Rumsfeld was referring to a way of categorizing uncertainties in a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive way. There are many scenarios that are genuine

Rumsfeld was referring to a way of categorizing uncertainties in a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive way. There are many scenarios that are genuinely unknowable - it has nothing to do with competence. He probably saw the matrix on a McKinsey consultants slide earlier that day while they were using their 6 months of strategy consulting experience out of college to help him run the war.