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OpenAI's moat is (a) talent (b) access to compute (c) no fear of using whatever data they can get. On the other hand, I think these moats will be destroyed as
by dheera 3y ago
OpenAI's moat is (a) talent (b) access to compute (c) no fear of using whatever data they can get.
On the other hand, I think these moats will be destroyed as soon as anyone finds a drastically more efficient (compute- and data-wise) way to train LLMs. Biology would suggest that it doesn't take $100 million worth of GPUs and exaflops of compute to achieve the intelligence of a human.
(Of course it is possible that at that point, OpenAI may then be able to achieve something far superior to human intelligence, but there is a LOT of $$$ out there that only needs human levels of intelligence.)
- golol 3y agoBiology literally took a planet sized genetic algorithm with nanomachines a couple Billion years to get to this point.
- Eisenstein 3y ago> Biology would suggest that it doesn't take $100 million worth of GPUs and exaflops of compute to achieve the intelligence of a human. Biology suggests that a self-replicating machine can exist by ingesting other machines, turning them into energy and then using that energy to power themselves. Biology suggests that these machines can be so small that we cannot even see them. How close are we to making one of those?
- PeterisP 3y agoI believe that synthetic biology had succeeded already a few years ago in making artificial cells with a fully synthetic genome designed by us with what is sufficient for the cell to eat, grow and replicate, se we already can design and make such 'machines'.
- Eisenstein 3y agoSo make a biological AI then. What the parent was saying is that 'biology can do it with organic materials, so we should be able to do it with electronics".
- PeterisP 3y agoThere's nothing obviously wrong with assuming that "biology can do it with organic materials, so we should be able to do it with electronics" - while it's theoretically possible that we'll eventually identify some fundamental obstacle preventing that, as far as we currently know, computation is universal and the only thing that depends on the substrate is efficiency. Since we have a much, much better industrial process for manufacturing electronic components, why attempt to make a biological AI if there's no current reason to believe that it being biological is somehow necessary or even beneficial?
- Eisenstein 3y agoI love it when people completely pivot what they say just to keep arguing.