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If one person can suddenly do 90% of the work of 100, then all 100 are going to take a massive cut in pay or hours, or 90% of them are going to be looking for a
by observationist 3y ago
If one person can suddenly do 90% of the work of 100, then all 100 are going to take a massive cut in pay or hours, or 90% of them are going to be looking for another job.
Some work requires direct human level control. Other work just requires a human in the loop. We've already exploited most of the things that can be automated without human level reasoning, and LLMs have made inroads on a whole bunch of things that do require reasoning.
Augmentation - any significant force multiplier applied to individuals - will result in individuals performing more work or producing more output while the overall workforce is reduced in size. Corporations exist to maximize profit, not to provide meaning and worth to human existence.
AI is taking us to a place where human labor is detrimental to value. Hourly wages won't be sensible in the face of software that can do any cognitive work a human can, for orders of magnitude less cost and overhead, with no feelings or rights to account for. Current economic models won't make sense at all without scarcity of labor, intellectual and otherwise.
No profession is safe, and things will only accelerate from here. We should probably start thinking about what a social contract means in a post-scarcity world. What does money mean? How should resources be fairly allocated if working for money is actually counterproductive even if companies were willing to hire you? What does the market look like if it's irresponsible to allow fallible human control over a task which can be performed to a higher level of quality and consistency for orders of magnitude less cost?
It won't happen all at once. It might take a few years, or it might just pop up and happen this summer, or it could take decades, but AI replacing human jobs is a zero sum game. Once machines can more efficiently and effectively perform any cognitive task that any human can achieve, it's no longer strictly economical to pay humans for those tasks. We'll either have to do pretend-work so we can justify paying humans for work that's less cost effective than paying a machine, or we'll need some sort of Universal Basic Income. I'd love to see alternative ideas, but there don't seem to be any.
We're in a very interesting period of human history.
- octopusRex 3y agoI'm tired of people saying "we'll just create NEW jobs." We will not create ENOUGH new jobs. They think this is like going from loss of blacksmith jobs when fewer horseshoes were needed to jobs gained in huge Ford motor factories. If we don't protect our resources and enable basic income, we will find ourselves banging on the gates of robo guarded walls begging for food.