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> since it incentivises starting new dating apps It might, but there are lots of sticky things in human behaviour. A person fully aware of the situation in you

> since it incentivises starting new dating apps It might, but there are lots of sticky things in human behaviour. A person fully aware of the situation in your statement, and only looking for money may do so, but the vast majority of people (off HN) likely do not have the skills (tech/business), do not care about the skills, might not want to start a company or simply are happy enough with their life to not want to rock the boat too much. Here's a mathematical question: if you could flip a coin, with a 50% chance of getting a billion dollars, and a 50% chance of never having more than $1000 in your bank, would you flip the coin? The "mathematically correct" answer would be to take the bet, but the rational decision any well-settled person would take is very likely not to flip.

Terretta 3y ago
So, 50/50 of a billion dollars, or having to financially engineer to operate within $1000 a day* cash flow? You're right, there's only one rational bet. * More if you set up with a bank with intraday transfers.
- user_7832 3y ago
  Not a revenue of $1000, but always being $1000 away from being in debt. ...yeah I get "what if I spent $900 on a purchase and got the money back the next day" is a valid criticism, but I mean, just above poverty. By the way the P(expected) = (1 billion * 0.5) + ((almost) zero * 0.5) = a very respectable 500 million, which even at $1000 a day would take 500,000 days or over a thousand years.
  - intrasight 3y ago
    > but always being $1000 away from being in debt As in like 70% of Americans
    - user_7832 3y ago
      Yes, quite likely. Which is why I specified > any well-settled person I would expect the average SWE on HN to be worth more than a $1000. (Of course there are exceptions, I'm not an SWE myself but I'm only talking about the average person for simplicity.)
    - BurningFrog 3y ago
      The median net worth of Americans is solidly in 6 figures. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/28/americans-median-net-worth-by-age.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/28/americans-median-net-worth-b...
  - Terretta 3y ago
    > Not a revenue of $1000, but always being $1000 away from being in debt. On the contrary, the bet posed was "Here's a mathematical question: if you could flip a coin, with a 50% chance of getting a billion dollars, and a 50% chance of never having more than $1000 in your bank, would you flip the coin?" It's a cash cap, not a risk statement. So by the terms, you do just need to set up a way to ensure a cash flow to you while you continue to build up more illiquid safety net and ensure fewer and fewer things cost you money even if you don't own them. Even if you want to reframe as always being $1000 away from being in debt, that's easy, there are financial arrangements that can let you structure extraordinary assurance that $1000 would never dip below zero, even if you accept it as a narrow lane between the cap and bankruptcy.

Terretta 3y ago

So, 50/50 of a billion dollars, or having to financially engineer to operate within $1000 a day* cash flow? You're right, there's only one rational bet. * More if you set up with a bank with intraday transfers.

user_7832 3y ago
Not a revenue of $1000, but always being $1000 away from being in debt. ...yeah I get "what if I spent $900 on a purchase and got the money back the next day" is a valid criticism, but I mean, just above poverty. By the way the P(expected) = (1 billion * 0.5) + ((almost) zero * 0.5) = a very respectable 500 million, which even at $1000 a day would take 500,000 days or over a thousand years.
- intrasight 3y ago
  > but always being $1000 away from being in debt As in like 70% of Americans
  - user_7832 3y ago
    Yes, quite likely. Which is why I specified > any well-settled person I would expect the average SWE on HN to be worth more than a $1000. (Of course there are exceptions, I'm not an SWE myself but I'm only talking about the average person for simplicity.)
  - BurningFrog 3y ago
    The median net worth of Americans is solidly in 6 figures. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/28/americans-median-net-worth-by-age.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/28/americans-median-net-worth-b...
- Terretta 3y ago
  > Not a revenue of $1000, but always being $1000 away from being in debt. On the contrary, the bet posed was "Here's a mathematical question: if you could flip a coin, with a 50% chance of getting a billion dollars, and a 50% chance of never having more than $1000 in your bank, would you flip the coin?" It's a cash cap, not a risk statement. So by the terms, you do just need to set up a way to ensure a cash flow to you while you continue to build up more illiquid safety net and ensure fewer and fewer things cost you money even if you don't own them. Even if you want to reframe as always being $1000 away from being in debt, that's easy, there are financial arrangements that can let you structure extraordinary assurance that $1000 would never dip below zero, even if you accept it as a narrow lane between the cap and bankruptcy.