4 ms·

Demographics is the big one. Obviously fewer workers and more retirees, but also a gerontocracy where many parties primarily want to go back to some idealised v

by tormeh 3y ago

Demographics is the big one. Obviously fewer workers and more retirees, but also a gerontocracy where many parties primarily want to go back to some idealised version of the past. The CDU is basically the party of 1960s car adverts. The Greens are hippies, recent management notwithstanding. The SPD has an identity crisis, but before that was classic cold-war social democrats. The Left is fortunately going extinct, but was classic Warsaw Pact. There’s a bit of a trend here. The general population is generally looking backwards, and decision-makers and bureaucrats skew even older than the general population.

skippyboxedhero 3y ago
Demographics aren't the issue. Japan has had relatively bad aging, per capita growth for working-age population since 1990 is equal to the US. Indeed, the issue of demographics has been a massive problem because politicians repeat the mantra: population cannot age, we must mass import. Okay...but most high productivity people aren't going to Germany (and to be clear, this has been the case in France, the UK, many other places). So they just get more minimum-wage workers who drag down productivity/incomes. I agree with your point about the parties but Japan is a very backwards-looking society, they have had none of these issues. Their economic policy hasn't been perfect but if you compare to Western Europe: they haven't made a lot of those errors either so naturally ended up in a better place. With Germany, there is an issue with pension sustainability without population growth...but the problem is: pension sustainability not a lack of population growth (even if it wasn't, as I explain above, it is quite literally impossible today to solve this issue with immigration...the productive people aren't leaving the US, it isn't happening). You have seen Western Europe go even harder on population growth and (if anything) economic growth has just accelerated lower. Economic growth is quite simple: make things that people want, train people to make those things, do it all very cheaply (look at Eastern Europe, higher standard of living, lower incomes so lower wages and more business investment, sensible investment in government services...these economies weren't even on the map when Germany was going through the 2000s slump).
- tormeh 3y ago
  Is Japan actually in a better place? GDP per capita is worse, work hours are longer, debt is much higher, birth rates are lower. Citation needed.
  - skippyboxedhero 3y ago
    You have asked for a citation whilst listing a bunch of things that are quantifiable but which may or may not matter depending on your PoV...I notice you didn't mention crime...why is that it? Lack of citations? Asking for citations does not mean that the things you cite are relevant or useful. GDP per capita growth since 1990 is equal to the US. Yes, this is good. Work hours are longer...than what? They are shorter than the US and most of Europe by OECD data...where are your citations? Debt is higher...than what? Personal rates of debt are lower, and they have a huge net foreign asset position...did you cite something without understanding what it meant? Birth rates are lower...yes, why is this bad? It hasn't impacted GDP per capita...so why is it bad? Again, is this something you are "citing" without understanding?
    - ffgjgf1 3y ago
      > GDP per capita growth since 1990 is equal to the US Not it’s not. That’s just an absurd claim. Japan had even GDP per capita with the US in 1990, briefly overtook it ~1995. Now US has more than twice as high GDP per capita (76k vs 34k). The Japanese economy has been stagnant since the mid 90s… In PPP it’s almost as bad (45k vs 76k). Now look at Japan and Germany, they were about even until 2007 now Germany is massively ahead. > citing" without understanding? Coming from someone who didn’t even bother looking up how Japan’s GDP per capita changed (or rather stayed stagnant) over the last 20+ years?

by tormeh 3y ago

skippyboxedhero 3y ago

Demographics aren't the issue. Japan has had relatively bad aging, per capita growth for working-age population since 1990 is equal to the US. Indeed, the issue of demographics has been a massive problem because politicians repeat the mantra: population cannot age, we must mass import. Okay...but most high productivity people aren't going to Germany (and to be clear, this has been the case in France, the UK, many other places). So they just get more minimum-wage workers who drag down productivity/incomes. I agree with your point about the parties but Japan is a very backwards-looking society, they have had none of these issues. Their economic policy hasn't been perfect but if you compare to Western Europe: they haven't made a lot of those errors either so naturally ended up in a better place. With Germany, there is an issue with pension sustainability without population growth...but the problem is: pension sustainability not a lack of population growth (even if it wasn't, as I explain above, it is quite literally impossible today to solve this issue with immigration...the productive people aren't leaving the US, it isn't happening). You have seen Western Europe go even harder on population growth and (if anything) economic growth has just accelerated lower. Economic growth is quite simple: make things that people want, train people to make those things, do it all very cheaply (look at Eastern Europe, higher standard of living, lower incomes so lower wages and more business investment, sensible investment in government services...these economies weren't even on the map when Germany was going through the 2000s slump).

tormeh 3y ago
Is Japan actually in a better place? GDP per capita is worse, work hours are longer, debt is much higher, birth rates are lower. Citation needed.
- skippyboxedhero 3y ago
  You have asked for a citation whilst listing a bunch of things that are quantifiable but which may or may not matter depending on your PoV...I notice you didn't mention crime...why is that it? Lack of citations? Asking for citations does not mean that the things you cite are relevant or useful. GDP per capita growth since 1990 is equal to the US. Yes, this is good. Work hours are longer...than what? They are shorter than the US and most of Europe by OECD data...where are your citations? Debt is higher...than what? Personal rates of debt are lower, and they have a huge net foreign asset position...did you cite something without understanding what it meant? Birth rates are lower...yes, why is this bad? It hasn't impacted GDP per capita...so why is it bad? Again, is this something you are "citing" without understanding?
  - ffgjgf1 3y ago
    > GDP per capita growth since 1990 is equal to the US Not it’s not. That’s just an absurd claim. Japan had even GDP per capita with the US in 1990, briefly overtook it ~1995. Now US has more than twice as high GDP per capita (76k vs 34k). The Japanese economy has been stagnant since the mid 90s… In PPP it’s almost as bad (45k vs 76k). Now look at Japan and Germany, they were about even until 2007 now Germany is massively ahead. > citing" without understanding? Coming from someone who didn’t even bother looking up how Japan’s GDP per capita changed (or rather stayed stagnant) over the last 20+ years?