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Are you sure? I just looked at ‘inactive’ data. [0] It was ~8.6 million at the start of 2020, and ~9.2 million at end of 2023. That doesn’t seem like a big jump

by cal85 3y ago

Are you sure? I just looked at ‘inactive’ data. [0] It was ~8.6 million at the start of 2020, and ~9.2 million at end of 2023. That doesn’t seem like a big jump, in fact zoomed out to ten years the pandemic doesn’t even really jump out at all. (Which surprises me.) There certainly doesn’t seem to be any significant change over the last 2 quarters. Unless I am reading it wrong somehow? You’re right about GDP growth per capita being down (for something like 7 successive quarters, I heard on the radio), and that’s normally the figure considered to best represent living standards. But as you say that’s explainable by population growth, which means it doesn’t count. If it’s new babies being born then economically speaking that’s an investment in the future and clearly doesn’t count as a falling living standards. And if it’s immigration, then I would guess those new people are mostly better off than they were before (or they wouldn’t have migrated), meaning it doesn’t necessarily reflect living standards falling either for people born here or for recent immigrants. So my armchair analysis is still that the economy is at worst stagnant, and clearly not in recession. Which is actually kind of remarkable given the feeling I get from the news over the last few years of crisis after crisis (pandemic, Ukraine, energy crisis). [0] https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/economicinactivity/timeseries/lf2m/lms https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotin...

mytailorisrich 3y ago
> It was ~8.6 million at the start of 2020, and ~9.2 million at end of 2023. So 700,000 people just like that in 4 years. That's quite a lot. Considering that the unemployment rate of 3.8% corresponds to 1,320,000 people, 700k extra would make a big difference to the unemployment rate (which would be 5.8% if those 700k they were counted as "unempployed"). And of course there are the criteria for being "employed". If you are on part-time or zero-hours contract, your hours and thus income can significantly decrease but you're still "employed". So would be interesting to see data on that if there are. > But as you say that’s explainable by population growth, which means it doesn’t count Of course it counts. And of course it means that average living standards are falling. Overall people are producing less per capita on average. So either there is a recession across the board that is masked by the population increase or the new immigrants fill new jobs that are much less productive, which isn't good, either in a country that has a productivity problem. > And if it’s immigration, then I would guess those new people are mostly better off than they were before That's irrelevant. It's the situation in the UK that matters.

by cal85 3y ago

mytailorisrich 3y ago

> It was ~8.6 million at the start of 2020, and ~9.2 million at end of 2023. So 700,000 people just like that in 4 years. That's quite a lot. Considering that the unemployment rate of 3.8% corresponds to 1,320,000 people, 700k extra would make a big difference to the unemployment rate (which would be 5.8% if those 700k they were counted as "unempployed"). And of course there are the criteria for being "employed". If you are on part-time or zero-hours contract, your hours and thus income can significantly decrease but you're still "employed". So would be interesting to see data on that if there are. > But as you say that’s explainable by population growth, which means it doesn’t count Of course it counts. And of course it means that average living standards are falling. Overall people are producing less per capita on average. So either there is a recession across the board that is masked by the population increase or the new immigrants fill new jobs that are much less productive, which isn't good, either in a country that has a productivity problem. > And if it’s immigration, then I would guess those new people are mostly better off than they were before That's irrelevant. It's the situation in the UK that matters.