4 ms·

Sometimes criminality drops but at a too high price. Some cities in Latin America are "safe" from a statistical point of view but nobody dares go out at night,

by lp4vn 3y ago

Sometimes criminality drops but at a too high price. Some cities in Latin America are "safe" from a statistical point of view but nobody dares go out at night, or even during the day, in some neighbourhoods because it's too dangerous.

jer0me 3y ago
Too dangerous why?
resolutebat 3y ago
Can you give an example?
- lp4vn 3y ago
  Some areas of the city get historically low crime rates because they are essentially avoided at all costs, not because the place is safe. People "locked up" inside their own homes is not what I would call public security, even though the data will show that the numbers improved.
  - resolutebat 3y ago
    I get the argument, I'm asking for an example of a city that's improving on a paper but in reality getting more dangerous. Subtext: I'm a little skeptical one exists, unless you're looking at a place like Venezuela where stats have been entirely fictional for years.
UtopiaPunk 3y ago
Can you elaborate? I don't think I understand what it would mean to be "safe" statistically, but it's too dangerous to go outside. - Are you implying that the statistic data on crime is incorrect and/or falsified? - Are you including dangers besides criminality (like motor vehicle collisions or stormy weather)? - Are you implying the police make the area unsafe (the police being, practically if not literally, the opposite of "crime statistics")?
- verdverm 3y ago
  Unreported crimes
- lp4vn 3y ago
  I mean that the statistics sometimes don't tell the whole story. The city might be "safe", statistically speaking, but nobody gets out of home because everybody is afraid and tries to avoid public spaces as much as possible. So you have a whole generation being raised inside apartments and closed spaces basically, this was the high price I was talking about.
  - FooBarBizBazz 3y ago
    I.e., "the number of muggings is low only because nobody goes outside where they would get mugged. Offense isn't low; defense is just high."
- bmmayer1 3y ago
  I assumed OP was talking about seeing crimes as a percentage of crime opportunities, whereas overall crime counts on a per capita basis might mask that people spend less time outdoors because of the risk of crime.
- happytiger 3y ago
  Police only get data that’s reported. Most places don’t call the cops the moment something drops. There’s a reason so many tops of house walls in Latin America are covered in shards of broken glass. Official statistics on crime have long been manipulated as well. Remember this rule: if it’s positive, politicians try to maximize its importance with lavish news conferences and self-congratulatory declarations. But! If the data is negative, they will be released quietly, often late on a Friday afternoon, to minimize media coverage. You can actually map the release time of crime data in some places to show whether it’s positive or negative news. There is also a profound difference in transparency levels and therefore data. Check out this report to see how much it varies. https://policetransparency.vera.org/PTI-factsheet.pdf https://policetransparency.vera.org/PTI-factsheet.pdf In California, crime is up in the latest reports. Homicides included. https://data-openjustice.doj.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2023-06/Crime%20In%20CA%202022f.pdf https://data-openjustice.doj.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2023... So, it’s cool that “crime is down” but honestly the article that NPR published is pretty awful journalism and really doesn’t present the truth, which is more complicated. Most of the time they are reporting on the FBI’s uniform crime reporting index: https://www.fbi.gov/how-we-can-help-you/more-fbi-services-and-information/ucr https://www.fbi.gov/how-we-can-help-you/more-fbi-services-an... This data has been under huge scrutiny and criticism for its inaccuracy: The FBI Uniform Crime Report's (UCR's) 'murder and nonnegligent manslaughter' data are so seriously flawed that the only figure they can provide criminologists is the number of deaths investigated by police as potentially criminal homicides, and the weapons use data reported by the UCR and the National Crime Survey (victimization data) are unreliable as well. Source: https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/flaws-fbi-uniform-crime-reports-regarding-homicide-and-weapons-use https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/flaws-fb... The “journalists” at NPR annd other news organizations even bother to mention any of this when they write their articles. The quality of their journalism should be questioned and people should be very aware of the unreliability of the statistical data, especially violent crimes like homicides.

by lp4vn 3y ago

jer0me 3y ago

Too dangerous why?

resolutebat 3y ago

Can you give an example?

lp4vn 3y ago
Some areas of the city get historically low crime rates because they are essentially avoided at all costs, not because the place is safe. People "locked up" inside their own homes is not what I would call public security, even though the data will show that the numbers improved.
- resolutebat 3y ago
  I get the argument, I'm asking for an example of a city that's improving on a paper but in reality getting more dangerous. Subtext: I'm a little skeptical one exists, unless you're looking at a place like Venezuela where stats have been entirely fictional for years.

UtopiaPunk 3y ago

Can you elaborate? I don't think I understand what it would mean to be "safe" statistically, but it's too dangerous to go outside. - Are you implying that the statistic data on crime is incorrect and/or falsified? - Are you including dangers besides criminality (like motor vehicle collisions or stormy weather)? - Are you implying the police make the area unsafe (the police being, practically if not literally, the opposite of "crime statistics")?

verdverm 3y ago
Unreported crimes
lp4vn 3y ago
I mean that the statistics sometimes don't tell the whole story. The city might be "safe", statistically speaking, but nobody gets out of home because everybody is afraid and tries to avoid public spaces as much as possible. So you have a whole generation being raised inside apartments and closed spaces basically, this was the high price I was talking about.
- FooBarBizBazz 3y ago
  I.e., "the number of muggings is low only because nobody goes outside where they would get mugged. Offense isn't low; defense is just high."
bmmayer1 3y ago
I assumed OP was talking about seeing crimes as a percentage of crime opportunities, whereas overall crime counts on a per capita basis might mask that people spend less time outdoors because of the risk of crime.
happytiger 3y ago
Police only get data that’s reported. Most places don’t call the cops the moment something drops. There’s a reason so many tops of house walls in Latin America are covered in shards of broken glass. Official statistics on crime have long been manipulated as well. Remember this rule: if it’s positive, politicians try to maximize its importance with lavish news conferences and self-congratulatory declarations. But! If the data is negative, they will be released quietly, often late on a Friday afternoon, to minimize media coverage. You can actually map the release time of crime data in some places to show whether it’s positive or negative news. There is also a profound difference in transparency levels and therefore data. Check out this report to see how much it varies. https://policetransparency.vera.org/PTI-factsheet.pdf https://policetransparency.vera.org/PTI-factsheet.pdf In California, crime is up in the latest reports. Homicides included. https://data-openjustice.doj.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2023-06/Crime%20In%20CA%202022f.pdf https://data-openjustice.doj.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2023... So, it’s cool that “crime is down” but honestly the article that NPR published is pretty awful journalism and really doesn’t present the truth, which is more complicated. Most of the time they are reporting on the FBI’s uniform crime reporting index: https://www.fbi.gov/how-we-can-help-you/more-fbi-services-and-information/ucr https://www.fbi.gov/how-we-can-help-you/more-fbi-services-an... This data has been under huge scrutiny and criticism for its inaccuracy: The FBI Uniform Crime Report's (UCR's) 'murder and nonnegligent manslaughter' data are so seriously flawed that the only figure they can provide criminologists is the number of deaths investigated by police as potentially criminal homicides, and the weapons use data reported by the UCR and the National Crime Survey (victimization data) are unreliable as well. Source: https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/flaws-fbi-uniform-crime-reports-regarding-homicide-and-weapons-use https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/flaws-fb... The “journalists” at NPR annd other news organizations even bother to mention any of this when they write their articles. The quality of their journalism should be questioned and people should be very aware of the unreliability of the statistical data, especially violent crimes like homicides.