3 ms·
> One just has to accept that the biomedicine people can kill everybody This is falling back into the binary thinking of can vs cannot. I want to re-emphasize
by hackerlight 3y ago
> One just has to accept that the biomedicine people can kill everybody
This is falling back into the binary thinking of can vs cannot. I want to re-emphasize probabilities, magnitudes and speeds.
If 1 out of 1 billion people are insane enough to do it, but only 20k people can do it, that's (1-1e-9)^20000 = 0.99998 chance that it won't happen.
If you invent a technology that puts this capability in the hands of 1 billion people, that probability changes to 0.36789 that it won't happen. Over a sufficient number of generations (N) of people, the probability that it won't happen goes down to 0.36789^N, a very small number. On a long enough time horizon (say, 200 years), we are dead.
It's why nuclear proliferation is bad. If only 2 countries have nukes, the chances of a nuclear first strike are (1-p)^2. We probably survive because it probably won't happen. If every country has nukes, it becomes (1-p)^200 (this isn't exactly correct because superpowers have more nukes, and the probability of war between any pair of countries isn't i.i.d. with another pair of countries, among other assumptions, but it's fine for a conceptual first scratch). If every person has nukes, it's (1-p)^8billion, and we are definitely dead.
This idea that decentralization is automatically good is quite silly. It is good in many areas. But decentralized nukes or decentralized gain of function virus research is categorically bad. You really have to scrutinize what it is you're making accessible.
- impossiblefork 3y agoI think it's conditional. I think at least 1/100 people are insane enough to do it under certain conditions, but won't under normal conditions. Imagine for example, that you lost your political suffrage, or your city came under attack from abroad, with shelling etc? In the first case of course you would, I imagine? I don't think I can imagine doing it in the second case, unless there are particular circumstances, but if there's something aggravating-- you're being driven from your final refuge or something like that, then it's not so unreasonable any more.