3 ms·

Building rails is harder than using the roads that already exist. It's always going to be a trade-off

al_borland 3y ago
But is building rails harder than developing a self driving car/bus? We had rails 200 year ago; it’s a solved problem that mostly requires political will and capital allocation to execute. Self driving cars have been in development of some kind for at least 40 years[1] and it’s still a struggle technically, and will still require some political will going forward as we try to solve all the legal problem they bring up, and the development has also been very capital intensive[2]. If we have to spend the money and deal with the politics anyway, why not put that effort toward something we know works, we can do today, will reduce traffic on roads, and has a better safety record than automobiles. Augmenting a rail system with some kind of taxi system is fine, but it seems odd to put all the eggs in the autonomous car basket. We were promised cars would be driving themselves across the country 6 years ago, and it’s still just promises[3]. How long are we willing to wait for something that’s actually viable for the masses? And how much are we going to pay per ride? Right now it looks like it will be more expensive than hopping on a train. People often say Elon pitched the HyperLoop and Boring company ideas to try and kill rail plans, since he owns a car company. I have to wonder if these someday promises of self-driving are a similar tactic. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_self-driving_cars https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_self-driving_cars [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-10-06/even-after-100-billion-self-driving-cars-are-going-nowhere https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-10-06/even-afte... [3] https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/1474/elon-musk-says-tesla-will-attempt-autonomous-la-to-ny-drive-soon https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/1474/elon-musk-says-tesla-...
- konschubert 3y ago
  Let’s do both.

But is building rails harder than developing a self driving car/bus? We had rails 200 year ago; it’s a solved problem that mostly requires political will and capital allocation to execute. Self driving cars have been in development of some kind for at least 40 years[1] and it’s still a struggle technically, and will still require some political will going forward as we try to solve all the legal problem they bring up, and the development has also been very capital intensive[2]. If we have to spend the money and deal with the politics anyway, why not put that effort toward something we know works, we can do today, will reduce traffic on roads, and has a better safety record than automobiles. Augmenting a rail system with some kind of taxi system is fine, but it seems odd to put all the eggs in the autonomous car basket. We were promised cars would be driving themselves across the country 6 years ago, and it’s still just promises[3]. How long are we willing to wait for something that’s actually viable for the masses? And how much are we going to pay per ride? Right now it looks like it will be more expensive than hopping on a train. People often say Elon pitched the HyperLoop and Boring company ideas to try and kill rail plans, since he owns a car company. I have to wonder if these someday promises of self-driving are a similar tactic. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_self-driving_cars https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_self-driving_cars [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-10-06/even-after-100-billion-self-driving-cars-are-going-nowhere https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-10-06/even-afte... [3] https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/1474/elon-musk-says-tesla-will-attempt-autonomous-la-to-ny-drive-soon https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/1474/elon-musk-says-tesla-...

konschubert 3y ago
Let’s do both.