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I don't read Thai, but both Google and ChatGPT translate รายได้โดยเฉลี่ยต่อเดือนต่อครัวเรือน รายจังหวัด พ.ศ. as "average monthly household income" rather than m

by Aunche 3y ago

I don't read Thai, but both Google and ChatGPT translate รายได้โดยเฉลี่ยต่อเดือนต่อครัวเรือน รายจังหวัด พ.ศ. as "average monthly household income" rather than median. I find it rather difficult to believe that median incomes are Thailand because prices seem lower in Bangkok than even a tier 3 city in China.

alephnerd 3y ago
Thai to English translation via Google Translate is utter trash for some reason, but here's the Disposable Income stats the Thai Govt provided [0] and matches the data I provided above. Also, Thai B1/2 refusal rates are significantly lower than Chinese B1/2 rates (B1/2 is largely judged based on economic capacity) and Thailand doesn't even have an exit pass requirement. Also, Thai citizens can travel to SK and JP visa free but Chinese can't, which further proves the point. > prices seem lower in Bangkok than even a tier 3 city in China Because of housing. After the Housing Market crash happened in 1997 due to overbuilding, Thailand has a severe deflationary period similar to what China is facing today. Most Western FMCGs in ASEAN are also manufactured in Thailand and don't have a luxury tax (0% in Thailand versus 30-40% in China), which has helped keep prices low. This and the large Chinese Thai community is why Thailand became a popular tourist destination for middle class Chinese before COVID [0] - https://www.nso.go.th/nsoweb/storage/survey_detail/2023/20231018103954_32528.pdf https://www.nso.go.th/nsoweb/storage/survey_detail/2023/2023...
- maxglute 3y ago
  Going back 10 years of data fromt travel.state, PRC B visa refusal rate looks 2-5% lower than Thailand precovid. Now it's ~2-5% higher, but that's more likely due to geopolitics, not average Thai who can travel suddenly becoming richer than average PRC who can travel. Especially considering US/PRC flights still have restored to full capacity. SK/JP VISA free travel seems like a strange indicator to back up assertion, also more factor of geopolitics. I'm guessing average middle class PRC traveller is a larger spender than average thai traveller, especially to SK/JP. Unless the assertion that without VISA there'd be more low income travellers from PRC, but that's something airline supply/demand will filter out. Eitherway, housing price makes some sense, but this data still feels off, considering PRC is at 65% urbanization vs Thai 50%, and neither urban nor rural thai measures up to urban or rural PRC from my travels.
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    > Going back 10 years of data fromt travel.state, PRC B visa refusal rate looks 2-5% lower than Thailand precovid In 2022, 22% of Chinese B1/2 applicants overstayed in the US versus 8% of Thai applicants [0]. That is a massive discrepancy, and hard to attribute for any other reason except economic. The primary factor to getting a B1/2 visa is proof that you will not overstay in the US or become a Ward of State > SK/JP VISA free travel seems like a strange indicator to back up assertion Because SK and JP grant tourist visas based on overstay risks and proof of income as well. That's why much poorer Vietnam doesn't have visa free travel to JP or SK despite having extremely permissive FTAs with both countries. > without VISA there'd be more low income travellers from PRC, but that's something airline supply/demand will filter out Or, you know, visa free status and overstay rates by country. > Eitherway, housing price makes some sense, but this data still feels off, considering PRC is at 65% urbanization vs Thai 50%, and neither urban nor rural thai measures up to urban or rural PRC from my travels. Well, firstly, Chinese urbanization rates seem to be miscounted upwards, as Tsinghua noted [1] for 2019 and earlier data. The Chinese numbers are closer to 50-55%. Secondly, rural and urban incomes are starkly different in Thailand versus China, as both countries government released statistics have shown, and even Thailand's National and Local HDI statistics have proven. There's no way around it, the average Thai (who lives a rural or semi-rural life) has a better quality of life than the average Chinese person (who also lives a rural or semi-rural life) [0] - https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2023-07/23_0707_FY22_FY23_CBP_Integrated_Entry_Exit_Overstay_Report.pdf https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2023-07/23_0707_FY22... [1] - https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/CPE-10-2019-0018/full/html https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/CPE-10-2...
    - maxglute 3y ago
      2018 overstay B1/2 PRC ~0.8% Thailand ~2% PRC overstays in other tables also lower, frequently substantially. Maybe geopolitics changed between US/PRC since 2018? https://cis.org/sites/default/files/2020-01/19_0417_fy18-entry-and-exit-overstay-report.pdf https://cis.org/sites/default/files/2020-01/19_0417_fy18-ent... You're a well read guy, but I find some of your use of data in this thread to be a little confusing. E: Tsinghua study is about reclassifying based on household registeration, rural registered working in urban does not have access to urban level of social support, so less people should be considered urban even though they contribute to urban agglomeration effects. Which is what we think about when we measure urbanization. But it's not about whether rural PRC has less QoL than rural thai. Which sure, household income and HDI measures as proxy. But then tack on all the redistribution mechanisms, i.e. social transfers in kind where state subsidizes take home income and see it in practice and I find it difficult to believe (from what I see travelling both places, granted anedotal) average Thai has better QoL on when PRC per is 80% larger and per capita accounts for redistributed resources that supplements disposable income.

by Aunche 3y ago

alephnerd 3y ago

Thai to English translation via Google Translate is utter trash for some reason, but here's the Disposable Income stats the Thai Govt provided [0] and matches the data I provided above. Also, Thai B1/2 refusal rates are significantly lower than Chinese B1/2 rates (B1/2 is largely judged based on economic capacity) and Thailand doesn't even have an exit pass requirement. Also, Thai citizens can travel to SK and JP visa free but Chinese can't, which further proves the point. > prices seem lower in Bangkok than even a tier 3 city in China Because of housing. After the Housing Market crash happened in 1997 due to overbuilding, Thailand has a severe deflationary period similar to what China is facing today. Most Western FMCGs in ASEAN are also manufactured in Thailand and don't have a luxury tax (0% in Thailand versus 30-40% in China), which has helped keep prices low. This and the large Chinese Thai community is why Thailand became a popular tourist destination for middle class Chinese before COVID [0] - https://www.nso.go.th/nsoweb/storage/survey_detail/2023/20231018103954_32528.pdf https://www.nso.go.th/nsoweb/storage/survey_detail/2023/2023...

maxglute 3y ago
Going back 10 years of data fromt travel.state, PRC B visa refusal rate looks 2-5% lower than Thailand precovid. Now it's ~2-5% higher, but that's more likely due to geopolitics, not average Thai who can travel suddenly becoming richer than average PRC who can travel. Especially considering US/PRC flights still have restored to full capacity. SK/JP VISA free travel seems like a strange indicator to back up assertion, also more factor of geopolitics. I'm guessing average middle class PRC traveller is a larger spender than average thai traveller, especially to SK/JP. Unless the assertion that without VISA there'd be more low income travellers from PRC, but that's something airline supply/demand will filter out. Eitherway, housing price makes some sense, but this data still feels off, considering PRC is at 65% urbanization vs Thai 50%, and neither urban nor rural thai measures up to urban or rural PRC from my travels.
- alephnerd 3y ago
  > Going back 10 years of data fromt travel.state, PRC B visa refusal rate looks 2-5% lower than Thailand precovid In 2022, 22% of Chinese B1/2 applicants overstayed in the US versus 8% of Thai applicants [0]. That is a massive discrepancy, and hard to attribute for any other reason except economic. The primary factor to getting a B1/2 visa is proof that you will not overstay in the US or become a Ward of State > SK/JP VISA free travel seems like a strange indicator to back up assertion Because SK and JP grant tourist visas based on overstay risks and proof of income as well. That's why much poorer Vietnam doesn't have visa free travel to JP or SK despite having extremely permissive FTAs with both countries. > without VISA there'd be more low income travellers from PRC, but that's something airline supply/demand will filter out Or, you know, visa free status and overstay rates by country. > Eitherway, housing price makes some sense, but this data still feels off, considering PRC is at 65% urbanization vs Thai 50%, and neither urban nor rural thai measures up to urban or rural PRC from my travels. Well, firstly, Chinese urbanization rates seem to be miscounted upwards, as Tsinghua noted [1] for 2019 and earlier data. The Chinese numbers are closer to 50-55%. Secondly, rural and urban incomes are starkly different in Thailand versus China, as both countries government released statistics have shown, and even Thailand's National and Local HDI statistics have proven. There's no way around it, the average Thai (who lives a rural or semi-rural life) has a better quality of life than the average Chinese person (who also lives a rural or semi-rural life) [0] - https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2023-07/23_0707_FY22_FY23_CBP_Integrated_Entry_Exit_Overstay_Report.pdf https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2023-07/23_0707_FY22... [1] - https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/CPE-10-2019-0018/full/html https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/CPE-10-2...
  - maxglute 3y ago
    2018 overstay B1/2 PRC ~0.8% Thailand ~2% PRC overstays in other tables also lower, frequently substantially. Maybe geopolitics changed between US/PRC since 2018? https://cis.org/sites/default/files/2020-01/19_0417_fy18-entry-and-exit-overstay-report.pdf https://cis.org/sites/default/files/2020-01/19_0417_fy18-ent... You're a well read guy, but I find some of your use of data in this thread to be a little confusing. E: Tsinghua study is about reclassifying based on household registeration, rural registered working in urban does not have access to urban level of social support, so less people should be considered urban even though they contribute to urban agglomeration effects. Which is what we think about when we measure urbanization. But it's not about whether rural PRC has less QoL than rural thai. Which sure, household income and HDI measures as proxy. But then tack on all the redistribution mechanisms, i.e. social transfers in kind where state subsidizes take home income and see it in practice and I find it difficult to believe (from what I see travelling both places, granted anedotal) average Thai has better QoL on when PRC per is 80% larger and per capita accounts for redistributed resources that supplements disposable income.