> I'm willing to bet that the models on this have or are converging on within 5-10 years as opposed to multiple decades, given the propensity to report on best

> I'm willing to bet that the models on this have or are converging on within 5-10 years as opposed to multiple decades, given the propensity to report on best case scenarios It's true that historically climate science (especially UN climate science) has been politically-intertwined, which has colored the message. But you can't apply a global adjustment to all reported results, with the expectation that everything is underreported. It may be underreported. It may be overreported. But the reported results are the results. Without digging into the model (and likely having climate modeling expertise), it's impossible to classify the error direction and magnitude more closely. ... that said, I think ocean currents are one of the more reliable models, because of their scale and the amount of sampling that's been and is being done.