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As a robotics person outside this space, it's not amazing that the shift to L4 as a goal has not been clearly grok'd by the public. After years of rhetoric, mo

As a robotics person outside this space, it's not amazing that the shift to L4 as a goal has not been clearly grok'd by the public. After years of rhetoric, most people still believe that cars will be fully autonomous because they just don't understand the limitations. It's also quite amazing to me we, the so called smart ones, ever believed level 5 was happening but those were the good old days, huh.

faeriechangling 3y ago
It's hard to impossible for me to know how difficult level 5 driving even is since we don't have any machine that can do it. Trying to achieve it has been a good example of turtles all the way down. At the same time I feel like people are ignoring how well self-driving works RIGHT NOW, the rate of accidents is still less than with human drivers. So I'm still pretty optimistic.
- paulryanrogers 3y ago
  How can you know if Tesla won't publicly release stats of interventions or accident per 100k miles?
  - bluGill 3y ago
    There is Cruise and Waymo data as well. Though I have not seen anyone independent who has access to that data making any claims about it being safer.
- jvanderbot 3y ago
  > It's hard to impossible for me to know how difficult level 5 driving even is I have slightly a different opinion. I think you can easily guesstimate how difficult something will be by listing the "new" stuff. But I think you can't easily estimate how easy something will be because you can't list everything, so anything you miss could easily delay. Said another way: We should have known it would take at least a decade, but should never have said it will take at most two decades. (as technologists). And yeah - agree - lvl 3 is pretty good, feature-wise.
lern_too_spel 3y ago
L4 is all that's needed for a taxi service, and that's where all the money is. Tesla sold cars with "FSD" to customers living anywhere, so they have to solve L5, and they have to do it with fewer sensors and less compute. Of course it's not going to work. We're all just waiting for the other shoe to drop for the inevitable lawsuits.

faeriechangling 3y ago

It's hard to impossible for me to know how difficult level 5 driving even is since we don't have any machine that can do it. Trying to achieve it has been a good example of turtles all the way down. At the same time I feel like people are ignoring how well self-driving works RIGHT NOW, the rate of accidents is still less than with human drivers. So I'm still pretty optimistic.

paulryanrogers 3y ago
How can you know if Tesla won't publicly release stats of interventions or accident per 100k miles?
- bluGill 3y ago
  There is Cruise and Waymo data as well. Though I have not seen anyone independent who has access to that data making any claims about it being safer.
jvanderbot 3y ago
> It's hard to impossible for me to know how difficult level 5 driving even is I have slightly a different opinion. I think you can easily guesstimate how difficult something will be by listing the "new" stuff. But I think you can't easily estimate how easy something will be because you can't list everything, so anything you miss could easily delay. Said another way: We should have known it would take at least a decade, but should never have said it will take at most two decades. (as technologists). And yeah - agree - lvl 3 is pretty good, feature-wise.

lern_too_spel 3y ago

L4 is all that's needed for a taxi service, and that's where all the money is. Tesla sold cars with "FSD" to customers living anywhere, so they have to solve L5, and they have to do it with fewer sensors and less compute. Of course it's not going to work. We're all just waiting for the other shoe to drop for the inevitable lawsuits.