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UK feels like it's been in recession for years. London seems to be improving though so hopefully it lifts the rest of the country.

FirmwareBurner 3y ago
There really isn't much past evidence for that. Many of UK's cities have been rotting away while London was booming.
- dangerwill 3y ago
  Yup, and London specifically is famous for this relationship with the rest of England + Wales. It's pretty interesting (and depressing) how London has become an Ur-example of internal brain drain
  - nordsieck 3y ago
    I mean, that's the entire reason behind the global rural-to-urban migration that's been going on for well... centuries at this point. It's just more pronounced in the UK (and I'd expect South Korea) because London is such a dominant city in the UK.
    - rantallion 3y ago
      It's a shame that the exodus from London prompted by the Covid lockdowns didn't last. Perhaps we might have seen at least some equalisation across the country. Alas, anything outside of the M25 might as well be another country as far as Westminster is concerned.
      - OJFord 3y ago
        Didn't last in what sense? Egress didn't continue(/ramp up) or significantly reversed?
    - rsynnott 3y ago
      In most places it happens to _more than one city_, though. London's a bit of an oddity (you see this in some smaller countries, but the UK's probably the biggest example).
  - impish9208 3y ago
    What is an “Ur-example”?
    - foldr 3y ago
      https://blogs.transparent.com/german/the-german-prefix-ur/ https://blogs.transparent.com/german/the-german-prefix-ur/
      - noelwelsh 3y ago
        Interesting. I assumed Ur came from the Sumerian city: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ur https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ur It was one of the first cities in the world, and 30-ish years ago I was taught it was the first.
      - OJFord 3y ago
        So it's not actually correctly used here? ('an Ur-anything' - e.g. 'an earliest example' as above - would never make sense for one thing?) I don't understand the intended meaning that's different from just 'example' here.
- pjc50 3y ago
  Cancellation of parts of HS2 (after most of the money has been spent) are of course intended to worsen that.
M2Ys4U 3y ago
Apparently there has been seven quarters of zero or negative growth in real GDP per capita, at least according to this tweet citing Bloomberg: https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1758062742865330410 https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1758062742865330410
- gruez 3y ago
  Not just a tweet, this seems to be confirmed by the ONS as well: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihxw/pn2 https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/times...
PaulKeeble 3y ago
That is the rising inequality. The economy doing better (or worse) really doesn't matter when 95% of people have been getting relatively poorer quickly for the past 15 years and somewhat for over 40 years. The economy doing well or not really doesn't impact anyone but the asset wealthy at this stage, the average person can't afford their bills.
- rchaud 3y ago
  Every development economist has said unequivocally that GDP growth alone is not a reliable measure of economic well-being. Usually this was thought to apply only to poor countries, where inequality was very high as the industrial sectors (where GDP growth mostly came from) were heavily concentrated in a few hands. It wasn't as much the case in rich countries where labour was better organized and had a stronger bargaining position when negotiating pay, so GDP growth did feed through to higher wages. That seems to have stopped in the rich world since the late 2000s. FTSE 100 company profits are up, yet they're pulling out every trick in the book to keep wages at poverty levels.
somenameforme 3y ago
Can you provide some details (re: changes in London) for somebody who knows relatively little of England?
- pjc50 3y ago
  "What do they know of England, who only England know?" -- Kipling (often quoted to make a point about the parochialism of a lot of English politics and its inability to compare against other, distant, foreign places such as Manchester)
- ilikerashers 3y ago
  London just seems to be getting busier again. Trains are busy in the morning, lots of people out and about, restaurants full, and recruiters are starting to ping again on LinkedIn. Given it's been at a low ebb since the pandemic, there is a bit more buzz about the city again. That said, there could be a huge collapse coming later this year but after so much negativity for so long, things may change. The new government should help that (even if they don't do anything!).
drcongo 3y ago
You think it might "trickle down"?
rsynnott 3y ago
I think if you considered London and the rest separately, the rest probably _has_ been in recession for years.

FirmwareBurner 3y ago

There really isn't much past evidence for that. Many of UK's cities have been rotting away while London was booming.

dangerwill 3y ago
Yup, and London specifically is famous for this relationship with the rest of England + Wales. It's pretty interesting (and depressing) how London has become an Ur-example of internal brain drain
- nordsieck 3y ago
  I mean, that's the entire reason behind the global rural-to-urban migration that's been going on for well... centuries at this point. It's just more pronounced in the UK (and I'd expect South Korea) because London is such a dominant city in the UK.
  - rantallion 3y ago
    It's a shame that the exodus from London prompted by the Covid lockdowns didn't last. Perhaps we might have seen at least some equalisation across the country. Alas, anything outside of the M25 might as well be another country as far as Westminster is concerned.
    - OJFord 3y ago
      Didn't last in what sense? Egress didn't continue(/ramp up) or significantly reversed?
  - rsynnott 3y ago
    In most places it happens to _more than one city_, though. London's a bit of an oddity (you see this in some smaller countries, but the UK's probably the biggest example).
- impish9208 3y ago
  What is an “Ur-example”?
  - foldr 3y ago
    https://blogs.transparent.com/german/the-german-prefix-ur/ https://blogs.transparent.com/german/the-german-prefix-ur/
    - noelwelsh 3y ago
      Interesting. I assumed Ur came from the Sumerian city: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ur https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ur It was one of the first cities in the world, and 30-ish years ago I was taught it was the first.
    - OJFord 3y ago
      So it's not actually correctly used here? ('an Ur-anything' - e.g. 'an earliest example' as above - would never make sense for one thing?) I don't understand the intended meaning that's different from just 'example' here.
pjc50 3y ago
Cancellation of parts of HS2 (after most of the money has been spent) are of course intended to worsen that.

M2Ys4U 3y ago

Apparently there has been seven quarters of zero or negative growth in real GDP per capita, at least according to this tweet citing Bloomberg: https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1758062742865330410 https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1758062742865330410

gruez 3y ago
Not just a tweet, this seems to be confirmed by the ONS as well: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihxw/pn2 https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/times...

PaulKeeble 3y ago

That is the rising inequality. The economy doing better (or worse) really doesn't matter when 95% of people have been getting relatively poorer quickly for the past 15 years and somewhat for over 40 years. The economy doing well or not really doesn't impact anyone but the asset wealthy at this stage, the average person can't afford their bills.

rchaud 3y ago
Every development economist has said unequivocally that GDP growth alone is not a reliable measure of economic well-being. Usually this was thought to apply only to poor countries, where inequality was very high as the industrial sectors (where GDP growth mostly came from) were heavily concentrated in a few hands. It wasn't as much the case in rich countries where labour was better organized and had a stronger bargaining position when negotiating pay, so GDP growth did feed through to higher wages. That seems to have stopped in the rich world since the late 2000s. FTSE 100 company profits are up, yet they're pulling out every trick in the book to keep wages at poverty levels.

somenameforme 3y ago

Can you provide some details (re: changes in London) for somebody who knows relatively little of England?

pjc50 3y ago
"What do they know of England, who only England know?" -- Kipling (often quoted to make a point about the parochialism of a lot of English politics and its inability to compare against other, distant, foreign places such as Manchester)
ilikerashers 3y ago
London just seems to be getting busier again. Trains are busy in the morning, lots of people out and about, restaurants full, and recruiters are starting to ping again on LinkedIn. Given it's been at a low ebb since the pandemic, there is a bit more buzz about the city again. That said, there could be a huge collapse coming later this year but after so much negativity for so long, things may change. The new government should help that (even if they don't do anything!).

drcongo 3y ago

You think it might "trickle down"?

rsynnott 3y ago

I think if you considered London and the rest separately, the rest probably _has_ been in recession for years.