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Lotteries are a tax on people who are desperate, not ignorant. Even if you understand the math, your utility function changes so that you're willing to trade a

Lotteries are a tax on people who are desperate, not ignorant. Even if you understand the math, your utility function changes so that you're willing to trade a small expected loss for the long shot chance of solving all your problems. I don't buy the idea that swathes of lottery players really think they're making a value bet. Just because they respond with anecdotal evidence when you confront them with the true odds, doesn't mean they're really arguing the facts, they're just protecting their hopes.

JoachimSchipper 14y ago
This is a really interesting idea. Do you have any evidence, anecdotal or otherwise?
- tdubhro1 14y ago
  A good starting point for more rigorous evidence: http://stoppredatorygambling.org/category/research-center/lotteries-who-really-plays/ http://stoppredatorygambling.org/category/research-center/lo... I've been interested in the topic for a long time as I have a relative who spends most of his income on lottery tickets. Any time I can, I ask people who play the lottery why they do it. Most of them spend a tiny amount and it's something they have a little bit of fun with their workmates or family, these are the "normals". But about 20% of the players account for 80% of the ticket revenue, these are the people playing out of desperation because they are in a poverty trap and they have no other way out. They are foregoing essentials to pay for the lottery tickets, so if they didn't play, they wouldn't accrue the money they "saved". These people are often on the brink: depressed, panicked and alone. A lottery ticket is a temporary "self medication" with which they can temporarily quiet their anxieties, until of course, they need the next hit.
  - gfodor 14y ago
    thanks for the link. I have never spent much time thinking about the ethics of the lottery and this was quite stunning.

JoachimSchipper 14y ago

This is a really interesting idea. Do you have any evidence, anecdotal or otherwise?

tdubhro1 14y ago
A good starting point for more rigorous evidence: http://stoppredatorygambling.org/category/research-center/lotteries-who-really-plays/ http://stoppredatorygambling.org/category/research-center/lo... I've been interested in the topic for a long time as I have a relative who spends most of his income on lottery tickets. Any time I can, I ask people who play the lottery why they do it. Most of them spend a tiny amount and it's something they have a little bit of fun with their workmates or family, these are the "normals". But about 20% of the players account for 80% of the ticket revenue, these are the people playing out of desperation because they are in a poverty trap and they have no other way out. They are foregoing essentials to pay for the lottery tickets, so if they didn't play, they wouldn't accrue the money they "saved". These people are often on the brink: depressed, panicked and alone. A lottery ticket is a temporary "self medication" with which they can temporarily quiet their anxieties, until of course, they need the next hit.
- gfodor 14y ago
  thanks for the link. I have never spent much time thinking about the ethics of the lottery and this was quite stunning.