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>Following the data release, researchers from Victoria University in Australia and the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences predicted that China will have just 5
by sam345 3y ago
>Following the data release, researchers from Victoria University in Australia and the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences predicted that China will have just 525 million people by the end of the century. That’s down from their previous forecast of 597 million and a precipitous drop from 1.4 billion now.
Wow. That's very difficult to comprehend. Central management usually doesn't work particularly well especially if driven by models untested by the real world. Government is always tempted to control things that are best left alone.
- tuatoru 3y agoThings are not better in the west. Fertility is below replacement in all developed countries and it is trending down in nearly all of them. Sweden: https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/FERT/TOT/752 https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/FERT/TOT/... Canada: https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/FERT/TOT/124 https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/FERT/TOT/... USA: https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/FERT/TOT/840 https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/FERT/TOT/... Note, in all three charts, but especially the last, the assumption of a future "floor" to fertility. Such a floor has not yet been found to exist anywhere.