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Per the Kelly Criterion, unless you have a big bankroll, the minimum bet is an overbet, which turns it into a losing strategy. Suppose you have $100,000, and r
by RockyMcNuts 14y ago
Per the Kelly Criterion, unless you have a big bankroll, the minimum bet is an overbet, which turns it into a losing strategy.
Suppose you have $100,000, and repeatedly bet .001% of your net worth on a single ticket in the lottery at 100,000,000:1 with a 2x EV (disregarding that you can’t bet more or less than the price of a ticket). You do it 2,000,000 times, and then you hit the jackpot – pretty lucky since the odds are 100,000,000 to 1, right? But by the time you hit the jackpot, your bankroll has been so depleted that winning 200m x your bet, you only get back to 41% of your original net worth – because you overbet!
A longer discussion (by me) of why only millionaires should play Powerball -
http://blog.streeteye.com/blog/2011/11/why-only-millionaires-should-play-powerball/ http://blog.streeteye.com/blog/2011/11/why-only-millionaires...