4 ms·

tiny errors like this gotta add up into deviations between what we're currently observing in the climate vs what models are predicting, right?

Red_Leaves_Flyy 3y ago
By tiny you mean massive.
- solarpunk 3y ago
  true true.
schiffern 3y ago
I think the point is that it's not really a "tiny" error. Phrasing it as "91% vs 98% efficient" makes it seem like it's only 'off' by a factor of 1.08x, but what really matters for the climate is 9% vs 2% leak rate — a whopping 4.5x! Perhaps surprisingly, this 'simple math' for us isn't obvious to a large fraction of the population. For better comprehension it would be nice if the article had pointed it out specifically. Methane is a great low hanging fruit to tackle first. Its atmospheric half-life is 8-12 years, which means slashing emissions now can 'bend the curve' in decades, not centuries. Upcoming satellites will monitor all emissions globally, with day-by-day and well-by-well granularity.
- caminante 3y ago
  >For better comprehension it would be nice if the article had pointed it out specifically. Don't need to patronize the reader with express restatements. And if someone doesn't understand 91 v 98%, do you really think they'll get 350% increase?
  - schiffern 3y ago
    Inexplicably name-calling clear math communication as "patronizing" doesn't make it any less essential. The numbers are shocking. Based on the modest complexity of that task (I'd say between upper Level 2 and Level 3), perhaps 35-50% of Americans are able to complete the task.[0] >And if someone doesn't understand 91 v 98%, do you really think they'll get 350% increase? Sure, if you explain it. "4.5 times" is a good phrase. Doesn't take up many column inches. It's a much harder leap to go straight from "91% vs 98%" to "that means 350% more," which is what the article is currently expecting. Since we've apparently agreed not to have a working education system, maybe we should at least explain key global environmental threats in mass media in terms the majority of citizens can actually understand. Just a thought. [0] https://www.wyliecomm.com/2021/11/whats-the-latest-u-s-numeracy-rate/ https://www.wyliecomm.com/2021/11/whats-the-latest-u-s-numer...
    - caminante 3y ago
      >Inexplicably... Not true. Did you miss the part of the article that highlights why the seemingly small % difference is a big deal due to methane's global warming potential? [0] [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39323155 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39323155 Now to your article, an ArsTechnica audience likely isn't representative of a numbersense survey for average americans with fuzzy buckets. And I see your article as making my point.
      - schiffern 3y ago
        >Did you miss the part of the article that highlights... Thanks. It's more troubling than I thought. It seems the authors themselves may not understand the math! "The difference between the assumed efficiency of flaring and the efficiency found in Kort and his colleagues’ results is a matter of a few percentage points. However, the researcher said that this seemingly small difference could be a big deal when extrapolated over the whole fossil fuel industry. Further, methane has more than 80 times the impact when it comes to warming the planet—at least during the first 20 years it spends in the air." It isn't a problem because it's a small difference "extrapolated over the whole fossil fuel industry." It isn't a problem because it's a small difference but methane is worse than CO2. It's a problem because it's a huge difference: over a quadrupling in total emissions. Re-reading, the authors never actually realize/acknowledge this. Truly the blind leading the blind! :o
        caminante 3y ago
        > This isn't a problem because it's a small fraction "extrapolated over the whole fossil fuel industry." This isn't what the article/researcher says literally or figuratively.
        schiffern 3y ago
        That's literally directly in your quote, taken from the article. "However, the researcher said that this seemingly small difference could be a big deal when extrapolated over the whole fossil fuel industry." I can see we're done. cheers mate

Red_Leaves_Flyy 3y ago

By tiny you mean massive.

solarpunk 3y ago
true true.

schiffern 3y ago

I think the point is that it's not really a "tiny" error. Phrasing it as "91% vs 98% efficient" makes it seem like it's only 'off' by a factor of 1.08x, but what really matters for the climate is 9% vs 2% leak rate — a whopping 4.5x! Perhaps surprisingly, this 'simple math' for us isn't obvious to a large fraction of the population. For better comprehension it would be nice if the article had pointed it out specifically. Methane is a great low hanging fruit to tackle first. Its atmospheric half-life is 8-12 years, which means slashing emissions now can 'bend the curve' in decades, not centuries. Upcoming satellites will monitor all emissions globally, with day-by-day and well-by-well granularity.

caminante 3y ago
>For better comprehension it would be nice if the article had pointed it out specifically. Don't need to patronize the reader with express restatements. And if someone doesn't understand 91 v 98%, do you really think they'll get 350% increase?
- schiffern 3y ago
  Inexplicably name-calling clear math communication as "patronizing" doesn't make it any less essential. The numbers are shocking. Based on the modest complexity of that task (I'd say between upper Level 2 and Level 3), perhaps 35-50% of Americans are able to complete the task.[0] >And if someone doesn't understand 91 v 98%, do you really think they'll get 350% increase? Sure, if you explain it. "4.5 times" is a good phrase. Doesn't take up many column inches. It's a much harder leap to go straight from "91% vs 98%" to "that means 350% more," which is what the article is currently expecting. Since we've apparently agreed not to have a working education system, maybe we should at least explain key global environmental threats in mass media in terms the majority of citizens can actually understand. Just a thought. [0] https://www.wyliecomm.com/2021/11/whats-the-latest-u-s-numeracy-rate/ https://www.wyliecomm.com/2021/11/whats-the-latest-u-s-numer...
  - caminante 3y ago
    >Inexplicably... Not true. Did you miss the part of the article that highlights why the seemingly small % difference is a big deal due to methane's global warming potential? [0] [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39323155 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39323155 Now to your article, an ArsTechnica audience likely isn't representative of a numbersense survey for average americans with fuzzy buckets. And I see your article as making my point.
    - schiffern 3y ago
      >Did you miss the part of the article that highlights... Thanks. It's more troubling than I thought. It seems the authors themselves may not understand the math! "The difference between the assumed efficiency of flaring and the efficiency found in Kort and his colleagues’ results is a matter of a few percentage points. However, the researcher said that this seemingly small difference could be a big deal when extrapolated over the whole fossil fuel industry. Further, methane has more than 80 times the impact when it comes to warming the planet—at least during the first 20 years it spends in the air." It isn't a problem because it's a small difference "extrapolated over the whole fossil fuel industry." It isn't a problem because it's a small difference but methane is worse than CO2. It's a problem because it's a huge difference: over a quadrupling in total emissions. Re-reading, the authors never actually realize/acknowledge this. Truly the blind leading the blind! :o
      - caminante 3y ago
        > This isn't a problem because it's a small fraction "extrapolated over the whole fossil fuel industry." This isn't what the article/researcher says literally or figuratively.
        schiffern 3y ago
        That's literally directly in your quote, taken from the article. "However, the researcher said that this seemingly small difference could be a big deal when extrapolated over the whole fossil fuel industry." I can see we're done. cheers mate