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Russia attacking the rest of Europe is just fear mongering. Unfortunately this absolutely not the case, as applies to the Baltics and Moldova. The threat to t

Russia attacking the rest of Europe is just fear mongering. Unfortunately this absolutely not the case, as applies to the Baltics and Moldova. The threat to those countries is very real.

danbruc 3y ago
What is the evidence for that?
- khokhol 3y ago
  Various menacing statements and border incidents over the years (including a cross-border kidnapping in Estonia a few years back); GRU sabotage incidents in Czechia and Romania; and most notably, ongoing occupation of a good chunk of Moldovan territory, in the form of the Kremlin-managed mafia state known as Transnistria. Basically Putin's whole idea is that any place the Russian Empire (or its temporary proxy, the Soviet Union) sat on at one point or another in the past 350 years is fair game for re-occupation, vassalization and/or intimidation of some sort today.
  - danbruc 3y ago
    The Eston Kohver kidnapping, an Estonian security service member kidnapped a few meters across the border and later exchanged for another Estonian that spyed for Russia. Shaddy business, sure, but nothing that says war with Estonia. Sabotage in Czech Republic, the Vrbětice explosion? They blew up the ammunition stockpile of some weapons trader that intended to sell them to Ukraine. That does not seem directed at the Czech Republic. Maybe I am missing something, but the history of Transnistria sound not unlike many other civil wars to me. And just to be clear, I am not supporting Russia, but we have to be real and stick to the facts. False judgments - no matter whether it is making Russia more or less evil than it is - can lead to bad decisions. In my opinion a random assortment of incidents like the ones you named are hardly enough to draw the conclusion that Putin wants to reestablish the Soviet Union.
    - khokhol 3y ago
      It's all about connecting the dots, which are more than the sum of the parts. And taking into account the last 350 years of history. In this context, the above incidents (and the cat-and-mouse games with Sweden) can be seen as shots across the bow. If you look at Transnistria, it's definitely not a random civil war, but very much a proxy conflict (like breakaway republics in Georgia, or what Russia was doing in Eastern Ukraine 2014-2022). In my opinion a random assortment of incidents like the ones you named are hardly enough to draw the conclusion that Putin wants to reestablish the Soviet Union The Soviet Union, no. But what he does want is as much re-establishment as possible of Russia's historical "sphere of influence", and in Putin's mind, of Russia's role as the protector of Slavic culture and Eastern Orthodox values. There are plenty of statements in support of this, all over the place, and very easy to find.
      - danbruc 3y ago
        Personally I think there is no convincing evidence that Russia has a desire to go to war against other countries in eastern Europe, but for the sake of argument I will grant you that. The thing is, just having a desire to go to war with some country is only the first step. Does Russia have the means to do it? Does Russia believe it could win the war? Could Russia win the war? Could they occupy and control the country for long enough that resistance would subside? And maybe to add to the first point, sure, Russia certainly wants as much influence as it can get, but that is no different than every other country. There is of course a wide spectrum of means to achieve this, from economical cooperation, to supporting a coup d'état, to starting a war and a million things in between. Some we would consider legitimate, some not. That Russia would immediately jump to one of the most expensive options requiring a commitment for decades to succeed, that needs some pretty good evidence in my opinion.
        khokhol 3y ago
        That Russia would immediately jump to one of the most expensive options requiring a commitment for decades to succeed, that needs some pretty good evidence in my opinion. That they have done so already in Ukraine is all the evidence we need, in my opinion.

Russia attacking the rest of Europe is just fear mongering. Unfortunately this absolutely not the case, as applies to the Baltics and Moldova. The threat to those countries is very real.

danbruc 3y ago

What is the evidence for that?

khokhol 3y ago
Various menacing statements and border incidents over the years (including a cross-border kidnapping in Estonia a few years back); GRU sabotage incidents in Czechia and Romania; and most notably, ongoing occupation of a good chunk of Moldovan territory, in the form of the Kremlin-managed mafia state known as Transnistria. Basically Putin's whole idea is that any place the Russian Empire (or its temporary proxy, the Soviet Union) sat on at one point or another in the past 350 years is fair game for re-occupation, vassalization and/or intimidation of some sort today.
- danbruc 3y ago
  The Eston Kohver kidnapping, an Estonian security service member kidnapped a few meters across the border and later exchanged for another Estonian that spyed for Russia. Shaddy business, sure, but nothing that says war with Estonia. Sabotage in Czech Republic, the Vrbětice explosion? They blew up the ammunition stockpile of some weapons trader that intended to sell them to Ukraine. That does not seem directed at the Czech Republic. Maybe I am missing something, but the history of Transnistria sound not unlike many other civil wars to me. And just to be clear, I am not supporting Russia, but we have to be real and stick to the facts. False judgments - no matter whether it is making Russia more or less evil than it is - can lead to bad decisions. In my opinion a random assortment of incidents like the ones you named are hardly enough to draw the conclusion that Putin wants to reestablish the Soviet Union.
  - khokhol 3y ago
    It's all about connecting the dots, which are more than the sum of the parts. And taking into account the last 350 years of history. In this context, the above incidents (and the cat-and-mouse games with Sweden) can be seen as shots across the bow. If you look at Transnistria, it's definitely not a random civil war, but very much a proxy conflict (like breakaway republics in Georgia, or what Russia was doing in Eastern Ukraine 2014-2022). In my opinion a random assortment of incidents like the ones you named are hardly enough to draw the conclusion that Putin wants to reestablish the Soviet Union The Soviet Union, no. But what he does want is as much re-establishment as possible of Russia's historical "sphere of influence", and in Putin's mind, of Russia's role as the protector of Slavic culture and Eastern Orthodox values. There are plenty of statements in support of this, all over the place, and very easy to find.
    - danbruc 3y ago
      Personally I think there is no convincing evidence that Russia has a desire to go to war against other countries in eastern Europe, but for the sake of argument I will grant you that. The thing is, just having a desire to go to war with some country is only the first step. Does Russia have the means to do it? Does Russia believe it could win the war? Could Russia win the war? Could they occupy and control the country for long enough that resistance would subside? And maybe to add to the first point, sure, Russia certainly wants as much influence as it can get, but that is no different than every other country. There is of course a wide spectrum of means to achieve this, from economical cooperation, to supporting a coup d'état, to starting a war and a million things in between. Some we would consider legitimate, some not. That Russia would immediately jump to one of the most expensive options requiring a commitment for decades to succeed, that needs some pretty good evidence in my opinion.
      - khokhol 3y ago
        That Russia would immediately jump to one of the most expensive options requiring a commitment for decades to succeed, that needs some pretty good evidence in my opinion. That they have done so already in Ukraine is all the evidence we need, in my opinion.