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China's Shipyards Are Ready for a Protracted War. America's Aren't

6 points by sam345 3y ago

sam345 3y ago
No paywall: https://archive.is/wCPmy https://archive.is/wCPmy
bell-cot 3y ago
First Reaction: Irrelevant, because America falls miserably short of being able to fight any sort of "protracted" war with China.
jqpabc123 3y ago
In a "protracted war", ships will be better known as "high value targets" --- just waiting for a cheap (relative to the cost of the ship) missile, drone or bomb to take them out. Sinking an expensive ship is not a technological problem, it is a political one. In any sort of "protracted war", political restraints would presumably be removed. In which case, a bigger problem will become apparent --- how to make such a war "protracted". Any such attempt would likely be over in a matter of days.
prirun 3y ago
I assume in a war the shipyards would be bombed.
- simonblack 3y ago
  The bombers have to reach those shipyards first. And there aren't unlimited numbers of bombers to start with. Or invulnerable airfields for those bombers to take off from. Anyway, bombers are so last-century.
simonblack 3y ago
In the Pacific War in the 1940s, the US was able to build replacements for its ships that were sunk, but Japan wasn't. Japan started the war with about 3 times the number of carriers than the US had, but soon ran out of carriers (and other ships). The US meanwhile had the manufacturing capacity to replace its lost ships and build extras. In today's world, China has the manufacturing capacity to outbuild and replace lost ships and the US hasn't. The US should not repeat Japan's mistake of starting a war that it doesn't have the capacity to win. But it seems it will. History always repeats. EDIT: Downvoted rapidly. Seems Americans just can't let go of that 'We're Exceptional!' mindset. Actually, that's a very good thing.
- jfengel 3y ago
  That was nearly a century ago. Warfare has changed a lot. Learning lessons is good, but not to the point of preparing to fight the last war. I have no idea what capacities are really needed for the next war. If there is one. The US is vastly outspending China militarily, and there's good reason to think that the real Chinese advantage is not preparing for a war at all.

6 points by sam345 3y ago

No paywall: https://archive.is/wCPmy https://archive.is/wCPmy

First Reaction: Irrelevant, because America falls miserably short of being able to fight any sort of "protracted" war with China.

jqpabc123 3y ago

In a "protracted war", ships will be better known as "high value targets" --- just waiting for a cheap (relative to the cost of the ship) missile, drone or bomb to take them out. Sinking an expensive ship is not a technological problem, it is a political one. In any sort of "protracted war", political restraints would presumably be removed. In which case, a bigger problem will become apparent --- how to make such a war "protracted". Any such attempt would likely be over in a matter of days.

prirun 3y ago

I assume in a war the shipyards would be bombed.

simonblack 3y ago
The bombers have to reach those shipyards first. And there aren't unlimited numbers of bombers to start with. Or invulnerable airfields for those bombers to take off from. Anyway, bombers are so last-century.

simonblack 3y ago

In the Pacific War in the 1940s, the US was able to build replacements for its ships that were sunk, but Japan wasn't. Japan started the war with about 3 times the number of carriers than the US had, but soon ran out of carriers (and other ships). The US meanwhile had the manufacturing capacity to replace its lost ships and build extras. In today's world, China has the manufacturing capacity to outbuild and replace lost ships and the US hasn't. The US should not repeat Japan's mistake of starting a war that it doesn't have the capacity to win. But it seems it will. History always repeats. EDIT: Downvoted rapidly. Seems Americans just can't let go of that 'We're Exceptional!' mindset. Actually, that's a very good thing.

jfengel 3y ago
That was nearly a century ago. Warfare has changed a lot. Learning lessons is good, but not to the point of preparing to fight the last war. I have no idea what capacities are really needed for the next war. If there is one. The US is vastly outspending China militarily, and there's good reason to think that the real Chinese advantage is not preparing for a war at all.