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How much economic slowdown was the result of Brexit? With talks of Irish unification I wonder how long the UK can survive as a major economy. Will the scots ab

by pm90 3y ago

How much economic slowdown was the result of Brexit? With talks of Irish unification I wonder how long the UK can survive as a major economy. Will the scots abandon the sinking ship too?

SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
> How much economic slowdown was the result of Brexit? There will never be a precise answer, and even if there was, someone would deny it for political reasons, but here is an estimate: "Britain’s decision to leave the European Union has hampered the economy to the tune of 5% versus other comparable countries, the estimates showed." https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/14/brexit-has-sliced-5percent-off-uk-economic-growth-goldman-sachs-says.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/14/brexit-has-sliced-5percent-o...
- nvm0n2 3y ago
  [dead]
timthorn 3y ago
Transfer payments to Scotland and NI are very significant - the Union brings value to the UK but, purely economically speaking, secession could be net positive.
polski-g 3y ago
Do the Scots have a sufficient army necessary to beat NATO? How would they survive the UK making an Article 5 declaration?
- cassianoleal 3y ago
  Care to elaborate on what in a supposed Scottish independence would trigger NATO Article 5?
  - ChocolateGod 3y ago
    Obviously Nicola Sturgeon is a secret marxist who plans on invading the not so United Kingdom after independence.
  - polski-g 3y ago
    Because they would need to win a war of independence from their overlord, just as the USA did. A vote is just the first step. Catalonia tried to do something similar a few years ago but they had insufficient planning and the rebellion was put down in under 7 minutes: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/14/world/europe/catalonia-separatists-verdict-spain.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/14/world/europe/catalonia-se...
    - cassianoleal 3y ago
      Would NATO interfere in what's essentially a domestic UK dispute? Could the USA invoke article 5 if Texas decide to secede? Would Spain have invoked article 5 if the Catalans had succeeded, or had gotten closer to it? In any case, would any of those NATO interferences be desired? I mean this by the local governments, but also by the rest of NATO and the world in general? Would there really be any political will inside of NATO to interfere?
    - pjc50 3y ago
      Catalonia did not attempt an armed rebellion; they made a resolution in their parliament and the central government decided to respond to that with violence. I'd rate it below the US Jan 6 incident in terms of armed rebellion.
    - foldr 3y ago
      >The Scottish Independence Referendum Act 2013 set out the arrangements for the referendum and was passed by the Scottish Parliament in November 2013, following an agreement between the devolved Scottish government and the Government of the United Kingdom. The independence proposal required a simple majority to pass.
- maximumeyebrows 3y ago
  Well, Scotland has nuclear armed submarines and England doesn't (following independence, and international law).
- krisoft 3y ago
  > Do the Scots have a sufficient army necessary to beat NATO? As per definition Scotland doesn't have any army, because defense is not a devolved matter. On a practical level the nuclear submarines of the UK have their port facilities in Scotland. On an even more practical level: Good luck to trying wrestle those away from the Navy of course. Everyone assumes that they would be repositioned in case of a secession. In fact a retired admiral opined that they would be moved either to the US or France in case of a Scottish independence[1], because England lacks the necessary port facilities. > How would they survive the UK making an Article 5 declaration? Nobody with half a brain talks about a violent secession. More like something where the people of Scotland declare in a referendum that they don't wish to belong to the Union any more, and they are let go freely. Similar to the Brexit process. 1: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/apr/26/trident-overseas-or-halted-scotland-independence https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/apr/26/trident-over...
- rsynnott 3y ago
  ... An independent Scotland would almost certainly _join_ NATO. I'm not sure why you expect it to declare war on it?

by pm90 3y ago

How much economic slowdown was the result of Brexit? With talks of Irish unification I wonder how long the UK can survive as a major economy. Will the scots abandon the sinking ship too?

SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago

> How much economic slowdown was the result of Brexit? There will never be a precise answer, and even if there was, someone would deny it for political reasons, but here is an estimate: "Britain’s decision to leave the European Union has hampered the economy to the tune of 5% versus other comparable countries, the estimates showed." https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/14/brexit-has-sliced-5percent-off-uk-economic-growth-goldman-sachs-says.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/14/brexit-has-sliced-5percent-o...

nvm0n2 3y ago
[dead]

timthorn 3y ago

Transfer payments to Scotland and NI are very significant - the Union brings value to the UK but, purely economically speaking, secession could be net positive.

polski-g 3y ago

Do the Scots have a sufficient army necessary to beat NATO? How would they survive the UK making an Article 5 declaration?

cassianoleal 3y ago
Care to elaborate on what in a supposed Scottish independence would trigger NATO Article 5?
- ChocolateGod 3y ago
  Obviously Nicola Sturgeon is a secret marxist who plans on invading the not so United Kingdom after independence.
- polski-g 3y ago
  Because they would need to win a war of independence from their overlord, just as the USA did. A vote is just the first step. Catalonia tried to do something similar a few years ago but they had insufficient planning and the rebellion was put down in under 7 minutes: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/14/world/europe/catalonia-separatists-verdict-spain.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/14/world/europe/catalonia-se...
  - cassianoleal 3y ago
    Would NATO interfere in what's essentially a domestic UK dispute? Could the USA invoke article 5 if Texas decide to secede? Would Spain have invoked article 5 if the Catalans had succeeded, or had gotten closer to it? In any case, would any of those NATO interferences be desired? I mean this by the local governments, but also by the rest of NATO and the world in general? Would there really be any political will inside of NATO to interfere?
  - pjc50 3y ago
    Catalonia did not attempt an armed rebellion; they made a resolution in their parliament and the central government decided to respond to that with violence. I'd rate it below the US Jan 6 incident in terms of armed rebellion.
  - foldr 3y ago
    >The Scottish Independence Referendum Act 2013 set out the arrangements for the referendum and was passed by the Scottish Parliament in November 2013, following an agreement between the devolved Scottish government and the Government of the United Kingdom. The independence proposal required a simple majority to pass.
maximumeyebrows 3y ago
Well, Scotland has nuclear armed submarines and England doesn't (following independence, and international law).
krisoft 3y ago
> Do the Scots have a sufficient army necessary to beat NATO? As per definition Scotland doesn't have any army, because defense is not a devolved matter. On a practical level the nuclear submarines of the UK have their port facilities in Scotland. On an even more practical level: Good luck to trying wrestle those away from the Navy of course. Everyone assumes that they would be repositioned in case of a secession. In fact a retired admiral opined that they would be moved either to the US or France in case of a Scottish independence[1], because England lacks the necessary port facilities. > How would they survive the UK making an Article 5 declaration? Nobody with half a brain talks about a violent secession. More like something where the people of Scotland declare in a referendum that they don't wish to belong to the Union any more, and they are let go freely. Similar to the Brexit process. 1: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/apr/26/trident-overseas-or-halted-scotland-independence https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/apr/26/trident-over...
rsynnott 3y ago
... An independent Scotland would almost certainly _join_ NATO. I'm not sure why you expect it to declare war on it?