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>When I think of "suppressed" demand, I think of economically useful demand that needs to exist. Because cars have so many unpriced externalities (smog-forming

>When I think of "suppressed" demand, I think of economically useful demand that needs to exist. Because cars have so many unpriced externalities (smog-forming pollution, oil spills, noise-induced stress, tire microplastic dust, undercompensation for pedestrian deaths, etc), often the demand is not actually "economically useful" in the final analysis. That's the elephant in the room. Since we apparently won't accept carbon/congestion pricing, then (as a fallback) any rational policymaker should want to suppress car demand. Paradoxically this improves economic efficiency, by helping counteract the perverse Externalization Subsidy. EDIT: Policymakers can sometimes go too far, of course, or not far enough. Policy requires tuning. That's the downside of using central planning instead of Economist's Own(TM) straight sin tax, but again apparently we won't do that.

ars 3y ago
You are vastly overinflating the negative parts of the a car, and undercounting the positive. There are figures for the negative externalities of cars, they are not hard to find. They don't even come close to the economic activity made possible by cars. A policymaker that suppresses car demand will kill his city. And we are going to get front row seats to see if I'm right: Manhattan congestion pricing is coming, so we'll find out. I predict it's gone within 3 years. I also predict the New Jersey roads that go around Manhattan are going to get slammed as people who just need to go through Manhattan to the rest of New York avoid it and head North to go around it. This will add enormous congestion, and the net result will be far worse traffic everywhere except central Manhattan.
- opportune 3y ago
  Worse traffic everywhere except Manhattan is the point. Whether it’s so bad that the policy is net-negative is an open question. Over a long period of time I think traffic patterns will shift as society structures itself away from NJ-LI commutes (people moving to the area or accepting new jobs avoid that route, etc)
  - ars 3y ago
    So it's great if you live in Manhattan and never leave it. It will be worse for you in all other cases. But since I assume people in Manhattan also travel I suspect it will be a net negative for everyone.
    - zip1234 3y ago
      So there is no other way to get to and from Manhattan except driving?
      - hughesjj 3y ago
        For real, I'm laughing my ass off over here at these people who clearly don't know what they're talking about. Who tf drives in Manhattan unless they don't know better or are doing a day trip? I don't get how you can be so ignorant that you actually forget public transit even exists. Man, they're missing out, I wish the Paris metro was the norm in any city over 500k
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- estebank 3y ago
  > A policymaker that suppresses car demand will kill his city. And we are going to get front row seats to see if I'm right: Manhattan congestion pricing is coming, so we'll find out. I predict it's gone within 3 years. Famously dead cities, London, Paris and Tokyo.
  - ars 3y ago
    I knew someone would say that. But take a look at a map - how do you get to Brooklyn from New Jersey without going through Manhattan? That's the difference. Those other cities have vastly different geographies. The congestion is about protecting the city center, but Manhattan traffic is quite different.
    - estebank 3y ago
      Do you have any example of a city that had the effect you claim? And to push this conversation further into antagonism, why should the people of Manhattan prioritize people going from New Yersey to Brooklyn by car? The person doing that trip would prefer it if all of Manhattan were completely flattened and turned into a collection highways and bridges, but people live there. If anything, the current state of NY and it's surroundings is precisely the result of attempting to do precisely that. In the cities I mentioned you have the same situation. If someone lived in Croydon but needed to get to Wembley or Edmonton, you're not gonna find a highway connecting those two places. But you will find a train that or tube that gets you there, faster than if you'd driven.
    - richiebful1 3y ago
      It's pretty normal in other cities to drive around the city center to get to outlying suburbs on the other side. The Verrazano Narrows Bridge (I-278) and George Washington Bridge (I-95) are far better suited to cross-region travel than cutting across Lower Manhattan on roads with intersections every block. That said, NYC needs to get better at thru-running trains across jurisdictions to make metro area crossing journeys easier
      - theluketaylor 3y ago

ars 3y ago

You are vastly overinflating the negative parts of the a car, and undercounting the positive. There are figures for the negative externalities of cars, they are not hard to find. They don't even come close to the economic activity made possible by cars. A policymaker that suppresses car demand will kill his city. And we are going to get front row seats to see if I'm right: Manhattan congestion pricing is coming, so we'll find out. I predict it's gone within 3 years. I also predict the New Jersey roads that go around Manhattan are going to get slammed as people who just need to go through Manhattan to the rest of New York avoid it and head North to go around it. This will add enormous congestion, and the net result will be far worse traffic everywhere except central Manhattan.

opportune 3y ago
Worse traffic everywhere except Manhattan is the point. Whether it’s so bad that the policy is net-negative is an open question. Over a long period of time I think traffic patterns will shift as society structures itself away from NJ-LI commutes (people moving to the area or accepting new jobs avoid that route, etc)
- ars 3y ago
  So it's great if you live in Manhattan and never leave it. It will be worse for you in all other cases. But since I assume people in Manhattan also travel I suspect it will be a net negative for everyone.
  - zip1234 3y ago
    So there is no other way to get to and from Manhattan except driving?
    - hughesjj 3y ago
      For real, I'm laughing my ass off over here at these people who clearly don't know what they're talking about. Who tf drives in Manhattan unless they don't know better or are doing a day trip? I don't get how you can be so ignorant that you actually forget public transit even exists. Man, they're missing out, I wish the Paris metro was the norm in any city over 500k
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
estebank 3y ago
> A policymaker that suppresses car demand will kill his city. And we are going to get front row seats to see if I'm right: Manhattan congestion pricing is coming, so we'll find out. I predict it's gone within 3 years. Famously dead cities, London, Paris and Tokyo.
- ars 3y ago
  I knew someone would say that. But take a look at a map - how do you get to Brooklyn from New Jersey without going through Manhattan? That's the difference. Those other cities have vastly different geographies. The congestion is about protecting the city center, but Manhattan traffic is quite different.
  - estebank 3y ago
    Do you have any example of a city that had the effect you claim? And to push this conversation further into antagonism, why should the people of Manhattan prioritize people going from New Yersey to Brooklyn by car? The person doing that trip would prefer it if all of Manhattan were completely flattened and turned into a collection highways and bridges, but people live there. If anything, the current state of NY and it's surroundings is precisely the result of attempting to do precisely that. In the cities I mentioned you have the same situation. If someone lived in Croydon but needed to get to Wembley or Edmonton, you're not gonna find a highway connecting those two places. But you will find a train that or tube that gets you there, faster than if you'd driven.
  - richiebful1 3y ago
    It's pretty normal in other cities to drive around the city center to get to outlying suburbs on the other side. The Verrazano Narrows Bridge (I-278) and George Washington Bridge (I-95) are far better suited to cross-region travel than cutting across Lower Manhattan on roads with intersections every block. That said, NYC needs to get better at thru-running trains across jurisdictions to make metro area crossing journeys easier
    - theluketaylor 3y ago