2 ms·

your comment doesn't contradict to what I said from math point of view. 35yo still could catch low rate mortgages, and lower prices homes 10 years ago. Today'

your comment doesn't contradict to what I said from math point of view. 35yo still could catch low rate mortgages, and lower prices homes 10 years ago. Today's 20yo (new generation) is in very larger scrunity. Also, you didn't support your numbers about age distribution with any kind of references.

lolinder 3y ago
Ah, I have a hard time remembering that the millennials have taken the boomers' place as the oppressive older generation. Gen Z doesn't have a monopoly on spending their 20s in a scary financial situation. Let's see what the numbers look like in 10 years—if prior trends (the data I linked to above) are anything to go by, I expect them to be roughly the same as they always have been at about 66%+/-3%.
- riku_iki 3y ago
  > I expect them to be roughly the same as they always have been at about 66%+/-3%. No, graphs like wealth inequality, income to housing cost ratio, national debt will tell you that numbers will be very different.
  - lolinder 3y ago
    I found the data you were looking for about homeownership by age over time: In 1994, ~37% of <35yos owned a home. In 2004, ~42% of <35yos owned a home. In 2014, ~36% of <35yos owned a home. In Q4 2023, ~39% of <35yos owned a home. https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtab19.xlsx https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtab19.xlsx
    - riku_iki 3y ago
      I explained already why 35yo is a bad cut. You better check what the average mortgage payment for new house buyer today and 5 years ago. Diff can be 2-3 times. Also, actual homeownership is not a perfect proxy for wealth measurement, since it could be that today's gen z are buying 1br condos instead of single family houses like boomers.
      - lolinder 3y ago
        > I explained already why 35yo is a bad cut. These numbers are all adults under 35, so your argument about generation gaps doesn't apply here. 20-something year olds are included in each decade's numbers, and the rate hasn't substantially changed in the measured decades. > You better check what the average mortgage payment for new house buyer today and 5 years ago. Diff can be 2-3 times. That's a separate question from whether people are priced out. If the average mortgage payment is much higher but 39% of people under 35 can still afford a mortgage, then no more people are priced out than were in previous generations. > Also, actual homeownership is not a perfect proxy for wealth measurement, since it could be that today's gen z are buying 1br condos instead of single family houses like boomers. True, but I'm not talking about wealth, I'm specifically addressing the question of whether the average American cannot afford to buy a home.
        riku_iki 3y ago
        > If the average mortgage payment is much higher but 39% of people under 35 can still afford a mortgage they afford rate they secured when it was much lower and in many cases houses were cheaper. Today's 35 first house buyer salary man coming on housing market is also in very miserable situation.
      - AlchemistCamp 3y ago
        The average home square footage has increased considerably over the past 50 years, while the average number of people in a household has decreased.
        riku_iki 3y ago
        past 50 years and past 10 years (home prices and interest rates raised twice each) are very different stories.
        AlchemistCamp 3y ago
        You mentioned boomers. They faced higher interest rates, higher unemployment and higher inflation than people do now. Sure, it may not be effortless coming of working age now, but it would take a staggering level of ignorance and/or entitlement to argue that it’s harder than it was in the 70s when boomers were coming up.

lolinder 3y ago

Ah, I have a hard time remembering that the millennials have taken the boomers' place as the oppressive older generation. Gen Z doesn't have a monopoly on spending their 20s in a scary financial situation. Let's see what the numbers look like in 10 years—if prior trends (the data I linked to above) are anything to go by, I expect them to be roughly the same as they always have been at about 66%+/-3%.

riku_iki 3y ago
> I expect them to be roughly the same as they always have been at about 66%+/-3%. No, graphs like wealth inequality, income to housing cost ratio, national debt will tell you that numbers will be very different.
- lolinder 3y ago
  I found the data you were looking for about homeownership by age over time: In 1994, ~37% of <35yos owned a home. In 2004, ~42% of <35yos owned a home. In 2014, ~36% of <35yos owned a home. In Q4 2023, ~39% of <35yos owned a home. https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtab19.xlsx https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtab19.xlsx
  - riku_iki 3y ago
    I explained already why 35yo is a bad cut. You better check what the average mortgage payment for new house buyer today and 5 years ago. Diff can be 2-3 times. Also, actual homeownership is not a perfect proxy for wealth measurement, since it could be that today's gen z are buying 1br condos instead of single family houses like boomers.
    - lolinder 3y ago
      > I explained already why 35yo is a bad cut. These numbers are all adults under 35, so your argument about generation gaps doesn't apply here. 20-something year olds are included in each decade's numbers, and the rate hasn't substantially changed in the measured decades. > You better check what the average mortgage payment for new house buyer today and 5 years ago. Diff can be 2-3 times. That's a separate question from whether people are priced out. If the average mortgage payment is much higher but 39% of people under 35 can still afford a mortgage, then no more people are priced out than were in previous generations. > Also, actual homeownership is not a perfect proxy for wealth measurement, since it could be that today's gen z are buying 1br condos instead of single family houses like boomers. True, but I'm not talking about wealth, I'm specifically addressing the question of whether the average American cannot afford to buy a home.
      - riku_iki 3y ago
        > If the average mortgage payment is much higher but 39% of people under 35 can still afford a mortgage they afford rate they secured when it was much lower and in many cases houses were cheaper. Today's 35 first house buyer salary man coming on housing market is also in very miserable situation.
    - AlchemistCamp 3y ago
      The average home square footage has increased considerably over the past 50 years, while the average number of people in a household has decreased.
      - riku_iki 3y ago
        past 50 years and past 10 years (home prices and interest rates raised twice each) are very different stories.
        AlchemistCamp 3y ago
        You mentioned boomers. They faced higher interest rates, higher unemployment and higher inflation than people do now. Sure, it may not be effortless coming of working age now, but it would take a staggering level of ignorance and/or entitlement to argue that it’s harder than it was in the 70s when boomers were coming up.