4 ms·

basically everything I read about the USA housing market seems so weird, especially in SF/Silicon Valley. They makret themselves as being this "tech area" yet t

by pwb25 3y ago

basically everything I read about the USA housing market seems so weird, especially in SF/Silicon Valley. They makret themselves as being this "tech area" yet they have 100 year old houses with limits of 2 floors. or big suburbs without anything in them. Where is the uber, airbnb and doordash for housing?

tomrod 3y ago
Sued out of existence for ignoring licensing laws during startup, I'd reckon. Or, contractors. I get the feeling residential building doesn't scale well outside of monopolistic competition, partially from red tape, partially from supply constraints/supplier network monopsonies.
- pwb25 3y ago
  I mean they could try to talk to politicians and NIMBYs but it seems like many programmers in silicon valley enjoy their wooden walls houses with no shops or bars around them just because they go up in value
  - lex-lightning 3y ago
    Your assessment of the problem is accurate but persuasion so far has proven intractable. I live in Portland. I’ve been cornered for my opinion on urbanization, so I’ll give it. But at least here, many people have black and white opinions. Either you don’t care about the environment or you don‘t care about displacement. This is why we needed the Green New Deal or Build Back Better. Urbanize, but increase social safety nets, provide rent control… I don’t claim to know which levers to pull, but we definitely need to pull more than one at once to meet the goals of increasing density without driving people out of their own neighborhoods. But doesn’t it seem strange that increasing density would increase displacement? The US has a lot of political barriers to things like the Green New Deal. So when areas are urbanized, those against urbanization can point to the flawed execution and they certainly have a point. That said, I’d love to see the Green New Deal return.
- bluGill 3y ago
  Single family homes are easy to build. I could build one myself - just myself in about a year (worked on a framing crew and have done every part of building a house). With access to experienced subcontractors (plumbers, concrete...) a house can be built by "one man" in just over 100 days, and banks will even give construction loans to someone wanting to attempt this - most inexperienced people can create enough of a plan to convince a banker that in less than one year they will have a house more valuable than the costs and so they will then get a regular mortgage on it. However apartments because of size quickly get to the point where you cannot build them without already having experience. Banks know that the details are just enough more complex than a small house that they won't risk a loan on someone without experience. Which opens the question: how do you get experience without experience?
pc86 3y ago
> Where is the...airbnb...for housing? Nobody tell him.
- pwb25 3y ago
  airbnb creates 0 new houses from what I know, so don't get your smug comment
  - basil-rash 3y ago
    None of those platforms build anything. Just lease out stuff people already constructed the infrastructure for. That’s what makes them scale, but it tienta translate to anything where you need massive per-transaction capital.
    - pwb25 3y ago
      correct, i mean as in thinking new and disrupt the market. I stil don't get what you try to "gotcha" me with?
      - DANmode 3y ago
        AirBnb takes homes out of the housing market for people who want to buy a home to live in it, not turn it into a motel.
        pwb25 3y ago
        yes, that's a big problem. but also where is the airbnb founder, that was literally founded in SV area, talking about technology focused cities? hypocritical mindset
just_1_comment 3y ago
> Where is the uber, airbnb and doordash for housing? Outside of SF and Silicon Valley.
- pwb25 3y ago
  which is quite ironic, all those "new tech" people hate new tech in their own areas
  - yonran 3y ago
    > all those "new tech" people hate new tech in their own areas Unfortunately, the recent generation of tech workers have not been represented in local politics. As far as I know, none of the supervisors or mayors in recent memory in San Francisco have worked in technology; they typically come from nonprofits, unions, or just landed gentry. It is not young tech workers who refuse to rezone and amend the building code for affordability, it is older homeowners and nonprofit special interests. The Board of Supervisors (the city council) has been rather hostile to tech for the past decade or more.
    - pwb25 3y ago
      sure, but it's not like their use their money and influence to protest either. where are tim cook or mark zuckerberg saying we need 50 floor houses like in hong kong and singapore in silicon valley? but at the same time, they spend billions on metaverse stuff no one wants
      - yonran 3y ago
        A few wealthy people try to get involved, but there is a strong segment of the electorate and press who are extremely skeptical of wealth (other than their own house). Ron Conway has been portrayed as a boogeyman for many years for his contributions to candidates (https://48hills.org/tag/ron-conway/ https://48hills.org/tag/ron-conway/). Yelp founder Jeremy Stoppelman has been making donations in favor of relaxing zoning. I think it just takes a long time to convince voters that housing supply is an important issue when they are insulated from the housing market due to rent control, benefit from unaffordability because they own real estate, or have read too much misinformation from the “progressive” press who deny that supply affects rent.
flockonus 3y ago
Such types of startups can come into play on grey areas. If residential zoning code happens to be black'n'white (usually), startups don't get to play dumb. This is an issue of zoning, therefore local politics, which is complex, specially in DF
throwway120385 3y ago
Real Estate is a weird thing, because literally every lot is different. If you pick two lots of the same square footage and compare them, even in the same neighborhood or even with adjacent lot lines, things like soil conditions and presence or absence of subsurface water can dramatically change the cost of construction or make your lot totally unbuildable. Buildings are living things that are constantly being changed by their owners too. After 10 years of their being lived in no two cookie-cutter houses will be the same either. The reason what you want doesn't exist is because it's impossible to scale using technology without rendering these differences moot. The construction industry is doing the best it can by clearcutting every lot and bulldozing the surface features into a set of flat terraced lots and then building houses on that infill. The only thing SV could contribute is capital.
- nojvek 3y ago
  My biggest lesson after visiting SV multiple times is that the companies are super forward thinking when it comes to software. But the city council is pretty incompetent. It is a govt monopoly with no real incentive to be competent. The zoning laws don’t allow building multi story apartments. The city council drags their feet for years to approve building permits. People literally shit on the road. Crime is rampant. You’d be driving on the road, glass is smashed and someone takes your bag. Trains don’t run on time. Some stink. You could spend a million and barely get a shack for a house. Go to any of the modern Asian or European cities and there is a stark difference. They’re clean, trains run on time, they’re fast, low crime, little homelessness. California governance is corrupt and incompetent. They earn the most from taxes compared to any other state. This is not a money problem. It is a “things are shit because we want them to stay that way.” problem.
aranchelk 3y ago
If you're trying to understand the US housing market, do yourself a favor and don't start with the SF Bay Area - it's so twisted into political and ideological knots that the local branch of the Sierra Club fought against eco-friendly (i.e. relatively dense) housing, ostensibly to save a parking garage.
- pwb25 3y ago
  I took that because its the most difference between trying to act as modern and tech focused and being the total opposite. I mean they dont even have 24/7 public transport or trains

by pwb25 3y ago

tomrod 3y ago

Sued out of existence for ignoring licensing laws during startup, I'd reckon. Or, contractors. I get the feeling residential building doesn't scale well outside of monopolistic competition, partially from red tape, partially from supply constraints/supplier network monopsonies.

pwb25 3y ago
I mean they could try to talk to politicians and NIMBYs but it seems like many programmers in silicon valley enjoy their wooden walls houses with no shops or bars around them just because they go up in value
- lex-lightning 3y ago
  Your assessment of the problem is accurate but persuasion so far has proven intractable. I live in Portland. I’ve been cornered for my opinion on urbanization, so I’ll give it. But at least here, many people have black and white opinions. Either you don’t care about the environment or you don‘t care about displacement. This is why we needed the Green New Deal or Build Back Better. Urbanize, but increase social safety nets, provide rent control… I don’t claim to know which levers to pull, but we definitely need to pull more than one at once to meet the goals of increasing density without driving people out of their own neighborhoods. But doesn’t it seem strange that increasing density would increase displacement? The US has a lot of political barriers to things like the Green New Deal. So when areas are urbanized, those against urbanization can point to the flawed execution and they certainly have a point. That said, I’d love to see the Green New Deal return.
bluGill 3y ago
Single family homes are easy to build. I could build one myself - just myself in about a year (worked on a framing crew and have done every part of building a house). With access to experienced subcontractors (plumbers, concrete...) a house can be built by "one man" in just over 100 days, and banks will even give construction loans to someone wanting to attempt this - most inexperienced people can create enough of a plan to convince a banker that in less than one year they will have a house more valuable than the costs and so they will then get a regular mortgage on it. However apartments because of size quickly get to the point where you cannot build them without already having experience. Banks know that the details are just enough more complex than a small house that they won't risk a loan on someone without experience. Which opens the question: how do you get experience without experience?

pc86 3y ago

> Where is the...airbnb...for housing? Nobody tell him.

pwb25 3y ago
airbnb creates 0 new houses from what I know, so don't get your smug comment
- basil-rash 3y ago
  None of those platforms build anything. Just lease out stuff people already constructed the infrastructure for. That’s what makes them scale, but it tienta translate to anything where you need massive per-transaction capital.
  - pwb25 3y ago
    correct, i mean as in thinking new and disrupt the market. I stil don't get what you try to "gotcha" me with?
    - DANmode 3y ago
      AirBnb takes homes out of the housing market for people who want to buy a home to live in it, not turn it into a motel.
      - pwb25 3y ago
        yes, that's a big problem. but also where is the airbnb founder, that was literally founded in SV area, talking about technology focused cities? hypocritical mindset

just_1_comment 3y ago

> Where is the uber, airbnb and doordash for housing? Outside of SF and Silicon Valley.

pwb25 3y ago
which is quite ironic, all those "new tech" people hate new tech in their own areas
- yonran 3y ago
  > all those "new tech" people hate new tech in their own areas Unfortunately, the recent generation of tech workers have not been represented in local politics. As far as I know, none of the supervisors or mayors in recent memory in San Francisco have worked in technology; they typically come from nonprofits, unions, or just landed gentry. It is not young tech workers who refuse to rezone and amend the building code for affordability, it is older homeowners and nonprofit special interests. The Board of Supervisors (the city council) has been rather hostile to tech for the past decade or more.
  - pwb25 3y ago
    sure, but it's not like their use their money and influence to protest either. where are tim cook or mark zuckerberg saying we need 50 floor houses like in hong kong and singapore in silicon valley? but at the same time, they spend billions on metaverse stuff no one wants
    - yonran 3y ago
      A few wealthy people try to get involved, but there is a strong segment of the electorate and press who are extremely skeptical of wealth (other than their own house). Ron Conway has been portrayed as a boogeyman for many years for his contributions to candidates (https://48hills.org/tag/ron-conway/ https://48hills.org/tag/ron-conway/). Yelp founder Jeremy Stoppelman has been making donations in favor of relaxing zoning. I think it just takes a long time to convince voters that housing supply is an important issue when they are insulated from the housing market due to rent control, benefit from unaffordability because they own real estate, or have read too much misinformation from the “progressive” press who deny that supply affects rent.

flockonus 3y ago

Such types of startups can come into play on grey areas. If residential zoning code happens to be black'n'white (usually), startups don't get to play dumb. This is an issue of zoning, therefore local politics, which is complex, specially in DF

throwway120385 3y ago

Real Estate is a weird thing, because literally every lot is different. If you pick two lots of the same square footage and compare them, even in the same neighborhood or even with adjacent lot lines, things like soil conditions and presence or absence of subsurface water can dramatically change the cost of construction or make your lot totally unbuildable. Buildings are living things that are constantly being changed by their owners too. After 10 years of their being lived in no two cookie-cutter houses will be the same either. The reason what you want doesn't exist is because it's impossible to scale using technology without rendering these differences moot. The construction industry is doing the best it can by clearcutting every lot and bulldozing the surface features into a set of flat terraced lots and then building houses on that infill. The only thing SV could contribute is capital.

nojvek 3y ago
My biggest lesson after visiting SV multiple times is that the companies are super forward thinking when it comes to software. But the city council is pretty incompetent. It is a govt monopoly with no real incentive to be competent. The zoning laws don’t allow building multi story apartments. The city council drags their feet for years to approve building permits. People literally shit on the road. Crime is rampant. You’d be driving on the road, glass is smashed and someone takes your bag. Trains don’t run on time. Some stink. You could spend a million and barely get a shack for a house. Go to any of the modern Asian or European cities and there is a stark difference. They’re clean, trains run on time, they’re fast, low crime, little homelessness. California governance is corrupt and incompetent. They earn the most from taxes compared to any other state. This is not a money problem. It is a “things are shit because we want them to stay that way.” problem.

aranchelk 3y ago

If you're trying to understand the US housing market, do yourself a favor and don't start with the SF Bay Area - it's so twisted into political and ideological knots that the local branch of the Sierra Club fought against eco-friendly (i.e. relatively dense) housing, ostensibly to save a parking garage.

pwb25 3y ago
I took that because its the most difference between trying to act as modern and tech focused and being the total opposite. I mean they dont even have 24/7 public transport or trains