?
  - justsomehnguy 3y ago
    Because the OP can't into maps.
- 3y ago
schappim 3y ago
> Saudis price dumping This is a nice idea but thanks to the shale revolution the US is now a net exporter of fossil fuels, and I suspect the will is not there. > insurance What percentage of energy is going out insured? It was my understanding that the transportation was moving to state owned vessels.
jacquesm 3y ago
Russia has already failed. The mob controls the nukes, that's the only reason why they managed to get as far as they did in Ukraine. If not for that it would have been long over.
- tasuki 3y ago
  I'm not sure I understand, can you elaborate please?
  - actionfromafar 3y ago
    The mob is Putins gang. And they have access to nukes, which is why they dared start this expedition into the Ukraine in the first place.
    - tryauuum 3y ago
      hm.... Maybe the real solution is proving that nukes don't work
      - jacquesm 3y ago
        Even if 98% of them don't work that's still a big problem.
  - jacquesm 3y ago
    Russia is a nuclear kleptocracy, it is ruled by a mob that seized power in a country that was already very fragile but that still had a massive arsenal. If you think about Russia in terms of a large gang run empire it starts to make a lot more sense. I know plenty of absolutely great Russian people, the country however is giving me the creeps and I don't see any of it ending well.

mamonster 3y ago

Why would Saudi go against Russia for doing something they do themselves, i.e murdering opposition(Khashogi)? Similarly, why would this be the trigger when the Saudi experience shows US is fine with it?

lukasm 3y ago
In the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter. The number one problem for SA is security. The state is fragile. Wahabi, Muslim Brotherhood, tribes that hate House of Saud. Secondly, Iran possess a direct threat, Houthi could destroy critical infrastructure. $$$$ spent on military doesn't help - they lost the war in Yemen. SA is on a lookout for allies: Defence partnership with Pakistan which probably end up in a nuclear technology transfer or purchase of atomic weapons. If USA would give better security guarantees to SA (similar to Jordan) with some tech transfer, SA would increase the output by 2x, which would result in $45 per barrel.
- mamonster 3y ago
  Wahhabism isn't an internal threat to Saudi, like at all. It's their export ideology and it is not at all appealing to the citizens of one of the best welfare states in the world. Wahhabism in actual Saudi is completely different to what gets exported. As for Iran, seems like recently there has been a rapprochement(mediated by China), will need to see where it leads. It's pretty clear to me SA is on the lookout for allies, but US is low on their list, as they realised(correctly) that all the human rights issues in Russia exist there as well and might get tackled by the West in a decarbonised future.
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    > It's their export ideology Not anymore after MBS came to power. Wahabhi missionary worm was a King Fahd policy (and why so many foreign mosques are named after him). > it is not at all appealing to the citizens of one of the best welfare states in the world Not to most, but it's definetly appealing to a small subset similar to how White Nationalism is appealing to a small subset of Americans. The religious reforms post-2017 have been massive [0], and the fact that shows like Masameer or Bait Tahrir are being openly produced is a testament to that fact > As for Iran, seems like recently there has been a rapprochement(mediated by China) Only limited to Yemen. The relationship post-rapprochement was still fairly shaky and went down the gutter once 10/7 happened [1] > pretty clear to me SA is on the lookout for allies, but US is low on their list Yea no. Saudi is still continuing with US lead Israel-Saudi normalization [2] along with pushing for a US Defense Pact similar to what Japan has [3] [0] - https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/06/07/saudi-arabia-s-religious-reforms-are-touching-nothing-but-changing-everything-pub-84650 https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/06/07/saudi-arabia-s-reli... [1] - https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/12/saudi-iran-rapprochement-normalization-deal-china-de-escalation-yemen-syria/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/12/saudi-iran-rapprochemen... [2] - https://www.mei.edu/publications/saudi-israel-normalization-still-table https://www.mei.edu/publications/saudi-israel-normalization-... [3] - https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-pushes-us-defence-pact-ahead-presidential-election-2024-02-02/#:~:text=Washington%20and%20Riyadh%20agreed%20to,against%20the%20Houthis%20in%20Yemen https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-pushe....
    - mamonster 3y ago
      I think the notion that US Defense Pact is a sign of the countries being true allies needs to be examined. It's clear what the benefit for Saudi is, but it isn't so clear what the benefit for the US is/what the cost for Saudi is(beyond spending money on US arms which they wanted to do anyway). The reason why I say this: Around the time of the price cap on Russian oil US was already asking Saudi to pump supply so that Russian budget would suffer, and of course Saudis didn't do anything. I think MBS is going fully down the Erdogan/Orban route where he is nominally "West aligned" but is going to be playing both sides as much as he can. When I said allies I meant someone who they would have reciprocal relationships with(which IMO isn't really the case with US atm).

alangibson 3y ago

To be fair, a nuclear state did fail. The US launched a program to help secure nuclear material and it more or less worked out. You could argue that if the Russian state failed then a group of nations could literally just buy their nukes from whatever gangsters ever up in charge.

ed_balls 3y ago
I'd argue USSR collapse was a messy dissolution. A failure would be: Tatarstan declares independence, regular fighting in the streets of Moscow for months.

foldr 3y ago

The US Congress could pass the Ukraine funding package. That's one obvious thing.

ethanbond 3y ago
You can and should blame the Republicans. Congress isn’t the problem. Republicans are.
- foldr 3y ago
  I didn't say anything about who was or wasn't to blame. My point is just that it's weird to say "there's not much more we can do" when that funding package is still in limbo.
  - jacquesm 3y ago
    You didn't say it, but it is the Republicans that are to blame. They seem to believe that obstruction is a form of government. And the weirdest thing is that their supporters seem to believe this is true.
    - foldr 3y ago
      I agree, but the person I was responding to seemed to think that I was somehow blaming Congress in general rather than the Republicans, which is reading something into my comment that simply wasn't there.
      - jacquesm 3y ago
        I saw it more as a confirmation and expansion on your point than a contradiction.
    - A4ET8a8uTh0 3y ago
      << They seem to believe that obstruction is a form of government. It may come as something of a shock to some, but US constitution effectively guarantees gridlock if the various blocks are unable to agree. It is a feature and not a bug. In other words, obstruction, such as it is -- last time I checked there were still talks about aid package slowly making it through house with pieces being cut out -- is a valid form of political expression.

KingOfCoders 3y ago

When Russia invades Poland to create a land connection to Kaliningrad, just as they invaded Ukraine to create a land connection to Crimea, Europe will wish it had done 10x as much as it did. Western countries could deliver planes, Germany could deliver Taurus cruise missles, countries could give submarines in the atlantic to target Russian oil rigs etc.

jacquesm 3y ago
Exactly this. They're slow-walking this thing when they should be decisive. Kick Orban and Hungary out of the EU if they keep playing silly games, make a real stand and stay the course. This dumb half-assed stretching the line is going to end up in misery.
ben_w 3y ago
> When Russia invades Poland to create a land connection to Kaliningrad, just as they invaded Ukraine to create a land connection to Crimea, Europe will wish it had done 10x as much as it did. If it invades Poland. Finland joining NATO makes such an invasion less likely, because (I'm told) that membership gives NATO enough logistics to encircle Kaliningrad without going through the Suwałki Gap, and this in turn changes Kaliningrad itself from an asset into a liability. No, I'm not sure why Latvia/Lithuania/Estonia were not already sufficient for this. > Western countries could deliver planes, Germany could deliver Taurus cruise missles, countries could give submarines in the atlantic to target Russian oil rigs etc. Yes, though I've heard convincing arguments that part of the current Russian strategy is to keep NATO sufficiently worried about escalation that they focus on building up their own forces instead of donating those same resources to Ukraine.
sesm 3y ago
Why Poland instead of Lithuania?
- justsomehnguy 3y ago
  Because the OP can't into maps.
3y ago

schappim 3y ago

> Saudis price dumping This is a nice idea but thanks to the shale revolution the US is now a net exporter of fossil fuels, and I suspect the will is not there. > insurance What percentage of energy is going out insured? It was my understanding that the transportation was moving to state owned vessels.

jacquesm 3y ago

Russia has already failed. The mob controls the nukes, that's the only reason why they managed to get as far as they did in Ukraine. If not for that it would have been long over.

tasuki 3y ago
I'm not sure I understand, can you elaborate please?
- actionfromafar 3y ago
  The mob is Putins gang. And they have access to nukes, which is why they dared start this expedition into the Ukraine in the first place.
  - tryauuum 3y ago
    hm.... Maybe the real solution is proving that nukes don't work
    - jacquesm 3y ago
      Even if 98% of them don't work that's still a big problem.
- jacquesm 3y ago
  Russia is a nuclear kleptocracy, it is ruled by a mob that seized power in a country that was already very fragile but that still had a massive arsenal. If you think about Russia in terms of a large gang run empire it starts to make a lot more sense. I know plenty of absolutely great Russian people, the country however is giving me the creeps and I don't see any of it ending well.