3 ms·
It's not 1:1, and only fits over long periods of time. Furthermore, none of those studies encompass the great money printing period of COVID, and post COVID.
by jgalt212 3y ago
It's not 1:1, and only fits over long periods of time. Furthermore, none of those studies encompass the great money printing period of COVID, and post COVID. And most of those studies model the 10Y rate vs stocks. The 10Y rate is not the risk free rate.
In 2000 the SP500 PE was 40, and fed funds was 6%. it's low 20s now, and fed funds is 5.25%
studies over more recent times have shown this correlation break down. It's probably the reason Ray Dalio retired.
- FredPret 3y agoIf a 10 yr T bill isn’t risk free, what is? A shorter term US Gov bond? I mean realistically the US will just print the money it needs to pay that interest. It’s not a consequence-free decision for them, but much better than defaulting.
- jgalt212 3y ago10Y has duration risk. 1 week T bill have no credit risk or duration risk, hence this is the risk free rate.
- pclmulqdq 3y agoThat's not true at all. The "risk free rate" is a theoretical concept that represents the rate of return that you can get on capital without taking any risk. No bond alone is the risk free rate. Neither is the reverse repo rate or the rate of a money market. All of these are proxies.