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tl;dr: Money. People with moderate incomes can barely afford to house and feed themselves, even with a partner. Introduce a dependent child into the mix and th

tl;dr: Money. People with moderate incomes can barely afford to house and feed themselves, even with a partner. Introduce a dependent child into the mix and the subsequent ~30% increase in fixed expenses and it is easy to see why fewer and fewer people are having children. Personally I wouldn’t want children because of the increasingly bleak outlook for humanity. Climate change is looking increasingly dire, and fascism is seeing a frightening upswing.

pavlov 3y ago
It’s not that simple. Birth rates are also down in European countries where having a child is not a significant financial burden. Here’s an interesting recent interview on the topic with a leading Finnish demographer: (Financial Times, paywall) https://www.ft.com/content/500c0fb7-a04a-4f87-9b93-bf65045b9401 https://www.ft.com/content/500c0fb7-a04a-4f87-9b93-bf65045b9... Twenty years ago, Finland appeared to have it all. The birth rate was rising and the proportion of women in the labour force was high. Policymakers from around the world, including the UK and east Asia, came to learn about the Nordic model behind it: world class maternity care; generous parental leave; a right to pre-school childcare. But maybe they got it wrong. Despite all the support offered to parents, Finland’s fertility rate has fallen nearly a third since 2010. It is now below the UK’s, where the social safety net is more limited, and only slightly above Italy’s, where traditional gender roles persevere. “The strange thing with fertility is nobody really knows what’s going on. The policy responses are untried because it’s a new situation. It’s not primarily driven by economics or family policies. It’s something cultural, psychological, biological, cognitive.” At the Family Federation, Rotkirch oversees a unique series of surveys, which ask young people not just how many children they are planning to have, but how many they would ideally like to have. Her findings suggest that children do not fit into many millennials’ life plans. Once it was a sacrifice not to have children; now starting a family means sacrificing independence. “In most societies, having children was a cornerstone of adulthood. Now it’s something you have if you already have everything else. It becomes the capstone.”
- Longhanks 3y ago
  > European countries where having a child is not a significant financial burden I'm sorry, but which part of Europe would that be? People cannot afford a house and rents are going up like crazy, energy is expensive, taxes are high..?
  - pavlov 3y ago
    Europe certainly isn’t uniform. The story I linked is about Finland. Here rents are stagnant or down. Energy prices are much more reasonable and predictable after a 1,600 MW nuclear plant came online last year. The new government has even made tax cuts. But the overall trend of shrinking fertility is unmistakable over a substantially longer period than just the past few years. There isn’t a direct link to the economy, as the Finnish demographic researcher explains in the interview I linked.
- ane 3y ago
  I would think that parenthood has now become a choice that many young people no longer want
- shakow 3y ago
  > European countries where having a child is not a significant financial burden. Beg your pardon? Have you seen the price of real estate/child care/energy/... in Europe?
  - pavlov 3y ago
    I have two children. I live in Finland and previously we lived in New York. The cost of having and raising a child in Finland is minimal compared to the U.S.
    - shakow 3y ago
      1. You're comparing with one of the most expensive city in the US; how would it be in e.g. Rapid City or Cincinnati? 2. That's cool for Finland, but Finland is not necessarily representative of Europe as a whole; 3. And even though, ‶better than the US for a someone who's socially high enough to be able to work in NY″ is probably not representative of the average Finn, and still does not make it ‶great″.
bsdpufferfish 3y ago
I don’t buy this at all. The poorest people have the most kids. Yes if you want an upper middle class kid with daycare, a math tutor and piano lessons, it’s going to be expensive. But the actual cost of having a child is food off your plate, second hand clothes, and a stay at home parent. The problem is that is probably not the lifestyle upper middle class people want.
- jquery 3y ago
  Why should the burden of the next generation fall entirely on new parents? It's not like they're the only beneficiaries of our country having another generation. Seems like they're just being rationally "selfish" in response to the rest of the nation being equally, if not more selfish.
- awskinda 3y ago
  [dead]
- SXX 3y ago
  Were those families of 6 living for 30k happy families? Something tells me not.
  - bsdpufferfish 3y ago
    Happiest families I know. 2 of their sons now have phds from Ivy League.
    - silverquiet 3y ago
      That's wonderful. The thing is that I know quite a few people who raised plenty of children on low incomes and if those kids even finished community college, they were exceptional. I guess our experience is quite different.
      - bsdpufferfish 3y ago
        Time and care from capable parents are more effective than money. However many people who are poor do not have those skill. Upper middle class just prefer to use money instead of time. The upper class does not outsource parenting lightly.

pavlov 3y ago

It’s not that simple. Birth rates are also down in European countries where having a child is not a significant financial burden. Here’s an interesting recent interview on the topic with a leading Finnish demographer: (Financial Times, paywall) https://www.ft.com/content/500c0fb7-a04a-4f87-9b93-bf65045b9401 https://www.ft.com/content/500c0fb7-a04a-4f87-9b93-bf65045b9... Twenty years ago, Finland appeared to have it all. The birth rate was rising and the proportion of women in the labour force was high. Policymakers from around the world, including the UK and east Asia, came to learn about the Nordic model behind it: world class maternity care; generous parental leave; a right to pre-school childcare. But maybe they got it wrong. Despite all the support offered to parents, Finland’s fertility rate has fallen nearly a third since 2010. It is now below the UK’s, where the social safety net is more limited, and only slightly above Italy’s, where traditional gender roles persevere. “The strange thing with fertility is nobody really knows what’s going on. The policy responses are untried because it’s a new situation. It’s not primarily driven by economics or family policies. It’s something cultural, psychological, biological, cognitive.” At the Family Federation, Rotkirch oversees a unique series of surveys, which ask young people not just how many children they are planning to have, but how many they would ideally like to have. Her findings suggest that children do not fit into many millennials’ life plans. Once it was a sacrifice not to have children; now starting a family means sacrificing independence. “In most societies, having children was a cornerstone of adulthood. Now it’s something you have if you already have everything else. It becomes the capstone.”

Longhanks 3y ago
> European countries where having a child is not a significant financial burden I'm sorry, but which part of Europe would that be? People cannot afford a house and rents are going up like crazy, energy is expensive, taxes are high..?
- pavlov 3y ago
  Europe certainly isn’t uniform. The story I linked is about Finland. Here rents are stagnant or down. Energy prices are much more reasonable and predictable after a 1,600 MW nuclear plant came online last year. The new government has even made tax cuts. But the overall trend of shrinking fertility is unmistakable over a substantially longer period than just the past few years. There isn’t a direct link to the economy, as the Finnish demographic researcher explains in the interview I linked.
ane 3y ago
I would think that parenthood has now become a choice that many young people no longer want
shakow 3y ago
> European countries where having a child is not a significant financial burden. Beg your pardon? Have you seen the price of real estate/child care/energy/... in Europe?
- pavlov 3y ago
  I have two children. I live in Finland and previously we lived in New York. The cost of having and raising a child in Finland is minimal compared to the U.S.
  - shakow 3y ago
    1. You're comparing with one of the most expensive city in the US; how would it be in e.g. Rapid City or Cincinnati? 2. That's cool for Finland, but Finland is not necessarily representative of Europe as a whole; 3. And even though, ‶better than the US for a someone who's socially high enough to be able to work in NY″ is probably not representative of the average Finn, and still does not make it ‶great″.

bsdpufferfish 3y ago

I don’t buy this at all. The poorest people have the most kids. Yes if you want an upper middle class kid with daycare, a math tutor and piano lessons, it’s going to be expensive. But the actual cost of having a child is food off your plate, second hand clothes, and a stay at home parent. The problem is that is probably not the lifestyle upper middle class people want.

jquery 3y ago
Why should the burden of the next generation fall entirely on new parents? It's not like they're the only beneficiaries of our country having another generation. Seems like they're just being rationally "selfish" in response to the rest of the nation being equally, if not more selfish.
awskinda 3y ago
[dead]
SXX 3y ago
Were those families of 6 living for 30k happy families? Something tells me not.
- bsdpufferfish 3y ago
  Happiest families I know. 2 of their sons now have phds from Ivy League.
  - silverquiet 3y ago
    That's wonderful. The thing is that I know quite a few people who raised plenty of children on low incomes and if those kids even finished community college, they were exceptional. I guess our experience is quite different.
    - bsdpufferfish 3y ago
      Time and care from capable parents are more effective than money. However many people who are poor do not have those skill. Upper middle class just prefer to use money instead of time. The upper class does not outsource parenting lightly.