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2018 overstay B1/2 PRC ~0.8% Thailand ~2% PRC overstays in other tables also lower, frequently substantially. Maybe geopolitics changed between US/PRC since

2018 overstay B1/2 PRC ~0.8% Thailand ~2% PRC overstays in other tables also lower, frequently substantially. Maybe geopolitics changed between US/PRC since 2018? https://cis.org/sites/default/files/2020-01/19_0417_fy18-entry-and-exit-overstay-report.pdf https://cis.org/sites/default/files/2020-01/19_0417_fy18-ent... You're a well read guy, but I find some of your use of data in this thread to be a little confusing. E: Tsinghua study is about reclassifying based on household registeration, rural registered working in urban does not have access to urban level of social support, so less people should be considered urban even though they contribute to urban agglomeration effects. Which is what we think about when we measure urbanization. But it's not about whether rural PRC has less QoL than rural thai. Which sure, household income and HDI measures as proxy. But then tack on all the redistribution mechanisms, i.e. social transfers in kind where state subsidizes take home income and see it in practice and I find it difficult to believe (from what I see travelling both places, granted anedotal) average Thai has better QoL on when PRC per is 80% larger and per capita accounts for redistributed resources that supplements disposable income.

alephnerd 3y ago
2018 data doesn't explain the spike in 2022 data. > Maybe geopolitics changed between US/PRC since 2018? With worse geopolitics, you'd have fewer Chinese illegally overstaying their Visitor Visa (which by definition is illegal immigration). This is why there was a drop in H1/F1 category applications from China. There is no reason to overstay a visitor visa except undocumented work, especially since they are granted with 1-2 year blocks. If you had legal work status, you'd be granted a H1B/H2B. If you came for education, you'd be granted an F1. If you have a degree and a great lawyer, you'd be granted an O1. If you have millions of USD, you'd be granted an EB5 If you came for marriage, you would be granted a K1
- maxglute 3y ago
  You have more PRC illegally entering US from south due to US reducing issuing VISAs to PRC by large amount in last few years, IIRC CNN said over 80%, from 1m+ to low 100,000. Combined with reduced flights, the incentive for those who want to enter/overstay in US increase. Conversely 2022 data doesn't explain why data before US-PRC relations collapsed were overstaying less than Thais. I see the gov stats youre posting, but this is where my personal experience find it divorced from ground reality. HDI sure, rural PRC education probably shittier, health care access questionable, but household stuff and general development in urban/rural as proxy for income, PRC seems much better than Thailand.
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    > PRC illegally entering US from south due to US reducing issuing VISAs to PRC by large amount in last few years Which is a mark of desperation. Why are similarly large numbers of Thai nationals not doing the same? Nothing you say is disproving my larger point. You aren't going to pay cartels to traffic you into the US if all you want to do is sight see in NYC. > Conversely 2022 data doesn't explain why data before US-PRC relations collapsed were overstaying less than Thais. I agree. Which is why the geopolitical argument you propose doesn't make sense. > personal experience find it divorced from ground reality I don't know your ground reality. But if you are on this forum, you probably live or lived in a T1 city working a high income white collar job in the booming Chinese tech industry. Most Chinese aren't. And this is where the difference comes in. Beijing and Tianjin are great QoL wise when you earn a high income, yet neighboring Hebei has been fairly impoverished for a long time. Not as bad as previously ofc. Yet much worse than Pathan Thani or Ayutthaya (the Thai equivalent of Hebei). Hell, if you travel to Isaan, the Thai version of Guizhou or Gansu, the difference between the two is stark. I have traveled thru Hebei, Beijing, etc in the late 2010s as I have traveled Isan, BKK, and Ayutthaya as well in Thailand. > HDI sure, rural PRC education probably shittier, health care access questionable, but household stuff and general development in urban/rural as proxy for income, PRC seems much better than Thailand So, ignoring the stats that calculate life for the average person, not the top 20-30%.
    - maxglute 3y ago
      >Which is a mark of desperation. There's a lot more PRC people so you would get more desperate people. Desperate people want to goto US. Desperate Thais without VISA drama just go and overstay, and they've historically overstayed more than PRC when US didn't crack down on PRC VISA. That's the control. Post VISA drama, the amount of PRC who are trying to sneak into US vs net drop in PRC who travel to US is drop in bucket, 30k wants to go, but 1M+ simply choose to forgo. Under previous control circumstances, PRC who wants to goto US and illegally overstay just... fly to US or Can and overstay, same method as Thais, but at less % than Thai. Hence it's geopolitics of VISA changes driving increased VISA changes. Because the people paying the snake heads also seem to be T2 / middle income tier, i.e. they have to be resourced to make the trip in the first place, and they have the opportunity to go because PRC influence in LATAM (triad) have setup good asylum schemes because US state sucker for PRC repression story. They're as much desperate as they are opportunists because geopolitcs has made asylum claims another avenue for getting into US. > live or lived in a T1 city I lived in T1, but I travelled T2/T3 where family are, including even worse bumfuck nowhere rust belt in the north. I see the differences. QoL in these places were still better than what I experienced in rural Thai (away from tourist areas), i.e. Isaan being better than Guizhou and Gansu I find not credible. Well I mean obviously Isann is much better than Gansu as a tourist. Rural Isaan was much more pleasant but people in rural Gansu has more stuff. Which leads to: > stats Stats for development, not stats for broad QoL, which HDI can be proxy indicator but doesn't capture full Qol reality, i.e. I replied with edit above, there's all sorts of additional social transfer / subsidies from central gov to PRC backwaters that supplement income and make QoL for your undereducated peasant/nongming better than disposable income would suggest. They have less HDI QoL but better actual QoL, which is what matters because padding their resumes with education that they're too old to make productive use of is dumb use or resources than just subsidize their income with modern infra, consumption and services. A lot of that doesn't get captured in disposable income and HDI. But it adds up substantially when gov has 5000 more per capita to play various fiscal transfers with, especially if they use to specifically to uplift bottom quantile.

alephnerd 3y ago

2018 data doesn't explain the spike in 2022 data. > Maybe geopolitics changed between US/PRC since 2018? With worse geopolitics, you'd have fewer Chinese illegally overstaying their Visitor Visa (which by definition is illegal immigration). This is why there was a drop in H1/F1 category applications from China. There is no reason to overstay a visitor visa except undocumented work, especially since they are granted with 1-2 year blocks. If you had legal work status, you'd be granted a H1B/H2B. If you came for education, you'd be granted an F1. If you have a degree and a great lawyer, you'd be granted an O1. If you have millions of USD, you'd be granted an EB5 If you came for marriage, you would be granted a K1

maxglute 3y ago
You have more PRC illegally entering US from south due to US reducing issuing VISAs to PRC by large amount in last few years, IIRC CNN said over 80%, from 1m+ to low 100,000. Combined with reduced flights, the incentive for those who want to enter/overstay in US increase. Conversely 2022 data doesn't explain why data before US-PRC relations collapsed were overstaying less than Thais. I see the gov stats youre posting, but this is where my personal experience find it divorced from ground reality. HDI sure, rural PRC education probably shittier, health care access questionable, but household stuff and general development in urban/rural as proxy for income, PRC seems much better than Thailand.
- alephnerd 3y ago
  > PRC illegally entering US from south due to US reducing issuing VISAs to PRC by large amount in last few years Which is a mark of desperation. Why are similarly large numbers of Thai nationals not doing the same? Nothing you say is disproving my larger point. You aren't going to pay cartels to traffic you into the US if all you want to do is sight see in NYC. > Conversely 2022 data doesn't explain why data before US-PRC relations collapsed were overstaying less than Thais. I agree. Which is why the geopolitical argument you propose doesn't make sense. > personal experience find it divorced from ground reality I don't know your ground reality. But if you are on this forum, you probably live or lived in a T1 city working a high income white collar job in the booming Chinese tech industry. Most Chinese aren't. And this is where the difference comes in. Beijing and Tianjin are great QoL wise when you earn a high income, yet neighboring Hebei has been fairly impoverished for a long time. Not as bad as previously ofc. Yet much worse than Pathan Thani or Ayutthaya (the Thai equivalent of Hebei). Hell, if you travel to Isaan, the Thai version of Guizhou or Gansu, the difference between the two is stark. I have traveled thru Hebei, Beijing, etc in the late 2010s as I have traveled Isan, BKK, and Ayutthaya as well in Thailand. > HDI sure, rural PRC education probably shittier, health care access questionable, but household stuff and general development in urban/rural as proxy for income, PRC seems much better than Thailand So, ignoring the stats that calculate life for the average person, not the top 20-30%.
  - maxglute 3y ago
    >Which is a mark of desperation. There's a lot more PRC people so you would get more desperate people. Desperate people want to goto US. Desperate Thais without VISA drama just go and overstay, and they've historically overstayed more than PRC when US didn't crack down on PRC VISA. That's the control. Post VISA drama, the amount of PRC who are trying to sneak into US vs net drop in PRC who travel to US is drop in bucket, 30k wants to go, but 1M+ simply choose to forgo. Under previous control circumstances, PRC who wants to goto US and illegally overstay just... fly to US or Can and overstay, same method as Thais, but at less % than Thai. Hence it's geopolitics of VISA changes driving increased VISA changes. Because the people paying the snake heads also seem to be T2 / middle income tier, i.e. they have to be resourced to make the trip in the first place, and they have the opportunity to go because PRC influence in LATAM (triad) have setup good asylum schemes because US state sucker for PRC repression story. They're as much desperate as they are opportunists because geopolitcs has made asylum claims another avenue for getting into US. > live or lived in a T1 city I lived in T1, but I travelled T2/T3 where family are, including even worse bumfuck nowhere rust belt in the north. I see the differences. QoL in these places were still better than what I experienced in rural Thai (away from tourist areas), i.e. Isaan being better than Guizhou and Gansu I find not credible. Well I mean obviously Isann is much better than Gansu as a tourist. Rural Isaan was much more pleasant but people in rural Gansu has more stuff. Which leads to: > stats Stats for development, not stats for broad QoL, which HDI can be proxy indicator but doesn't capture full Qol reality, i.e. I replied with edit above, there's all sorts of additional social transfer / subsidies from central gov to PRC backwaters that supplement income and make QoL for your undereducated peasant/nongming better than disposable income would suggest. They have less HDI QoL but better actual QoL, which is what matters because padding their resumes with education that they're too old to make productive use of is dumb use or resources than just subsidize their income with modern infra, consumption and services. A lot of that doesn't get captured in disposable income and HDI. But it adds up substantially when gov has 5000 more per capita to play various fiscal transfers with, especially if they use to specifically to uplift bottom quantile.