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I've read everything I can about climate change at this point, having both been actively trying to keep aware of the issue for over a decade and really accelera

I've read everything I can about climate change at this point, having both been actively trying to keep aware of the issue for over a decade and really accelerating my knowledge as much as someone who isn't a climate scientist can. The thing I will say about this is that the communication often given to traditional news outlets is actually holding back[0]. Things are already much worse than they thought it would be, and its accelerating faster than they thought it would, but many in the community feel that if they didn't include some positive messaging - even if subtle - that the average person (and therefore, most of society) would lament to doom and do nothing, as opposed to trying to move the needle as much as possible, even though we can't escape many (if not all?) the worst issues wrought by climate change. I'm willing to bet that the models on this have or are converging on within 5-10 years as opposed to multiple decades, given the propensity to report on best case scenarios [0]: https://www.wbur.org/cognoscenti/2023/10/03/1-5-degrees-celcius-un-climate-change-report-barbara-moran https://www.wbur.org/cognoscenti/2023/10/03/1-5-degrees-celc...

intended 3y ago
I think this idea made sense in the era of the time, when climate science had to beg and be polite to survive on the airwaves, lest they be obliterated once again by people like Rupert Murdoch. That era is, to an extent, gone. May as well be clear about the challenge at this point - because the issue isn't people, its organizational. To move the needle at those depths of power, the regular joe needs large, coordinated power.
mistrial9 3y ago
in a graduate program for green minded people, this was discussed in detail for months on end. Basically from a mass communication point of view, you are right. You cannot simply declare unsolvable doom and expect results. It is psychologically and emotionally too much. You get polarized people who argue, deny, mock or despair, commit slow or fast suicide, etc.. Skilled communicators start and stop with something that is accessible to the listener. There has to be a binding element of some kind to cause the listener to be bonded to the speakers, in some way, directly or indirectly... even if the path forward is not clear
boppo1 3y ago
Can someone chime in to explain more specifically the realistic details of extreme climate we should expect within 5 to 10 years?
- lm28469 3y ago
  Based on past events that we assume were caused by similar events: > Modelled 21st century warming under the "intermediate" global warming scenario (top). The potential collapse of the subpolar gyre in this scenario (middle). The collapse of the entire Atlantic Meriditional Overturning Circulation (bottom). https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cd/Sgubin2017_spg_amoc_collapse.jpg https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cd/Sgubin20... The truth is whatever happens will fuck us up big time, we're way too dependant on existing infrastructures/agricultures/city hubs/&c. none of it would be moveable in such a short period. Allies were fighting on airports tarmacs for masks during covid, imagine what would happen in this scenarios
  - trilbyglens 3y ago
    I really wonder what the best mitigation strategy in this time line is going to be for individuals. My own is to have an EU passport and an American passport. It's hard to tell which of these regions will fare better, but having a hedge strategy seems to be the way. The US has more climate zones, but Europe is far more socially functional and might do better in terms of collective action and survival. Not to mention car dependency in the US might prove to be a death blow to many types of sustainable living models. Also, Americans are going to fall to pieces when even the smallest amount of convenience is ripped away from them.
- silverquiet 3y ago
  My suspicion is that no one really knows; telling the future is always difficult. The consequences of adding carbon to the atmosphere will continue to accumulate as more carbon is added (and the really scary part is when feedback loops kick in that then add more carbon on their own). In 5 years, it will be a bit worse, and then in 10, a bit more. I think about what it must feel like to be a teenager today to be staring down decades of this.
ethbr1 3y ago
> I'm willing to bet that the models on this have or are converging on within 5-10 years as opposed to multiple decades, given the propensity to report on best case scenarios It's true that historically climate science (especially UN climate science) has been politically-intertwined, which has colored the message. But you can't apply a global adjustment to all reported results, with the expectation that everything is underreported. It may be underreported. It may be overreported. But the reported results are the results. Without digging into the model (and likely having climate modeling expertise), it's impossible to classify the error direction and magnitude more closely. ... that said, I think ocean currents are one of the more reliable models, because of their scale and the amount of sampling that's been and is being done.

intended 3y ago

I think this idea made sense in the era of the time, when climate science had to beg and be polite to survive on the airwaves, lest they be obliterated once again by people like Rupert Murdoch. That era is, to an extent, gone. May as well be clear about the challenge at this point - because the issue isn't people, its organizational. To move the needle at those depths of power, the regular joe needs large, coordinated power.

mistrial9 3y ago

in a graduate program for green minded people, this was discussed in detail for months on end. Basically from a mass communication point of view, you are right. You cannot simply declare unsolvable doom and expect results. It is psychologically and emotionally too much. You get polarized people who argue, deny, mock or despair, commit slow or fast suicide, etc.. Skilled communicators start and stop with something that is accessible to the listener. There has to be a binding element of some kind to cause the listener to be bonded to the speakers, in some way, directly or indirectly... even if the path forward is not clear

boppo1 3y ago

Can someone chime in to explain more specifically the realistic details of extreme climate we should expect within 5 to 10 years?

lm28469 3y ago
Based on past events that we assume were caused by similar events: > Modelled 21st century warming under the "intermediate" global warming scenario (top). The potential collapse of the subpolar gyre in this scenario (middle). The collapse of the entire Atlantic Meriditional Overturning Circulation (bottom). https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cd/Sgubin2017_spg_amoc_collapse.jpg https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cd/Sgubin20... The truth is whatever happens will fuck us up big time, we're way too dependant on existing infrastructures/agricultures/city hubs/&c. none of it would be moveable in such a short period. Allies were fighting on airports tarmacs for masks during covid, imagine what would happen in this scenarios
- trilbyglens 3y ago
  I really wonder what the best mitigation strategy in this time line is going to be for individuals. My own is to have an EU passport and an American passport. It's hard to tell which of these regions will fare better, but having a hedge strategy seems to be the way. The US has more climate zones, but Europe is far more socially functional and might do better in terms of collective action and survival. Not to mention car dependency in the US might prove to be a death blow to many types of sustainable living models. Also, Americans are going to fall to pieces when even the smallest amount of convenience is ripped away from them.
silverquiet 3y ago
My suspicion is that no one really knows; telling the future is always difficult. The consequences of adding carbon to the atmosphere will continue to accumulate as more carbon is added (and the really scary part is when feedback loops kick in that then add more carbon on their own). In 5 years, it will be a bit worse, and then in 10, a bit more. I think about what it must feel like to be a teenager today to be staring down decades of this.

ethbr1 3y ago

> I'm willing to bet that the models on this have or are converging on within 5-10 years as opposed to multiple decades, given the propensity to report on best case scenarios It's true that historically climate science (especially UN climate science) has been politically-intertwined, which has colored the message. But you can't apply a global adjustment to all reported results, with the expectation that everything is underreported. It may be underreported. It may be overreported. But the reported results are the results. Without digging into the model (and likely having climate modeling expertise), it's impossible to classify the error direction and magnitude more closely. ... that said, I think ocean currents are one of the more reliable models, because of their scale and the amount of sampling that's been and is being done.