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When the attack happened, I first reckoned [1] the suspects as US < Russia < Ukraine, with accident being a possibility I couldn't order with respect to the oth
by jcranmer 3y ago
When the attack happened, I first reckoned [1] the suspects as US < Russia < Ukraine, with accident being a possibility I couldn't order with respect to the others. Looking back at the replies to the HN post I did at the time, actually quite a few people agreed that Ukraine was a strong contender. Although very quickly, the narrative focused on the US versus Russia for the most likely suspect, depending on whether you believed more that Russia was an irrational state actor or all world foreign policy is somehow done at the direction of the US.
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32996564 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32996564
- Alifatisk 3y agoWhy would the Russians sabotage for themselves?
- jcranmer 3y agoAs I said, the motivation isn't particularly compelling. But it should be noted that were Russia to have done it, it wouldn't have lost very much (the pipelines were no longer in operation at the time of the explosion, with NS2 never coming online, and NS1 having been shut off "indefinitely" a few weeks prior) and risked relatively little blowback, as Russia had already lost all credibility in the West when it invaded Ukraine. The gains aren't much, though. Primarily, it would have been a punitive action ("You want to support Ukraine? Okay then, freeze to death come winter!"), although it was noted at the time that the explosions weren't that far from a new Norway-Poland gas pipeline that had just come into service--a demonstration of capability. Unclear attribution could also be used as a lever to try to weaken NATO, by sending the US and EU into mutual recrimination. All said, it looks like a low-risk, low-reward situation for Russia, which isn't exactly compelling evidence.