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Exactly. Present success means the ability to forecast what’s needed for future success — see the Pierce-Arrow Motor Car Company and their dominance in the mark
by jrflowers 3y ago
Exactly. Present success means the ability to forecast what’s needed for future success — see the Pierce-Arrow Motor Car Company and their dominance in the market to this very day
- financypants 3y agoThis person is not saying success -> more success. I think they’re just pointing out that Altman is smart and is surrounded by smart people and a company that understands the demand because they make up the majority of the demand (and they have a strong thesis).
- startupsfail 3y agoIs he raising for OpenAI or for another venture? If he is using deep knowledge from OpenAI to raise money for another venture, this sounds wrong.
- Atotalnoob 3y agoHe is rich and powerful, of course it isn’t wrong /s
- startupsfail 3y agoOr broke and powerful? Because of spending a fortune on WorldCoin, working at a nonprofit and heavily investing into early AI startups?
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- aorloff 3y agoNo way OpenAI makes up even a plurality of chip demand
- financypants 3y agoPerhaps. I have no idea and am not purporting to know.
- latency-guy2 3y agoOpenAI not itself, but Microsoft is. For 2022 and 2023, Microsoft bought a significant portion of NVIDIA's available hardware. They spent quite a bit of 2023 trying to figure out how to even power the multiple fleets of GPUs. Just now with the mild to expected wild adoption of Azure OpenAI are they getting around to servicing all their (potential) customers.
- ffsm8 3y ago[citation needed] Seriously, this is am outlandish claim just from looking at Microsoft and Nvidias market cap. I am sure that Microsoft is gonna be one of Nvidias largest customers, but I sincerely doubt it's even a double digit percentage of their revenue.
- latency-guy2 3y agoAll of this is public information, its estimated Microsoft bought ~150k H100s from old reports, we also know today that Meta actually bought 500k units To reach double digit revenue of NVIDIA's 2023 at $26.97 billion, you'd only need to hit ~$2.7B in sales. H100's are priced anywhere between $20k - $35k, so required to purchase ~77k - ~135k units. That is singularly H100s, Microsoft also offers lower compute, and they have the rest of Azure to service with a variety of solutions. Being at #1 or #2 market cap worldwide is not a farfetched position to be a significant controller of chips, especially since they directly work in the space as a platform.
- verdverm 3y agoThis ignores Google's in house chips and their internal usage. They've been at this much longer. I doubt we have the visibility to know how they compare in terms of available flops and the unit costs
- highfrequency 3y agoCan you elaborate on this? Per ChatGPT: > Using Pierce-Arrow Motor Car Company as an example of such success is historically inaccurate. Pierce-Arrow was an American automobile manufacturer based in Buffalo, New York, which was known for producing luxury cars. It was indeed a dominant and prestigious brand in the early 20th century. However, the company did not manage to maintain its success and ultimately failed to adapt to changing market conditions. It faced financial difficulties during the Great Depression and eventually went bankrupt in 1938. Pierce-Arrow's inability to forecast and adapt to the economic changes and shifts in consumer preferences of the time led to its decline.
- heromal 3y agoFrom the very answer ChatGPT gave you, it's evident that GP is saying that current success does not imply future success, using that company as an example. What needs elaboration?
- highfrequency 3y agoIt's pretty clear he is trying to make the opposite point, see "dominance in this market to this very day"