Nearly every post that sings the Vision’s praises mentions a kind of unwavering belief in a Moore’s Law of technological progress, which is very magical thinkin

Nearly every post that sings the Vision’s praises mentions a kind of unwavering belief in a Moore’s Law of technological progress, which is very magical thinking that is not truly based on data but merely recency bias. The reality is that the challenges facing a better vision pro are much, much more difficult than the ones for early personal computing and smartphones. Some of these obstacles are outright technical. The Vision Pro is clearly best in class but the next iteration is going to take some significant technological leaps forward, some of which (screen latency) are physically insurmountable. The obstacles are cultural. When an iPhone showed up, there wasn’t much zeitgeist against using a computer or a blackberry too much. But there’s since been a lot of conversation about the nature of these tiny sceeens we keep drawing closer and closer to our eyes. I can see the Vision Pro becoming a tool for professionals, in the same space a dual monitor setup occupies. But AR/VR is such a viscerally compelling experience that think there may be an extensive backlash on all personal devices as a result, particularly as usage relates to young people. There’s just a lot of tough challenges ahead of adopting and I think hand waving these away due to “progress” is a little naive.