4 ms·

> China's median income in the 2020s is still 33-50% that of Thailand's, Mexico's, Poland's, and Turkiye's in the 2020s and these countries are still in the pro

by eunos 3y ago

> China's median income in the 2020s is still 33-50% that of Thailand's, Mexico's, Poland's, and Turkiye's in the 2020s and these countries are still in the process of democratizing Uhh no https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/annual-household-income-per-capita https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/annual-househ... Regarding "democratization" I'd say again that the most effective killers of Chinese democracy movement are Pompeo and Trump.

alephnerd 3y ago
CEIC's data is incorrect. LET ME REPEAT. CIEC has data transformation issues. The median household income in Thailand is around $7,000 [0] versus around $4,000 [1] in China - both are government provided statistics. > Regarding "democratization" I'd say again that the most effective killers of Chinese democracy movement are Pompeo and Trump In a way, but more so the economic stagnation and massive inequality towards the end of the Hu Jintao era as the Bo Xilai scandal proved. [0] - http://statbbi.nso.go.th/staticreport/page/sector/th/08.aspx http://statbbi.nso.go.th/staticreport/page/sector/th/08.aspx [1] - https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202201/t20220118_1826649.html https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202201/t202201...
- eunos 3y ago
  If you read the link from Chinese govt statistic it says that it is DISPOSABLE. "In 2021, the per capita disposable income of residents in China reached 35,128 yuan, a nominal increase of 9.1 percent over the previous year".
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    If you read Thai it's disposable as well [0]. There are so many data transformation problems on CEIC that I don't trust it. For example with Malaysia and Latvia This is why I equally distrust Statisa for similar reasons. Use primary sources instead of secondary sources as they say. [0] - https://www.nso.go.th/nsoweb/storage/survey_detail/2023/20231018103954_32528.pdf https://www.nso.go.th/nsoweb/storage/survey_detail/2023/2023...
- Aunche 3y ago
  I don't read Thai, but both Google and ChatGPT translate รายได้โดยเฉลี่ยต่อเดือนต่อครัวเรือน รายจังหวัด พ.ศ. as "average monthly household income" rather than median. I find it rather difficult to believe that median incomes are Thailand because prices seem lower in Bangkok than even a tier 3 city in China.
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    Thai to English translation via Google Translate is utter trash for some reason, but here's the Disposable Income stats the Thai Govt provided [0] and matches the data I provided above. Also, Thai B1/2 refusal rates are significantly lower than Chinese B1/2 rates (B1/2 is largely judged based on economic capacity) and Thailand doesn't even have an exit pass requirement. Also, Thai citizens can travel to SK and JP visa free but Chinese can't, which further proves the point. > prices seem lower in Bangkok than even a tier 3 city in China Because of housing. After the Housing Market crash happened in 1997 due to overbuilding, Thailand has a severe deflationary period similar to what China is facing today. Most Western FMCGs in ASEAN are also manufactured in Thailand and don't have a luxury tax (0% in Thailand versus 30-40% in China), which has helped keep prices low. This and the large Chinese Thai community is why Thailand became a popular tourist destination for middle class Chinese before COVID [0] - https://www.nso.go.th/nsoweb/storage/survey_detail/2023/20231018103954_32528.pdf https://www.nso.go.th/nsoweb/storage/survey_detail/2023/2023...
    - maxglute 3y ago
      Going back 10 years of data fromt travel.state, PRC B visa refusal rate looks 2-5% lower than Thailand precovid. Now it's ~2-5% higher, but that's more likely due to geopolitics, not average Thai who can travel suddenly becoming richer than average PRC who can travel. Especially considering US/PRC flights still have restored to full capacity. SK/JP VISA free travel seems like a strange indicator to back up assertion, also more factor of geopolitics. I'm guessing average middle class PRC traveller is a larger spender than average thai traveller, especially to SK/JP. Unless the assertion that without VISA there'd be more low income travellers from PRC, but that's something airline supply/demand will filter out. Eitherway, housing price makes some sense, but this data still feels off, considering PRC is at 65% urbanization vs Thai 50%, and neither urban nor rural thai measures up to urban or rural PRC from my travels.
some_random 3y ago
So in 1989 there was this event called the Tiananmen Square massacre where an unknown number (probably in the thousands) of pro-democracy student protesters were killed by the PLA. This is what really kicked off the modern anti-democratic political repression in China. To the best of my knowledge neither Pompeo nor Trump were involved, but I guess you never know!

by eunos 3y ago

alephnerd 3y ago

CEIC's data is incorrect. LET ME REPEAT. CIEC has data transformation issues. The median household income in Thailand is around $7,000 [0] versus around $4,000 [1] in China - both are government provided statistics. > Regarding "democratization" I'd say again that the most effective killers of Chinese democracy movement are Pompeo and Trump In a way, but more so the economic stagnation and massive inequality towards the end of the Hu Jintao era as the Bo Xilai scandal proved. [0] - http://statbbi.nso.go.th/staticreport/page/sector/th/08.aspx http://statbbi.nso.go.th/staticreport/page/sector/th/08.aspx [1] - https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202201/t20220118_1826649.html https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202201/t202201...

eunos 3y ago
If you read the link from Chinese govt statistic it says that it is DISPOSABLE. "In 2021, the per capita disposable income of residents in China reached 35,128 yuan, a nominal increase of 9.1 percent over the previous year".
- alephnerd 3y ago
  If you read Thai it's disposable as well [0]. There are so many data transformation problems on CEIC that I don't trust it. For example with Malaysia and Latvia This is why I equally distrust Statisa for similar reasons. Use primary sources instead of secondary sources as they say. [0] - https://www.nso.go.th/nsoweb/storage/survey_detail/2023/20231018103954_32528.pdf https://www.nso.go.th/nsoweb/storage/survey_detail/2023/2023...
Aunche 3y ago
I don't read Thai, but both Google and ChatGPT translate รายได้โดยเฉลี่ยต่อเดือนต่อครัวเรือน รายจังหวัด พ.ศ. as "average monthly household income" rather than median. I find it rather difficult to believe that median incomes are Thailand because prices seem lower in Bangkok than even a tier 3 city in China.
- alephnerd 3y ago
  Thai to English translation via Google Translate is utter trash for some reason, but here's the Disposable Income stats the Thai Govt provided [0] and matches the data I provided above. Also, Thai B1/2 refusal rates are significantly lower than Chinese B1/2 rates (B1/2 is largely judged based on economic capacity) and Thailand doesn't even have an exit pass requirement. Also, Thai citizens can travel to SK and JP visa free but Chinese can't, which further proves the point. > prices seem lower in Bangkok than even a tier 3 city in China Because of housing. After the Housing Market crash happened in 1997 due to overbuilding, Thailand has a severe deflationary period similar to what China is facing today. Most Western FMCGs in ASEAN are also manufactured in Thailand and don't have a luxury tax (0% in Thailand versus 30-40% in China), which has helped keep prices low. This and the large Chinese Thai community is why Thailand became a popular tourist destination for middle class Chinese before COVID [0] - https://www.nso.go.th/nsoweb/storage/survey_detail/2023/20231018103954_32528.pdf https://www.nso.go.th/nsoweb/storage/survey_detail/2023/2023...
  - maxglute 3y ago
    Going back 10 years of data fromt travel.state, PRC B visa refusal rate looks 2-5% lower than Thailand precovid. Now it's ~2-5% higher, but that's more likely due to geopolitics, not average Thai who can travel suddenly becoming richer than average PRC who can travel. Especially considering US/PRC flights still have restored to full capacity. SK/JP VISA free travel seems like a strange indicator to back up assertion, also more factor of geopolitics. I'm guessing average middle class PRC traveller is a larger spender than average thai traveller, especially to SK/JP. Unless the assertion that without VISA there'd be more low income travellers from PRC, but that's something airline supply/demand will filter out. Eitherway, housing price makes some sense, but this data still feels off, considering PRC is at 65% urbanization vs Thai 50%, and neither urban nor rural thai measures up to urban or rural PRC from my travels.

some_random 3y ago

So in 1989 there was this event called the Tiananmen Square massacre where an unknown number (probably in the thousands) of pro-democracy student protesters were killed by the PLA. This is what really kicked off the modern anti-democratic political repression in China. To the best of my knowledge neither Pompeo nor Trump were involved, but I guess you never know!