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The UK is always just such an interesting place to analyze, in terms of data, because so much of it is open and easily accessible. Here [1] is data on average d

The UK is always just such an interesting place to analyze, in terms of data, because so much of it is open and easily accessible. Here [1] is data on average domestic energy prices in the UK over time. Every year from 2019-2021 it was around £1,300. 2022 it jumps to £2,294. 2023 it's up to £2,592. Median pre-tax weekly earnings are £682 [2], so that's an increase in costs of ~2-3 weeks of wages for the median. It's hard to see that not leading to major economic consequences because it's a double whammy: consumers now have less money, and companies are also paying more as well. I feel there's a rather giant pink elephant in this conversation. --- [1] - https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6582b65223b70a000d234c97/quarterly-energy-prices-december-2023.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6582b65223b70... [2] - https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/annualsurveyofhoursandearnings/2023 https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwor...

pjc50 3y ago
For me the clear indicator is https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/gdp-gross-domestic-product https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/gdp... : that's adjusted for inflation and purchasing power parity, but NOT per capita. Despite population growth we took an absolutely massive hit in 2007 and have only slowly recovered. The energy discourse is a disaster. I remember when there was a protest group campaigning for subsidised insulation; they got clamped down on hard. Mustn't interfere with the gas profits.
- cbeach 3y ago
  The protest group (Insulate Britain) were blocking major motorways like the M25, which is dangerous and disruptive to everyday people trying to get on with their lives and support their families. That’s why there had to be a clampdown. Protesters were arrested for criminal damage, causing danger to road users, willful obstruction of the highway and causing a public nuisance. An injunction was granted prohibiting demonstrators from "causing damage to the surface of or to any apparatus on or around the M25 including but not limited to painting, damaging by fire, or affixing any item or structure thereto". https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insulate_Britain_protests https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insulate_Britain_protests
ksec 3y ago
Which means had UK's energy price were back to Normal at £1,300. We wouldn't be in a recession. Which I believe will happen in Q2 - Q3 2024. And even if it was back to £1,300. It would still be the 4th highest energy price in EUR. But I could see this price even come down as more Wind Energy projects ( hopefully ) comes online. And a possibility of costing only half of that in the 2030s.

pjc50 3y ago

For me the clear indicator is https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/gdp-gross-domestic-product https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/gdp... : that's adjusted for inflation and purchasing power parity, but NOT per capita. Despite population growth we took an absolutely massive hit in 2007 and have only slowly recovered. The energy discourse is a disaster. I remember when there was a protest group campaigning for subsidised insulation; they got clamped down on hard. Mustn't interfere with the gas profits.

cbeach 3y ago
The protest group (Insulate Britain) were blocking major motorways like the M25, which is dangerous and disruptive to everyday people trying to get on with their lives and support their families. That’s why there had to be a clampdown. Protesters were arrested for criminal damage, causing danger to road users, willful obstruction of the highway and causing a public nuisance. An injunction was granted prohibiting demonstrators from "causing damage to the surface of or to any apparatus on or around the M25 including but not limited to painting, damaging by fire, or affixing any item or structure thereto". https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insulate_Britain_protests https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insulate_Britain_protests

ksec 3y ago

Which means had UK's energy price were back to Normal at £1,300. We wouldn't be in a recession. Which I believe will happen in Q2 - Q3 2024. And even if it was back to £1,300. It would still be the 4th highest energy price in EUR. But I could see this price even come down as more Wind Energy projects ( hopefully ) comes online. And a possibility of costing only half of that in the 2030s.