4 ms·

Was it the US?

rib3ye 3y ago
[flagged]
bryanlarsen 3y ago
No, current consensus is that it was likely the Ukrainians. They are the obvious suspects, but they were initially ruled out because it was thought they didn't have the capabilities.
- jcranmer 3y ago
  When the attack happened, I first reckoned [1] the suspects as US < Russia < Ukraine, with accident being a possibility I couldn't order with respect to the others. Looking back at the replies to the HN post I did at the time, actually quite a few people agreed that Ukraine was a strong contender. Although very quickly, the narrative focused on the US versus Russia for the most likely suspect, depending on whether you believed more that Russia was an irrational state actor or all world foreign policy is somehow done at the direction of the US. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32996564 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32996564
  - Alifatisk 3y ago
    Why would the Russians sabotage for themselves?
    - jcranmer 3y ago
      As I said, the motivation isn't particularly compelling. But it should be noted that were Russia to have done it, it wouldn't have lost very much (the pipelines were no longer in operation at the time of the explosion, with NS2 never coming online, and NS1 having been shut off "indefinitely" a few weeks prior) and risked relatively little blowback, as Russia had already lost all credibility in the West when it invaded Ukraine. The gains aren't much, though. Primarily, it would have been a punitive action ("You want to support Ukraine? Okay then, freeze to death come winter!"), although it was noted at the time that the explosions weren't that far from a new Norway-Poland gas pipeline that had just come into service--a demonstration of capability. Unclear attribution could also be used as a lever to try to weaken NATO, by sending the US and EU into mutual recrimination. All said, it looks like a low-risk, low-reward situation for Russia, which isn't exactly compelling evidence.
- 4gotunameagain 3y ago
  I highly doubt the Ukrainians were capable of such an act, especially at that time. What about Biden explicitly stating that the US will destroy the pipeline ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OS4O8rGRLf8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OS4O8rGRLf8
  - bryanlarsen 3y ago
    A Der Spiegel investigation shows pretty convincingly that they had the capability. https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/investigating-the-attack-on-nord-stream-all-the-clues-point-toward-kyiv-a-124838c7-992a-4d0e-9894-942d4a665778 https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/investigating-th...
alecco 3y ago
"Swedish prosecutors have said they will end their investigation into the sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines in 2022, dodging the question of who destroyed the then new energy link between Russia and Europe shortly after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine." https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/07/sweden-drop-inquiry-nord-stream-pipeline-explosions https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/07/sweden-drop... And https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_NATO#Membership_aspirations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_NATO#Membersh...
CrzyLngPwd 3y ago
Of course, it was.

Was it the US?

[flagged]

No, current consensus is that it was likely the Ukrainians. They are the obvious suspects, but they were initially ruled out because it was thought they didn't have the capabilities.

jcranmer 3y ago
When the attack happened, I first reckoned [1] the suspects as US < Russia < Ukraine, with accident being a possibility I couldn't order with respect to the others. Looking back at the replies to the HN post I did at the time, actually quite a few people agreed that Ukraine was a strong contender. Although very quickly, the narrative focused on the US versus Russia for the most likely suspect, depending on whether you believed more that Russia was an irrational state actor or all world foreign policy is somehow done at the direction of the US. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32996564 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32996564
- Alifatisk 3y ago
  Why would the Russians sabotage for themselves?
  - jcranmer 3y ago
    As I said, the motivation isn't particularly compelling. But it should be noted that were Russia to have done it, it wouldn't have lost very much (the pipelines were no longer in operation at the time of the explosion, with NS2 never coming online, and NS1 having been shut off "indefinitely" a few weeks prior) and risked relatively little blowback, as Russia had already lost all credibility in the West when it invaded Ukraine. The gains aren't much, though. Primarily, it would have been a punitive action ("You want to support Ukraine? Okay then, freeze to death come winter!"), although it was noted at the time that the explosions weren't that far from a new Norway-Poland gas pipeline that had just come into service--a demonstration of capability. Unclear attribution could also be used as a lever to try to weaken NATO, by sending the US and EU into mutual recrimination. All said, it looks like a low-risk, low-reward situation for Russia, which isn't exactly compelling evidence.
4gotunameagain 3y ago
I highly doubt the Ukrainians were capable of such an act, especially at that time. What about Biden explicitly stating that the US will destroy the pipeline ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OS4O8rGRLf8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OS4O8rGRLf8
- bryanlarsen 3y ago
  A Der Spiegel investigation shows pretty convincingly that they had the capability. https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/investigating-the-attack-on-nord-stream-all-the-clues-point-toward-kyiv-a-124838c7-992a-4d0e-9894-942d4a665778 https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/investigating-th...

alecco 3y ago

"Swedish prosecutors have said they will end their investigation into the sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines in 2022, dodging the question of who destroyed the then new energy link between Russia and Europe shortly after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine." https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/07/sweden-drop-inquiry-nord-stream-pipeline-explosions https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/07/sweden-drop... And https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_NATO#Membership_aspirations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_NATO#Membersh...

CrzyLngPwd 3y ago

Of course, it was.