4 ms·
Thanks for pointing out that the amount of power consumed is speculative and "up to" - it's reported as a fact in the headlines everywhere. We can get a reason
by tgsovlerkhgsel 3y ago
Thanks for pointing out that the amount of power consumed is speculative and "up to" - it's reported as a fact in the headlines everywhere.
We can get a reasonable upper bound: the block reward is 6.25 BTC + fees (the blocks I saw tended to have around 0.5 BTC in fees), so let's be generous and say 7 BTC per block. 144 blocks per day are 52560 blocks or 368k BTC per year. Currently, they're worth 47k each, so $17.3B/year.
The 91 TWh figure (from https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61364 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61364) seems derived directly from a 240 TWh global power consumption multiplied by the assumed % of mining happening in the US, so since we're using global revenue, it only makes sense to use the global number, 240 TWh = 240e9 kWh.
17.3e9 USD / 240e9 kWh => 7.2 ct/kWh
That's the absolute maximum that electricity could cost in order for mining to be profitable.
That's making some very generous assumptions - I used the current price (annual high!) instead of the much lower average over the past months or year, and it completely ignores the very significant cost of the mining hardware. But given that 7.2 ct/kWh is roughly what industrial electricity costs in the US, and miners might be able to get power cheaper (since they can be more flexible than e.g. an aluminium plant that would suffer expensive damage if power is cut unexpectedly), it's not an entirely unreasonable number for an upper bound.
Getting accurate numbers through mandatory reporting isn't the worst idea, if only to prevent such bullshit headlines.
- pcthrowaway 3y agoIt's an "estimate" but if the mining operations of these 137 miners have known addresses (which I assume they have to for compliance), it's going to be accurate within 20%. The block reward is irrelevant, we just need to look at the hashrate of the network Basically, take the overall hashrate of the entire network which is determined from the block difficulty (this fluctuates and was likely higher when bitcoin was more valuable, though not necessarily), and assume all blocks are mined by operators running state of the art mining hardware (realistically 90-98% of blocks will be mined by people running hardware that's 80-100% of the maximum possible efficiency, and any miners running worse hardware will be consuming more energy, but we can pretend they're all on the best hardware) Using that, you can get the overall hashrate of the network. Once you have that, you can take the percentage of blocks mined by these 137 miners in a year. Again, be generous and assume they're all running state of the art hardware. If 10% of all blocks are mined by these 137 mining ops, guess what, they're using 10% of the total energy being inhaled by the network.