5 ms·

Toyota got mocked for rejecting EV hype – not anymore

29 points by carabiner 3y ago

kristianp 3y ago
https://archive.is/tfRlb https://archive.is/tfRlb
- neonate 3y ago
  http://web.archive.org/web/20240209234142/https://fortune.com/2024/02/08/toyota-hybrid-vehicles-carmakers-strategy-electric-vehicles-hype/ http://web.archive.org/web/20240209234142/https://fortune.co...
kristianp 3y ago
Lol, while they dither, BYD is rapidly eating parts of their market. By the time Toyota builds their factories other makers will have had a full range of vehicles for years.
- consumer451 3y ago
  I would also lol, if it wasn't all so tragic. Like ostriches hiding from the threat, their heads are buried deeply in the sand.
- serf 3y ago
  it never fails to amaze me that when talking about EV groups that it's always just universally presumed that making a good quality, reliable, easy to service and maintain vehicle is a solved problem, and that all that matters now is whether or not you offer a specific drive-train. even this late into the game Toyota is at a significant advantage compared to most EV groups : they have the whole 'vehicle' thing just-about mastered, they have significant production capability, and they've been dabbling with electric technologies just about longer than anyone aside from GM. Meanwhile BYD and Tesla are still struggling with body panel fit-and-finish, delivery, repair turnaround, parts availability and numerous small QC problems. Offering an electric drivetrain is many times easier than fixing those other problems; Toyota should know -- they've been chasing those same problems and squashing them since 1935.
  - consumer451 3y ago
    I agree, so it's the battery packs which give BYD and Tesla the "advantage" in EVs. Toyota still makes excellent cars, just when EV, the range is not competitive. What is Toyota doing on the battery front? It should be a multi-billion investment. I realize that the energy story is complicated in Japan, but they are a global brand.
  - reducesuffering 3y ago
    This theory would make more sense if we didn't have the actual practical example of the Toyota BZ4x being a crappy vehicle.
  - dublinben 3y ago
    > it's always just universally presumed that making a good quality, reliable, easy to service and maintain vehicle is a solved problem You’ve just described a bicycle.
- carabiner 3y ago
  Toyota's failure is right around the corner. Meanwhile, they've not been able to manufacture enough gas hybrids to meet demand for the last 4 years. Months to years long waitlists on the Prius, Rav4, and so on. Car market changes slowly. What people get today, they will have for 5-10 years. Especially millennials who are struggling to make rent. Toyota doesn't need to catch up to EVs; it's the other way around.
iAMkenough 3y ago
It's a Kodak moment. This praise comes from the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank that does not support alternatives to reliance on the oil industry.
- jki275 3y ago
  Your characterization of the Heritage Foundation's position on energy is not really accurate or supportable. At the very least they have several articles on their site supporting nuclear energy. https://www.heritage.org/energy/commentary/time-bring-nuclear-energy-the-21st-century https://www.heritage.org/energy/commentary/time-bring-nuclea...
  - dpkirchner 3y ago
    There's folks that suggest nuclear energy is promoted not as an alternative to fossil fuels (because it won't actually be built, at least not in sufficient quantity any time soon) but as a way to discourage wind and PV and thus tacitly support the status quo. https://www.commondreams.org/news/triple-nuclear-power-cop28 https://www.commondreams.org/news/triple-nuclear-power-cop28 Of course, this is just one opinion battling another.
  - nebula8804 3y ago
    I guess they know that nuclear is a failed proposition in the US (and everywhere except China) so they can redirect focus from renewables into chasing this bridge to nowhere.
  - charred_patina 3y ago
    > Denying the world access to clean, affordable fuels like gas, oil, and coal is a real problem. This is literally the second sentence of that article.
- TheLoafOfBread 3y ago
  BEVs are more like 3DTV moment. It looks good on paper, but is annoying to use.
vsskanth 3y ago
They're betting on solid state batteries for their EVs and offer hybrids until they are able to start making them. Not sure how the solid state bet is going to play out but so far their hybrid strategy is working quite well. Their hybrids are selling out before they even leave the factory. It makes sense because they have a huge reputation for reliability and are sometimes the only hybrid offering in some segments like minivans and large three row SUVs. Other manufacturers have bet on developing platforms using current battery tech but sales of current gen EVs seem to have stalled. Customers are thinking rationally. You can either buy a current gen EV and deal with the depreciation or buy a hybrid and keep it until EVs mature and it's time to switch.
- iAMkenough 3y ago
  Their bet on hybrids with the Prius in the late 1990s-early 2000s definitely was a worthwhile one.
- BeefWellington 3y ago
  > sales of current gen EVs seem to have stalled. Have they? I've seen this repeated a few times but all the various articles[1][2] I can find that say anything about this are saying that the growth rate slowed slightly, probably due to interest rate rises, but not that sales have dipped or even plateaued overall. The main decreases seem to be driven by specific models declining[3] but otherwise the industry is healthy. [1]: https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1327-january-29-2024-annual-new-light-duty-ev-sales-topped-1-million https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1327-janu... [2]: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-09/tesla-rakes-in-9-billion-from-carmakers-failing-to-sell-enough-evs https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-09/tesla-rak... [3]: https://www.carscoops.com/2024/02/fords-ev-sales-drop-11-while-hybrids-surge-43-in-january/ https://www.carscoops.com/2024/02/fords-ev-sales-drop-11-whi...
  - rapjr9 3y ago
    The NY Times has an article about why sales of F150 Lightning EV Pickups have declined: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/07/business/fords-f150-lightning-electric-pickup-trucks.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/07/business/fords-f150-light... Reading that I was struck by how often they defer to dealers. My understanding is that dealers don't like EV's because it cuts their lucrative repair profits. If the dealers won't sell the EV's then it looks like demand has collapsed. But maybe it's just that the dealers are not pushing the EV's. It seems very suspicious that three months ago EV sales were booming and now they are not, for all brands simultaneously. I suspect a propaganda campaign. It also seems that Ford's mileage estimator doesn't take into account temperature and they have not added a heat pump to the battery to optimize its temperature. So it is no wonder owners are surprised when the range meter drops by 70 miles when they drive 35 miles.
BeefWellington 3y ago
Toyota didn't really reject the EV hype as much as they had just already invested heavily in alternatives[1] and probably couldn't afford to go the battery route. In a way, the focus on hydrogen fuel cells is smart; they can in the meantime have their whole hybrid line benefit from any battery tech improvements and slowly build out a decent fueling network. Unfortunately there may become a slight sunk cost thing around chargers in your home and reuse of those as the first few generations of EVs begin to get replaced. If FCEVs are for sale but you already have a charger in your house that is otherwise gonna go to waste, and you can "refuel" at home, what's the compelling case to buy a new car using a fuel cell? [1]: https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1KG0Y0/ https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1KG0Y0/
- tw8345 3y ago
  The Hydrogen bet was a pretty bad bet too its not going to materialize outside of japan
iamleppert 3y ago
EVs are a textbook case in falling in love with a solution, not the problem. The focus should be on producing an efficient, reliable and cost effective vehicle that is widely accessible to as many people as possible. When measured against that criteria, how well does Tesla actually stand up? Outside of tech and car enthusiasts, people view cars as a tool that gets them from place to place. I don’t care if it’s an EV if it’s more expensive, less reliable and a hassle. I don’t care about self driving features and don’t want my life to revolve around a form of transportation.
- consumer451 3y ago
  To your first point, "The focus should be on producing an efficient..." it's not even close: > Out of the 8.9 million barrels of gasoline consumed daily in the U.S. on average, only 1.8 million gallons, or approximately 20 percent, actually propel an internal combustion vehicle forward. The other 80 percent is wasted on heat and parasitic auxiliary components that draw away energy. As the world begins its shift to EV proliferattion, the good news is electric vehicles are far more energy efficient on the road. [0] Meanwhile, EVs start at around 77% energy efficiency and go up from there. This alone is why EVs will take over mobility. [0] https://www.motortrend.com/news/evs-more-efficient-than-internal-combustion-engines/ https://www.motortrend.com/news/evs-more-efficient-than-inte...
- paulryanrogers 3y ago
  Like trains and buses?
- TSiege 3y ago
  Fixed it for you: EVs are a textbook case in falling in love with a solution, not the problem. The focus should be on producing an efficient, reliable and cost effective _public transit systems_ that are widely accessible to as many people as possible.
  - phan 3y ago
    That grossly ignores the majority of rural america where public transit systems will never effectively serve their needs given the economics
m463 3y ago
> Because of my strong passion for cars, I am an old-fashioned person in regards to digitalization, electric vehicles, and connected cars I can get behind the "digitalization" and "connected cars" opinions. For example, tesla has removed (almost) all dedicated controls and put everything on a touchscreen. On the latest cars, it has no shift lever (it guesses), no turn signal stalk (it is a touchpad on steering wheel that moves) and more mess. headlights, horn, defrost, climate controls, entertainment system need dedicated controls for muscle memory, instead they are difficult to control and make you a worse driver. the connected car thing? You should be able to disconnect or firewall your car. Nope.
- chrisjc 3y ago
  I feel the same way and struggle with lack of physical controls on my phone (eg iphone flashlight!!!). I couldn't imagine operating a car this way. That said, just want to point out a couple of things that I don't think are true. > it has no shift lever (it guesses) There are shift buttons up near the rear mirror on Tesla's latest two vehicles (truck and highland). > it is a touchpad on steering wheel that moves I think they're actually real buttons. Still not a stalk though. They're even putting in a steering wheel horn on new models too. I think I would still have an issue despite bringing some of these things back. I doubt consumers will have any control over this in the near future though, and learn to deal with it :/ Regarding iphone flashlight, every time i try to click on it, it moves right above as if i'm trying to unlock it. Set the triple back-tap option which works 1/10th of the time.
ChrisArchitect 3y ago
[dupe] / Related: Toyota cashes in on booming hybrid sales https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39275897 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39275897
mensetmanusman 3y ago
A fun radical policy is free charging for electric vehicles subsidized by externalities through gas taxes.
- syndicatedjelly 3y ago
  Why is that considered “radical”?
Aspos 3y ago
It is funny how much they are willing to spend on PR and articles supporting their stock value instead of focusing on R&D.

29 points by carabiner 3y ago

kristianp 3y ago

https://archive.is/tfRlb https://archive.is/tfRlb

neonate 3y ago
http://web.archive.org/web/20240209234142/https://fortune.com/2024/02/08/toyota-hybrid-vehicles-carmakers-strategy-electric-vehicles-hype/ http://web.archive.org/web/20240209234142/https://fortune.co...

kristianp 3y ago

Lol, while they dither, BYD is rapidly eating parts of their market. By the time Toyota builds their factories other makers will have had a full range of vehicles for years.

consumer451 3y ago
I would also lol, if it wasn't all so tragic. Like ostriches hiding from the threat, their heads are buried deeply in the sand.
serf 3y ago
it never fails to amaze me that when talking about EV groups that it's always just universally presumed that making a good quality, reliable, easy to service and maintain vehicle is a solved problem, and that all that matters now is whether or not you offer a specific drive-train. even this late into the game Toyota is at a significant advantage compared to most EV groups : they have the whole 'vehicle' thing just-about mastered, they have significant production capability, and they've been dabbling with electric technologies just about longer than anyone aside from GM. Meanwhile BYD and Tesla are still struggling with body panel fit-and-finish, delivery, repair turnaround, parts availability and numerous small QC problems. Offering an electric drivetrain is many times easier than fixing those other problems; Toyota should know -- they've been chasing those same problems and squashing them since 1935.
- consumer451 3y ago
  I agree, so it's the battery packs which give BYD and Tesla the "advantage" in EVs. Toyota still makes excellent cars, just when EV, the range is not competitive. What is Toyota doing on the battery front? It should be a multi-billion investment. I realize that the energy story is complicated in Japan, but they are a global brand.
- reducesuffering 3y ago
  This theory would make more sense if we didn't have the actual practical example of the Toyota BZ4x being a crappy vehicle.
- dublinben 3y ago
  > it's always just universally presumed that making a good quality, reliable, easy to service and maintain vehicle is a solved problem You’ve just described a bicycle.
carabiner 3y ago
Toyota's failure is right around the corner. Meanwhile, they've not been able to manufacture enough gas hybrids to meet demand for the last 4 years. Months to years long waitlists on the Prius, Rav4, and so on. Car market changes slowly. What people get today, they will have for 5-10 years. Especially millennials who are struggling to make rent. Toyota doesn't need to catch up to EVs; it's the other way around.

iAMkenough 3y ago

It's a Kodak moment. This praise comes from the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank that does not support alternatives to reliance on the oil industry.

jki275 3y ago
Your characterization of the Heritage Foundation's position on energy is not really accurate or supportable. At the very least they have several articles on their site supporting nuclear energy. https://www.heritage.org/energy/commentary/time-bring-nuclear-energy-the-21st-century https://www.heritage.org/energy/commentary/time-bring-nuclea...
- dpkirchner 3y ago
  There's folks that suggest nuclear energy is promoted not as an alternative to fossil fuels (because it won't actually be built, at least not in sufficient quantity any time soon) but as a way to discourage wind and PV and thus tacitly support the status quo. https://www.commondreams.org/news/triple-nuclear-power-cop28 https://www.commondreams.org/news/triple-nuclear-power-cop28 Of course, this is just one opinion battling another.
- nebula8804 3y ago
  I guess they know that nuclear is a failed proposition in the US (and everywhere except China) so they can redirect focus from renewables into chasing this bridge to nowhere.
- charred_patina 3y ago
  > Denying the world access to clean, affordable fuels like gas, oil, and coal is a real problem. This is literally the second sentence of that article.
TheLoafOfBread 3y ago
BEVs are more like 3DTV moment. It looks good on paper, but is annoying to use.

vsskanth 3y ago

They're betting on solid state batteries for their EVs and offer hybrids until they are able to start making them. Not sure how the solid state bet is going to play out but so far their hybrid strategy is working quite well. Their hybrids are selling out before they even leave the factory. It makes sense because they have a huge reputation for reliability and are sometimes the only hybrid offering in some segments like minivans and large three row SUVs. Other manufacturers have bet on developing platforms using current battery tech but sales of current gen EVs seem to have stalled. Customers are thinking rationally. You can either buy a current gen EV and deal with the depreciation or buy a hybrid and keep it until EVs mature and it's time to switch.

iAMkenough 3y ago
Their bet on hybrids with the Prius in the late 1990s-early 2000s definitely was a worthwhile one.
BeefWellington 3y ago
> sales of current gen EVs seem to have stalled. Have they? I've seen this repeated a few times but all the various articles[1][2] I can find that say anything about this are saying that the growth rate slowed slightly, probably due to interest rate rises, but not that sales have dipped or even plateaued overall. The main decreases seem to be driven by specific models declining[3] but otherwise the industry is healthy. [1]: https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1327-january-29-2024-annual-new-light-duty-ev-sales-topped-1-million https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1327-janu... [2]: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-09/tesla-rakes-in-9-billion-from-carmakers-failing-to-sell-enough-evs https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-09/tesla-rak... [3]: https://www.carscoops.com/2024/02/fords-ev-sales-drop-11-while-hybrids-surge-43-in-january/ https://www.carscoops.com/2024/02/fords-ev-sales-drop-11-whi...
- rapjr9 3y ago
  The NY Times has an article about why sales of F150 Lightning EV Pickups have declined: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/07/business/fords-f150-lightning-electric-pickup-trucks.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/07/business/fords-f150-light... Reading that I was struck by how often they defer to dealers. My understanding is that dealers don't like EV's because it cuts their lucrative repair profits. If the dealers won't sell the EV's then it looks like demand has collapsed. But maybe it's just that the dealers are not pushing the EV's. It seems very suspicious that three months ago EV sales were booming and now they are not, for all brands simultaneously. I suspect a propaganda campaign. It also seems that Ford's mileage estimator doesn't take into account temperature and they have not added a heat pump to the battery to optimize its temperature. So it is no wonder owners are surprised when the range meter drops by 70 miles when they drive 35 miles.

BeefWellington 3y ago

Toyota didn't really reject the EV hype as much as they had just already invested heavily in alternatives[1] and probably couldn't afford to go the battery route. In a way, the focus on hydrogen fuel cells is smart; they can in the meantime have their whole hybrid line benefit from any battery tech improvements and slowly build out a decent fueling network. Unfortunately there may become a slight sunk cost thing around chargers in your home and reuse of those as the first few generations of EVs begin to get replaced. If FCEVs are for sale but you already have a charger in your house that is otherwise gonna go to waste, and you can "refuel" at home, what's the compelling case to buy a new car using a fuel cell? [1]: https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1KG0Y0/ https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1KG0Y0/

tw8345 3y ago
The Hydrogen bet was a pretty bad bet too its not going to materialize outside of japan

iamleppert 3y ago

EVs are a textbook case in falling in love with a solution, not the problem. The focus should be on producing an efficient, reliable and cost effective vehicle that is widely accessible to as many people as possible. When measured against that criteria, how well does Tesla actually stand up? Outside of tech and car enthusiasts, people view cars as a tool that gets them from place to place. I don’t care if it’s an EV if it’s more expensive, less reliable and a hassle. I don’t care about self driving features and don’t want my life to revolve around a form of transportation.

consumer451 3y ago
To your first point, "The focus should be on producing an efficient..." it's not even close: > Out of the 8.9 million barrels of gasoline consumed daily in the U.S. on average, only 1.8 million gallons, or approximately 20 percent, actually propel an internal combustion vehicle forward. The other 80 percent is wasted on heat and parasitic auxiliary components that draw away energy. As the world begins its shift to EV proliferattion, the good news is electric vehicles are far more energy efficient on the road. [0] Meanwhile, EVs start at around 77% energy efficiency and go up from there. This alone is why EVs will take over mobility. [0] https://www.motortrend.com/news/evs-more-efficient-than-internal-combustion-engines/ https://www.motortrend.com/news/evs-more-efficient-than-inte...
paulryanrogers 3y ago
Like trains and buses?
TSiege 3y ago
Fixed it for you: EVs are a textbook case in falling in love with a solution, not the problem. The focus should be on producing an efficient, reliable and cost effective _public transit systems_ that are widely accessible to as many people as possible.
- phan 3y ago
  That grossly ignores the majority of rural america where public transit systems will never effectively serve their needs given the economics

m463 3y ago

> Because of my strong passion for cars, I am an old-fashioned person in regards to digitalization, electric vehicles, and connected cars I can get behind the "digitalization" and "connected cars" opinions. For example, tesla has removed (almost) all dedicated controls and put everything on a touchscreen. On the latest cars, it has no shift lever (it guesses), no turn signal stalk (it is a touchpad on steering wheel that moves) and more mess. headlights, horn, defrost, climate controls, entertainment system need dedicated controls for muscle memory, instead they are difficult to control and make you a worse driver. the connected car thing? You should be able to disconnect or firewall your car. Nope.

chrisjc 3y ago
I feel the same way and struggle with lack of physical controls on my phone (eg iphone flashlight!!!). I couldn't imagine operating a car this way. That said, just want to point out a couple of things that I don't think are true. > it has no shift lever (it guesses) There are shift buttons up near the rear mirror on Tesla's latest two vehicles (truck and highland). > it is a touchpad on steering wheel that moves I think they're actually real buttons. Still not a stalk though. They're even putting in a steering wheel horn on new models too. I think I would still have an issue despite bringing some of these things back. I doubt consumers will have any control over this in the near future though, and learn to deal with it :/ Regarding iphone flashlight, every time i try to click on it, it moves right above as if i'm trying to unlock it. Set the triple back-tap option which works 1/10th of the time.

ChrisArchitect 3y ago

[dupe] / Related: Toyota cashes in on booming hybrid sales https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39275897 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39275897

mensetmanusman 3y ago

A fun radical policy is free charging for electric vehicles subsidized by externalities through gas taxes.

syndicatedjelly 3y ago
Why is that considered “radical”?

Aspos 3y ago

It is funny how much they are willing to spend on PR and articles supporting their stock value instead of focusing on R&D.