4 ms·

Going back 10 years of data fromt travel.state, PRC B visa refusal rate looks 2-5% lower than Thailand precovid. Now it's ~2-5% higher, but that's more likely d

Going back 10 years of data fromt travel.state, PRC B visa refusal rate looks 2-5% lower than Thailand precovid. Now it's ~2-5% higher, but that's more likely due to geopolitics, not average Thai who can travel suddenly becoming richer than average PRC who can travel. Especially considering US/PRC flights still have restored to full capacity. SK/JP VISA free travel seems like a strange indicator to back up assertion, also more factor of geopolitics. I'm guessing average middle class PRC traveller is a larger spender than average thai traveller, especially to SK/JP. Unless the assertion that without VISA there'd be more low income travellers from PRC, but that's something airline supply/demand will filter out. Eitherway, housing price makes some sense, but this data still feels off, considering PRC is at 65% urbanization vs Thai 50%, and neither urban nor rural thai measures up to urban or rural PRC from my travels.

alephnerd 3y ago
> Going back 10 years of data fromt travel.state, PRC B visa refusal rate looks 2-5% lower than Thailand precovid In 2022, 22% of Chinese B1/2 applicants overstayed in the US versus 8% of Thai applicants [0]. That is a massive discrepancy, and hard to attribute for any other reason except economic. The primary factor to getting a B1/2 visa is proof that you will not overstay in the US or become a Ward of State > SK/JP VISA free travel seems like a strange indicator to back up assertion Because SK and JP grant tourist visas based on overstay risks and proof of income as well. That's why much poorer Vietnam doesn't have visa free travel to JP or SK despite having extremely permissive FTAs with both countries. > without VISA there'd be more low income travellers from PRC, but that's something airline supply/demand will filter out Or, you know, visa free status and overstay rates by country. > Eitherway, housing price makes some sense, but this data still feels off, considering PRC is at 65% urbanization vs Thai 50%, and neither urban nor rural thai measures up to urban or rural PRC from my travels. Well, firstly, Chinese urbanization rates seem to be miscounted upwards, as Tsinghua noted [1] for 2019 and earlier data. The Chinese numbers are closer to 50-55%. Secondly, rural and urban incomes are starkly different in Thailand versus China, as both countries government released statistics have shown, and even Thailand's National and Local HDI statistics have proven. There's no way around it, the average Thai (who lives a rural or semi-rural life) has a better quality of life than the average Chinese person (who also lives a rural or semi-rural life) [0] - https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2023-07/23_0707_FY22_FY23_CBP_Integrated_Entry_Exit_Overstay_Report.pdf https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2023-07/23_0707_FY22... [1] - https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/CPE-10-2019-0018/full/html https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/CPE-10-2...
- maxglute 3y ago
  2018 overstay B1/2 PRC ~0.8% Thailand ~2% PRC overstays in other tables also lower, frequently substantially. Maybe geopolitics changed between US/PRC since 2018? https://cis.org/sites/default/files/2020-01/19_0417_fy18-entry-and-exit-overstay-report.pdf https://cis.org/sites/default/files/2020-01/19_0417_fy18-ent... You're a well read guy, but I find some of your use of data in this thread to be a little confusing. E: Tsinghua study is about reclassifying based on household registeration, rural registered working in urban does not have access to urban level of social support, so less people should be considered urban even though they contribute to urban agglomeration effects. Which is what we think about when we measure urbanization. But it's not about whether rural PRC has less QoL than rural thai. Which sure, household income and HDI measures as proxy. But then tack on all the redistribution mechanisms, i.e. social transfers in kind where state subsidizes take home income and see it in practice and I find it difficult to believe (from what I see travelling both places, granted anedotal) average Thai has better QoL on when PRC per is 80% larger and per capita accounts for redistributed resources that supplements disposable income.
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    2018 data doesn't explain the spike in 2022 data. > Maybe geopolitics changed between US/PRC since 2018? With worse geopolitics, you'd have fewer Chinese illegally overstaying their Visitor Visa (which by definition is illegal immigration). This is why there was a drop in H1/F1 category applications from China. There is no reason to overstay a visitor visa except undocumented work, especially since they are granted with 1-2 year blocks. If you had legal work status, you'd be granted a H1B/H2B. If you came for education, you'd be granted an F1. If you have a degree and a great lawyer, you'd be granted an O1. If you have millions of USD, you'd be granted an EB5 If you came for marriage, you would be granted a K1
    - maxglute 3y ago
      You have more PRC illegally entering US from south due to US reducing issuing VISAs to PRC by large amount in last few years, IIRC CNN said over 80%, from 1m+ to low 100,000. Combined with reduced flights, the incentive for those who want to enter/overstay in US increase. Conversely 2022 data doesn't explain why data before US-PRC relations collapsed were overstaying less than Thais. I see the gov stats youre posting, but this is where my personal experience find it divorced from ground reality. HDI sure, rural PRC education probably shittier, health care access questionable, but household stuff and general development in urban/rural as proxy for income, PRC seems much better than Thailand.

alephnerd 3y ago

> Going back 10 years of data fromt travel.state, PRC B visa refusal rate looks 2-5% lower than Thailand precovid In 2022, 22% of Chinese B1/2 applicants overstayed in the US versus 8% of Thai applicants [0]. That is a massive discrepancy, and hard to attribute for any other reason except economic. The primary factor to getting a B1/2 visa is proof that you will not overstay in the US or become a Ward of State > SK/JP VISA free travel seems like a strange indicator to back up assertion Because SK and JP grant tourist visas based on overstay risks and proof of income as well. That's why much poorer Vietnam doesn't have visa free travel to JP or SK despite having extremely permissive FTAs with both countries. > without VISA there'd be more low income travellers from PRC, but that's something airline supply/demand will filter out Or, you know, visa free status and overstay rates by country. > Eitherway, housing price makes some sense, but this data still feels off, considering PRC is at 65% urbanization vs Thai 50%, and neither urban nor rural thai measures up to urban or rural PRC from my travels. Well, firstly, Chinese urbanization rates seem to be miscounted upwards, as Tsinghua noted [1] for 2019 and earlier data. The Chinese numbers are closer to 50-55%. Secondly, rural and urban incomes are starkly different in Thailand versus China, as both countries government released statistics have shown, and even Thailand's National and Local HDI statistics have proven. There's no way around it, the average Thai (who lives a rural or semi-rural life) has a better quality of life than the average Chinese person (who also lives a rural or semi-rural life) [0] - https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2023-07/23_0707_FY22_FY23_CBP_Integrated_Entry_Exit_Overstay_Report.pdf https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2023-07/23_0707_FY22... [1] - https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/CPE-10-2019-0018/full/html https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/CPE-10-2...

maxglute 3y ago
2018 overstay B1/2 PRC ~0.8% Thailand ~2% PRC overstays in other tables also lower, frequently substantially. Maybe geopolitics changed between US/PRC since 2018? https://cis.org/sites/default/files/2020-01/19_0417_fy18-entry-and-exit-overstay-report.pdf https://cis.org/sites/default/files/2020-01/19_0417_fy18-ent... You're a well read guy, but I find some of your use of data in this thread to be a little confusing. E: Tsinghua study is about reclassifying based on household registeration, rural registered working in urban does not have access to urban level of social support, so less people should be considered urban even though they contribute to urban agglomeration effects. Which is what we think about when we measure urbanization. But it's not about whether rural PRC has less QoL than rural thai. Which sure, household income and HDI measures as proxy. But then tack on all the redistribution mechanisms, i.e. social transfers in kind where state subsidizes take home income and see it in practice and I find it difficult to believe (from what I see travelling both places, granted anedotal) average Thai has better QoL on when PRC per is 80% larger and per capita accounts for redistributed resources that supplements disposable income.
- alephnerd 3y ago
  2018 data doesn't explain the spike in 2022 data. > Maybe geopolitics changed between US/PRC since 2018? With worse geopolitics, you'd have fewer Chinese illegally overstaying their Visitor Visa (which by definition is illegal immigration). This is why there was a drop in H1/F1 category applications from China. There is no reason to overstay a visitor visa except undocumented work, especially since they are granted with 1-2 year blocks. If you had legal work status, you'd be granted a H1B/H2B. If you came for education, you'd be granted an F1. If you have a degree and a great lawyer, you'd be granted an O1. If you have millions of USD, you'd be granted an EB5 If you came for marriage, you would be granted a K1
  - maxglute 3y ago
    You have more PRC illegally entering US from south due to US reducing issuing VISAs to PRC by large amount in last few years, IIRC CNN said over 80%, from 1m+ to low 100,000. Combined with reduced flights, the incentive for those who want to enter/overstay in US increase. Conversely 2022 data doesn't explain why data before US-PRC relations collapsed were overstaying less than Thais. I see the gov stats youre posting, but this is where my personal experience find it divorced from ground reality. HDI sure, rural PRC education probably shittier, health care access questionable, but household stuff and general development in urban/rural as proxy for income, PRC seems much better than Thailand.