3 ms·

You might want to read about the rebound effect. If your toaster is 10% more efficient but you have twice as many toasters in the world you're still fucked, thi

You might want to read about the rebound effect. If your toaster is 10% more efficient but you have twice as many toasters in the world you're still fucked, this is what we're doing right now. This new faith in technology as the great redeemer is closer to religion than science. At best it's wishful thinking at worst it's delusional

boxed 3y ago
Yea, except if the toasters get a million times more efficient people won't in fact run ten toasters per person around the clock to make the rebound effect possible. This is the type of gains LEDs have made. I've seen left leaning people make claims like LEDs just mean people have their lights on more so the total consumption goes up. But that's absolutely not true, because LEDs are so much more important that if everyone kept all their lights on in their house 24/7 and also bought 5 times more light bulbs they STILL would use less electricity. That's why the specific example given was such an own goal. If the tech is good enough it can't be overcome by the rebound effect.
- lm28469 3y ago
  > If the tech is good enough it can't be overcome by the rebound effect. Yeah: ifs, whens, maybes and "trust me bro"s On one side you have wishful thinking and on the other-side you have 200 years of technological progress that brought literally everything besides an energy or pollution reduction The entire history of technological progress is a rebound effect, if it wasn't we wouldn't be talking about it here and now.. so yes you're free to believe that in some hypothetical future the trend will automagically invert itself, but it isn't backed by anything at all. > people won't in fact run ten toasters per person around the clock to make the rebound effect possible. Asia + Africa's population will double by 2050, and they pollute way less than the average westerner by capita. Do you think they won't want their part of the cake ?

boxed 3y ago

Yea, except if the toasters get a million times more efficient people won't in fact run ten toasters per person around the clock to make the rebound effect possible. This is the type of gains LEDs have made. I've seen left leaning people make claims like LEDs just mean people have their lights on more so the total consumption goes up. But that's absolutely not true, because LEDs are so much more important that if everyone kept all their lights on in their house 24/7 and also bought 5 times more light bulbs they STILL would use less electricity. That's why the specific example given was such an own goal. If the tech is good enough it can't be overcome by the rebound effect.

lm28469 3y ago
> If the tech is good enough it can't be overcome by the rebound effect. Yeah: ifs, whens, maybes and "trust me bro"s On one side you have wishful thinking and on the other-side you have 200 years of technological progress that brought literally everything besides an energy or pollution reduction The entire history of technological progress is a rebound effect, if it wasn't we wouldn't be talking about it here and now.. so yes you're free to believe that in some hypothetical future the trend will automagically invert itself, but it isn't backed by anything at all. > people won't in fact run ten toasters per person around the clock to make the rebound effect possible. Asia + Africa's population will double by 2050, and they pollute way less than the average westerner by capita. Do you think they won't want their part of the cake ?