4 ms·

If you don't like Tesla's methodology, what data do you need to determine how much more unsafe Teslas are compared to humans? You sound like you have the data:

by judge2020 3y ago

If you don't like Tesla's methodology, what data do you need to determine how much more unsafe Teslas are compared to humans? You sound like you have the data: > Go through the NHTSA public database, there are dozens and dozens of Tesla ADAS crashes. Those are just the reported ones. Why hasn't anyone else, or you, directly published conflicting data to show that it's less safe? "debunking" some statistics might be correct but it's not convincing, and definitely won't result in any action you might want to see from regulatory bodies.

ra7 3y ago
> what data do you need to determine how much more unsafe Teslas are compared to humans? Tesla should start by first reporting disengagement data to CA DMV like every other self driving company. It shows FSD's rate of progress. Then they should take all their crashes, normalize for different factors I mentioned earlier and then make a comparison. See how Waymo does it: https://waymo.com/blog/2023/12/waymo-significantly-outperforms-comparable-human-benchmarks-over-7-million/ https://waymo.com/blog/2023/12/waymo-significantly-outperfor.... They have multiple white papers on their methodology. Go through it, if you're interested to see what apples-to-apples comparison looks like. > Why hasn't anyone else, or you, directly published conflicting data to show that it's less safe? Because Tesla redacts every single reported crash to point that it's useless. Is FSD enabled or Autopilot? Not reported. FSD version? Redacted. Injury? Unknown. Description? Redacted. Good luck trying to glean any information from it. This is by design to prevent independent analysis of their performance. Be transparent like everyone else. You know it's fishy when they're actively trying to hide things.
ra7 3y ago
By the way, if you want to see missing data in action, I did some legwork: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39375581 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39375581

ra7 3y ago

> what data do you need to determine how much more unsafe Teslas are compared to humans? Tesla should start by first reporting disengagement data to CA DMV like every other self driving company. It shows FSD's rate of progress. Then they should take all their crashes, normalize for different factors I mentioned earlier and then make a comparison. See how Waymo does it: https://waymo.com/blog/2023/12/waymo-significantly-outperforms-comparable-human-benchmarks-over-7-million/ https://waymo.com/blog/2023/12/waymo-significantly-outperfor.... They have multiple white papers on their methodology. Go through it, if you're interested to see what apples-to-apples comparison looks like. > Why hasn't anyone else, or you, directly published conflicting data to show that it's less safe? Because Tesla redacts every single reported crash to point that it's useless. Is FSD enabled or Autopilot? Not reported. FSD version? Redacted. Injury? Unknown. Description? Redacted. Good luck trying to glean any information from it. This is by design to prevent independent analysis of their performance. Be transparent like everyone else. You know it's fishy when they're actively trying to hide things.

ra7 3y ago

By the way, if you want to see missing data in action, I did some legwork: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39375581 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39375581