4 ms·

Well, one of those two countries has a no-first-use nuclear doctrine, so I imagine there's a probability conditional there.

082349872349872 3y ago
TIL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_first_use#Countries_against_no-first-use_policy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_first_use#Countries_against...
RetpolineDrama 3y ago
Russia has a lot of unacknowledged "lost" soviet-era nukes that are actually still in its control. I could see them detonating one in India/Pakistan as a false flag to try and kick off a broader exchange to distract the West from Ukraine.
- seatac76 3y ago
  What an insane conspiracy. They already invaded Ukraine what more distraction could they need.
  - RetpolineDrama 3y ago
    >What an insane conspiracy Is english your second language? Conspiracy is not an accurate term for that, we are discussing hypothetical geopolitical strategy not something that might have happened. >They already invaded Ukraine what more distraction could they need. Please re-read my comment again, the context is obviously completely lost on you. The ukraine debacle is precisely what russia wants to distract _from_. Kicking off another major geopolitical crisis (tiawan invasion, india/pakistan exchange, war in gaza) are all things that would/are benefiting russia as it splits western focus. And since you're so keyed in on the "conspiracy" word, I think it might surprise you to learn the the russian government/FSB is actively _conspiring_ to win their war in ukraine, just as ukraine is conspiring to not lose.
  - DANmode 3y ago
    You mean "conspiracy theory".
vbezhenar 3y ago
Doctrine is just a paper. It's not even constitution. It could be changed in a minute if necessary (or even post-factum or some sketchy justifications could be made up). It surprises me sometimes, how much value people put in some documents, disregarding those who can change or ignore those documents.
- renewiltord 3y ago
  Everything is just paper or words. The constitution? Words. Only power is power. Only shackles constrain. Even computer code is just code. But in my experience, documents count for something because of the result of violating the documents. If your experience is that nothing you've said or written holds water, then so be it. We will see, in time, whose approach leads whom to a better life.
  - hackerlight 3y ago
    The constitution holds power because the judiciary is independent from the executive and congress. This friendly adversarial tension creates belief in the constitution (similar to social belief in currency) which makes it harder to dislodge. That goes out the window in a dictatorship. It becomes more about the self interest of one person, and if the piece of paper is against that then they'll throw it out.
    - renewiltord 3y ago
      It's just words. If the President marched the army into the court, the judiciary would capitulate. Books won't protect them.
    - foragerdev 3y ago
      Not in Pakistan. Pakistan has had 40 years of direct marshal laws, 35 years of indirect marshal laws since 1947. Pakistan Army operate a state within the state. Where what constitution says matters less than what an army chief says. They control the judiciary by blackmailing them by their corruption charges or recording them necked, whom they can't control are forced to resign, who do not comply to pressure they storm the courts with the militant wings. They change sentiments and spread fear but using them for a suicide attack. But this time, things changed. Public get to know what has been happening to their country since last 75 years.
zaphirplane 3y ago
Would the country with a no first use happen to be the country with a prime minister and governors that encourage killing of their own country men with a different religion. Color me skeptical
alephnerd 3y ago
> one of those two countries has a no-first-use nuclear doctrine They're thinking about doing away with it in India due to the China factor (though politicians will always say it's because of Pakistan) [0][1]. It's kind of scary tbh. China expands it's arsenal to compete with the US. India gets scared and starts expanding it's arsenal in turn. Pakistan gets scared and they start expanding their arsenal as well. And this has caused all 3 countries to enter an arms race that is not going to slowdown anytime soon. It's already having a destabilizing effect in Myanmar, Bangladesh, Maldives, Nepal, Afghanistan, Eastern Africa, etc [0] - https://www.orfonline.org/research/nuclear-rethink-a-change-in-indias-nuclear-doctrine-has-implications-on-cost-war-strategy-54557 https://www.orfonline.org/research/nuclear-rethink-a-change-... [1] - https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-s-no-first-use-nuclear-policy-may-change-rajnath-singh-1565946292515.html https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-s-no-first-use-nuc...

082349872349872 3y ago

TIL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_first_use#Countries_against_no-first-use_policy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_first_use#Countries_against...

RetpolineDrama 3y ago

Russia has a lot of unacknowledged "lost" soviet-era nukes that are actually still in its control. I could see them detonating one in India/Pakistan as a false flag to try and kick off a broader exchange to distract the West from Ukraine.

seatac76 3y ago
What an insane conspiracy. They already invaded Ukraine what more distraction could they need.
- RetpolineDrama 3y ago
  >What an insane conspiracy Is english your second language? Conspiracy is not an accurate term for that, we are discussing hypothetical geopolitical strategy not something that might have happened. >They already invaded Ukraine what more distraction could they need. Please re-read my comment again, the context is obviously completely lost on you. The ukraine debacle is precisely what russia wants to distract _from_. Kicking off another major geopolitical crisis (tiawan invasion, india/pakistan exchange, war in gaza) are all things that would/are benefiting russia as it splits western focus. And since you're so keyed in on the "conspiracy" word, I think it might surprise you to learn the the russian government/FSB is actively _conspiring_ to win their war in ukraine, just as ukraine is conspiring to not lose.
- DANmode 3y ago
  You mean "conspiracy theory".

vbezhenar 3y ago

Doctrine is just a paper. It's not even constitution. It could be changed in a minute if necessary (or even post-factum or some sketchy justifications could be made up). It surprises me sometimes, how much value people put in some documents, disregarding those who can change or ignore those documents.

renewiltord 3y ago
Everything is just paper or words. The constitution? Words. Only power is power. Only shackles constrain. Even computer code is just code. But in my experience, documents count for something because of the result of violating the documents. If your experience is that nothing you've said or written holds water, then so be it. We will see, in time, whose approach leads whom to a better life.
- hackerlight 3y ago
  The constitution holds power because the judiciary is independent from the executive and congress. This friendly adversarial tension creates belief in the constitution (similar to social belief in currency) which makes it harder to dislodge. That goes out the window in a dictatorship. It becomes more about the self interest of one person, and if the piece of paper is against that then they'll throw it out.
  - renewiltord 3y ago
    It's just words. If the President marched the army into the court, the judiciary would capitulate. Books won't protect them.
  - foragerdev 3y ago
    Not in Pakistan. Pakistan has had 40 years of direct marshal laws, 35 years of indirect marshal laws since 1947. Pakistan Army operate a state within the state. Where what constitution says matters less than what an army chief says. They control the judiciary by blackmailing them by their corruption charges or recording them necked, whom they can't control are forced to resign, who do not comply to pressure they storm the courts with the militant wings. They change sentiments and spread fear but using them for a suicide attack. But this time, things changed. Public get to know what has been happening to their country since last 75 years.

zaphirplane 3y ago

Would the country with a no first use happen to be the country with a prime minister and governors that encourage killing of their own country men with a different religion. Color me skeptical

alephnerd 3y ago

> one of those two countries has a no-first-use nuclear doctrine They're thinking about doing away with it in India due to the China factor (though politicians will always say it's because of Pakistan) [0][1]. It's kind of scary tbh. China expands it's arsenal to compete with the US. India gets scared and starts expanding it's arsenal in turn. Pakistan gets scared and they start expanding their arsenal as well. And this has caused all 3 countries to enter an arms race that is not going to slowdown anytime soon. It's already having a destabilizing effect in Myanmar, Bangladesh, Maldives, Nepal, Afghanistan, Eastern Africa, etc [0] - https://www.orfonline.org/research/nuclear-rethink-a-change-in-indias-nuclear-doctrine-has-implications-on-cost-war-strategy-54557 https://www.orfonline.org/research/nuclear-rethink-a-change-... [1] - https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-s-no-first-use-nuclear-policy-may-change-rajnath-singh-1565946292515.html https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-s-no-first-use-nuc...