5 ms·

Here's the abstract of the actual paper: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38277296 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38277296 > "Conclusions: The modern 'epidemi

Here's the abstract of the actual paper: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38277296 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38277296 > "Conclusions: The modern 'epidemic level' of advanced dementias was not described among ancient Greco-Roman elderly. The possible emergence of advanced ADRD in the Roman era may be associated with environmental factors of air pollution and increased exposure to lead. Further historical analysis may formulate critical hypotheses about the modernity of high ADRD prevalence." Air pollution has near-zero explanatory power, though. See: "Global, regional, and national burden of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, 1990–2019" at: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fnagi.2022.937486/full https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fnagi.2022.9374... "High-income North America" has the highest age-standardized incidence rate, whereas smog-shrouded South Asia has the lowest. East Asia, infamous for industrial and urban air pollution, is also fairly low on the list. From this data, there's apparently zero correlation between pollution and incidence rate.

matteoraso 3y ago
>> "Conclusions: The modern 'epidemic level' of advanced dementias was not described among ancient Greco-Roman elderly. The possible emergence of advanced ADRD in the Roman era may be associated with environmental factors of air pollution and increased exposure to lead. Further historical analysis may formulate critical hypotheses about the modernity of high ADRD prevalence." It's not as if they were doing detailed demographic studies back then, though. There's just certain things that can't be known, and this is one of them.
- ComputerGuru 3y ago
  You don't need demographic studies. These were people's parents, grandparents. Part of their lived life. Enough random diaries are sufficient.
madaxe_again 3y ago
Indeed - it could equally be explained by dementia/Alzheimer’s being a contagious disease, such as a prion or similar protein malformation, which quite a bit of current research seems to suggest, and it simply had not become endemic at that point.
- londons_explore 3y ago
  It disappoints me that something which severely impacts the lives of perhaps one third of humans isn't better understood. If it were a prison disease, surely with ~2 billion data points of those with/without dementia, we would have isolated exactly what molecule causes it and how it gets transmitted from person to person.
  - salawat 3y ago
    Cures are not good business. Treatments are. Treatments of minimal or dubious efficacy even moreso. Track the incentives.
- v4dok 3y ago
  Do you have any research you can point for that, its quite interesting.
Anotheroneagain 3y ago
That looks like a negative correlation. Anyway, the cause seems to be nutritional. People used to consume vastly more copper than we do today. The modern recommended intakes were hastily made up for the need in the WW2, and never seriously revised.
Retric 3y ago
Current air pollution levels isn’t indicative of lifetime or especially childhood exposure. Leaded gas for example has seen a huge decline, but was still a thing when current 70+ year olds where young. Similarly, current developing economies where very different 50 years ago.
- beAbU 3y ago
  Leaded gas was a thing when current 30 year olds were young.
  - smcin 3y ago
    Surely studies could get a good control group of people who grew up in rural Montana, or the Andes. Assume we can find groups with near-zero lifetime exposure to atmospheric (and/or waterborne) lead. What's their background rate of Alzheimer's?
  - prepend 3y ago
    Not really [0], leaded gas was completely banned in the US in 1996 but really hadn’t been used since the early 80s and had start the phase out in 1996. So you’d probably need to look at people in their 50s who really had an impact of lead from auto fuel. [0] https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1133434_why-did-the-world-use-leaded-gas-and-why-did-it-take-so-long-to-phase-out https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1133434_why-did-the-wor...
    - argiopetech 3y ago
      Where "completely" in this case implies "for road-going vehicles". General aviation (largely small, piston-engine planes) still overwhelmingly run on 100 octane low-lead (100LL).
      - matthewdgreen 3y ago
        This is a very big deal if you spend time around small aircraft (hangar floors in particular sometimes have terrifyingly high lead levels.) But if you’re not spending time close to aircraft, the amount of lead you’ll be exposed to is negligible - at least compared to auto emissions, which were ubiquitous and extremely concentrated in residential neighborhoods. Unfortunately the lead remains in the soil, so there’s still exposure to it today.
Systemling0815 3y ago
[flagged]
- A_D_E_P_T 3y ago
  Nullius in verba. You'd be well advised to take a skeptical view of every scientific paper -- especially those promoted by University PR departments. Besides, "it's air pollution's fault" was a throwaway statement by those UCLA gerontologists. It wasn't the focus of their study; it was simply an unsupported notion of what might explain the supposedly higher rate of Alzheimer's disease in Rome as opposed to Ancient Greece. (I write supposedly because they don't really have enough for a statistically valid conclusion. What they have is: "In the writings that have survived, the Greeks mentioned something like Alzheimer's once. The Romans mentioned it four times. Now what could account for this presumptive discrepancy? We'll assume that it could have been lead or dirtier air.")
- readthenotes1 3y ago
  Scientific? It's just career manure until it's been replicated
- malux85 3y ago
  It has been MANY, MANY years since the alignment of academic institutions was solely meritorious, perverse incentives distort truth regardless of infomation source.
Log_out_ 3y ago
Asia has comparatively fewer cars and break pad dust aka asbestos.

matteoraso 3y ago

>> "Conclusions: The modern 'epidemic level' of advanced dementias was not described among ancient Greco-Roman elderly. The possible emergence of advanced ADRD in the Roman era may be associated with environmental factors of air pollution and increased exposure to lead. Further historical analysis may formulate critical hypotheses about the modernity of high ADRD prevalence." It's not as if they were doing detailed demographic studies back then, though. There's just certain things that can't be known, and this is one of them.

ComputerGuru 3y ago
You don't need demographic studies. These were people's parents, grandparents. Part of their lived life. Enough random diaries are sufficient.

madaxe_again 3y ago

Indeed - it could equally be explained by dementia/Alzheimer’s being a contagious disease, such as a prion or similar protein malformation, which quite a bit of current research seems to suggest, and it simply had not become endemic at that point.

londons_explore 3y ago
It disappoints me that something which severely impacts the lives of perhaps one third of humans isn't better understood. If it were a prison disease, surely with ~2 billion data points of those with/without dementia, we would have isolated exactly what molecule causes it and how it gets transmitted from person to person.
- salawat 3y ago
  Cures are not good business. Treatments are. Treatments of minimal or dubious efficacy even moreso. Track the incentives.
v4dok 3y ago
Do you have any research you can point for that, its quite interesting.

Anotheroneagain 3y ago

That looks like a negative correlation. Anyway, the cause seems to be nutritional. People used to consume vastly more copper than we do today. The modern recommended intakes were hastily made up for the need in the WW2, and never seriously revised.

Retric 3y ago

Current air pollution levels isn’t indicative of lifetime or especially childhood exposure. Leaded gas for example has seen a huge decline, but was still a thing when current 70+ year olds where young. Similarly, current developing economies where very different 50 years ago.

beAbU 3y ago
Leaded gas was a thing when current 30 year olds were young.
- smcin 3y ago
  Surely studies could get a good control group of people who grew up in rural Montana, or the Andes. Assume we can find groups with near-zero lifetime exposure to atmospheric (and/or waterborne) lead. What's their background rate of Alzheimer's?
- prepend 3y ago
  Not really [0], leaded gas was completely banned in the US in 1996 but really hadn’t been used since the early 80s and had start the phase out in 1996. So you’d probably need to look at people in their 50s who really had an impact of lead from auto fuel. [0] https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1133434_why-did-the-world-use-leaded-gas-and-why-did-it-take-so-long-to-phase-out https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1133434_why-did-the-wor...
  - argiopetech 3y ago
    Where "completely" in this case implies "for road-going vehicles". General aviation (largely small, piston-engine planes) still overwhelmingly run on 100 octane low-lead (100LL).
    - matthewdgreen 3y ago
      This is a very big deal if you spend time around small aircraft (hangar floors in particular sometimes have terrifyingly high lead levels.) But if you’re not spending time close to aircraft, the amount of lead you’ll be exposed to is negligible - at least compared to auto emissions, which were ubiquitous and extremely concentrated in residential neighborhoods. Unfortunately the lead remains in the soil, so there’s still exposure to it today.

Systemling0815 3y ago

[flagged]

A_D_E_P_T 3y ago
Nullius in verba. You'd be well advised to take a skeptical view of every scientific paper -- especially those promoted by University PR departments. Besides, "it's air pollution's fault" was a throwaway statement by those UCLA gerontologists. It wasn't the focus of their study; it was simply an unsupported notion of what might explain the supposedly higher rate of Alzheimer's disease in Rome as opposed to Ancient Greece. (I write supposedly because they don't really have enough for a statistically valid conclusion. What they have is: "In the writings that have survived, the Greeks mentioned something like Alzheimer's once. The Romans mentioned it four times. Now what could account for this presumptive discrepancy? We'll assume that it could have been lead or dirtier air.")
readthenotes1 3y ago
Scientific? It's just career manure until it's been replicated
malux85 3y ago
It has been MANY, MANY years since the alignment of academic institutions was solely meritorious, perverse incentives distort truth regardless of infomation source.

Log_out_ 3y ago

Asia has comparatively fewer cars and break pad dust aka asbestos.