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A neat trend. But still renewables are a small fraction of electrical generation capacity in the US. Dominated by gas, even the renewable slice (< 20%) is domin

A neat trend. But still renewables are a small fraction of electrical generation capacity in the US. Dominated by gas, even the renewable slice (< 20%) is dominated by hydroelectric. Which hasn't changed in 50 years, even gone down a bit. Second is wind. Solar is a scrap of a scrap. A long, long way to go to complete renewable energy.

toomuchtodo 3y ago
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/research/us-interconnection-queues-analysis-2023 https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights... ("US Interconnection Queues Analysis 2023") https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=55960 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=55960 ("Renewable generation surpassed coal and nuclear in the U.S. electric power sector in 2022") https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/11/02/u-s-to-deploy-550-gw-of-new-renewables-by-2030/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/11/02/u-s-to-deploy-550-gw-... ("U.S. to deploy 550 GW of new renewables by 2030") China deployed more solar last year than total US solar generation capacity, so while work, it can be done. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-installed-solar-power-capacity-rises-552-2023-2024-01-26/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-installed-sol... ("The country built in excess of 216 gigawatts (GW) of solar power this year, the data indicated, underscoring the scale and pace of China's solar build out.") Currently, the U.S. PV manufacturing industry has the capacity to produce PV modules to meet nearly a third of US domestic demand. https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/solar-manufacturing https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/solar-manufacturing
- nateglims 3y ago
  The second link is interesting since it covers actual generated energy. The others are kind of convoluted and need to be more clear on what the capacity measurement is since most renewables have significantly lower capacity factors than nuke, gas and coal.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    Which is why the battery uptake mentioned in this piece is of note. It firms renewables and steals grid service revenue from thermal generators. Pulls the uptake trajectory of renewables closer to vertical. Only one coal fired generator in the US is currently economical to run vs new renewables. You don’t have to match capacity factor, it’s about economics; if renewables can run often enough cheap enough, it makes other generators uneconomical even if they have superior capacity factors. It’s why nuclear is on life support in the US. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-07/end-of-coal-power-in-australia-means-a-boom-for-battery-makers-like-tesla https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-07/end-of-co... | https://archive.today/2owbd https://archive.today/2owbd https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jan/30/us-coal-more-expensive-than-renewable-energy-study https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jan/30/us-coal-more...
    - toomuchtodo 3y ago
      https://cleantechnica.com/2024/02/14/texas-shatters-own-solar-power-record-weird-political-situation-or-not/ https://cleantechnica.com/2024/02/14/texas-shatters-own-sola... ("Texas Shatters Own Solar Power Record, Weird Political Situation Or Not")
ThisIsMyAltAcct 3y ago
I think wind dominates hydropower now https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3
pfdietz 3y ago
Say you don't understand exponential growth without saying you don't understand exponential growth.
- JoeAltmaier 3y ago
  There's no way solar can grow geometrically for long. It consumes real estate like there's no tomorrow. Land is limited; sunlight is limited. It has a hard, hard limit. Unlike many other kinds of power generation, which are land-frugal and work 24 hours a day. So, let's rethink who doesn't understand growth.
  - pfdietz 3y ago
    > It consumes real estate like there's no tomorrow. Now you're really showing you haven't bothered to do basic arithmetic. Land use is not any sort of real limit to PV solar, especially in the US. I suggest you check your assertions for validity before you commit them to writing.
    - JoeAltmaier 3y ago
      [flagged]
      - pfdietz 3y ago
        I suggest you provide actual evidence for your assertion. You will not be able to, because it is false. The land area in the US is enormous and land cost is only a small fraction of the cost of a PV field. And, of course, grids can be extended as needed. The trolling is entirely yours.
        JoeAltmaier 3y ago
        Again with the hand-waving. "Land is big!" is no kind of argument or evidence. It all comes down to cost and practicality. Energy is not some game, its business. And with dropping panel cost, land is the last remaining hard nut in the equation. Not a small fraction, a large one, and becoming larger. As for understanding math, the earth is not getting any bigger. That limit cannot be beat, no matter how breathless the rhetoric.

toomuchtodo 3y ago

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/research/us-interconnection-queues-analysis-2023 https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights... ("US Interconnection Queues Analysis 2023") https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=55960 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=55960 ("Renewable generation surpassed coal and nuclear in the U.S. electric power sector in 2022") https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/11/02/u-s-to-deploy-550-gw-of-new-renewables-by-2030/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/11/02/u-s-to-deploy-550-gw-... ("U.S. to deploy 550 GW of new renewables by 2030") China deployed more solar last year than total US solar generation capacity, so while work, it can be done. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-installed-solar-power-capacity-rises-552-2023-2024-01-26/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-installed-sol... ("The country built in excess of 216 gigawatts (GW) of solar power this year, the data indicated, underscoring the scale and pace of China's solar build out.") Currently, the U.S. PV manufacturing industry has the capacity to produce PV modules to meet nearly a third of US domestic demand. https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/solar-manufacturing https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/solar-manufacturing

nateglims 3y ago
The second link is interesting since it covers actual generated energy. The others are kind of convoluted and need to be more clear on what the capacity measurement is since most renewables have significantly lower capacity factors than nuke, gas and coal.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  Which is why the battery uptake mentioned in this piece is of note. It firms renewables and steals grid service revenue from thermal generators. Pulls the uptake trajectory of renewables closer to vertical. Only one coal fired generator in the US is currently economical to run vs new renewables. You don’t have to match capacity factor, it’s about economics; if renewables can run often enough cheap enough, it makes other generators uneconomical even if they have superior capacity factors. It’s why nuclear is on life support in the US. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-07/end-of-coal-power-in-australia-means-a-boom-for-battery-makers-like-tesla https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-07/end-of-co... | https://archive.today/2owbd https://archive.today/2owbd https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jan/30/us-coal-more-expensive-than-renewable-energy-study https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jan/30/us-coal-more...
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    https://cleantechnica.com/2024/02/14/texas-shatters-own-solar-power-record-weird-political-situation-or-not/ https://cleantechnica.com/2024/02/14/texas-shatters-own-sola... ("Texas Shatters Own Solar Power Record, Weird Political Situation Or Not")

ThisIsMyAltAcct 3y ago

I think wind dominates hydropower now https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3

pfdietz 3y ago

Say you don't understand exponential growth without saying you don't understand exponential growth.

JoeAltmaier 3y ago
There's no way solar can grow geometrically for long. It consumes real estate like there's no tomorrow. Land is limited; sunlight is limited. It has a hard, hard limit. Unlike many other kinds of power generation, which are land-frugal and work 24 hours a day. So, let's rethink who doesn't understand growth.
- pfdietz 3y ago
  > It consumes real estate like there's no tomorrow. Now you're really showing you haven't bothered to do basic arithmetic. Land use is not any sort of real limit to PV solar, especially in the US. I suggest you check your assertions for validity before you commit them to writing.
  - JoeAltmaier 3y ago
    [flagged]
    - pfdietz 3y ago
      I suggest you provide actual evidence for your assertion. You will not be able to, because it is false. The land area in the US is enormous and land cost is only a small fraction of the cost of a PV field. And, of course, grids can be extended as needed. The trolling is entirely yours.
      - JoeAltmaier 3y ago
        Again with the hand-waving. "Land is big!" is no kind of argument or evidence. It all comes down to cost and practicality. Energy is not some game, its business. And with dropping panel cost, land is the last remaining hard nut in the equation. Not a small fraction, a large one, and becoming larger. As for understanding math, the earth is not getting any bigger. That limit cannot be beat, no matter how breathless the rhetoric.