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The craziest thing is that Pakistan has nuclear weapons. And not only that, the weapons are at the disposal of the local (very high ranking) commanders. It also

The craziest thing is that Pakistan has nuclear weapons. And not only that, the weapons are at the disposal of the local (very high ranking) commanders. It also is a country where the military is really in charge, only occasionally giving back the control to a civilian government. Sometimes people think that Eastern Europe is the most likely place to get nuked, or perhaps some American carrier off the coast of China. But in reality it's both Pakistan and India.

deleted 3y ago
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JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> in reality it's both Pakistan and India Pakistan’s top brass is anti-India. They’re also somewhat rational. If Pakistan’s nukes are launched, it’s because the zealots took control. At that point, I’m betting on Israel or even one of the Arab monarchies (if not Islamabad itself) [1]. [1] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cf/Shaheen-III-missile-range.svg/300px-Shaheen-III-missile-range.svg.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cf/Sh...
- rm_-rf_slash 3y ago
  >They’re also somewhat rational It only takes one generation to forget everything.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
- alephnerd 3y ago
  > Pakistan’s top brass is anti-India The top brass tried to negotiate a normalization of relations with India in 2019 at the behest of the UAE and Saudi. It was supposed to be a legacy making policy of the former Chief of Army Staff Bajwa [0] but was scuttled by Imran Khan [1] There is a bit of Qatar+Turkiye versus Saudi+UAE intrigue in this as well, as Imran Khan leaned pro-Qatar and helped them bypass the Saudi+UAE lead blockade on Qatar [2], which was a no-no for Saudi and the UAE. Imran Khan had a decent domestic policy, but his foreign policy was basically pissing everyone off - from Saudi to UAE to India to the USA - and was what lead to his demise. [0] - https://tribune.com.pk/story/2417903/gen-bajwas-india-peace-plan https://tribune.com.pk/story/2417903/gen-bajwas-india-peace-... [1] - https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/imran-khan-on-the-failed-india-pakistan-thaw-and-why-hes-prepared-for-everything-even-death/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/imran-... [2] - https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2018-06-11/how-qatar-weathered-gulf-crisis https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2018-06-...
renewiltord 3y ago
Well, one of those two countries has a no-first-use nuclear doctrine, so I imagine there's a probability conditional there.
- 082349872349872 3y ago
  TIL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_first_use#Countries_against_no-first-use_policy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_first_use#Countries_against...
- RetpolineDrama 3y ago
  Russia has a lot of unacknowledged "lost" soviet-era nukes that are actually still in its control. I could see them detonating one in India/Pakistan as a false flag to try and kick off a broader exchange to distract the West from Ukraine.
  - seatac76 3y ago
    What an insane conspiracy. They already invaded Ukraine what more distraction could they need.
    - RetpolineDrama 3y ago
      >What an insane conspiracy Is english your second language? Conspiracy is not an accurate term for that, we are discussing hypothetical geopolitical strategy not something that might have happened. >They already invaded Ukraine what more distraction could they need. Please re-read my comment again, the context is obviously completely lost on you. The ukraine debacle is precisely what russia wants to distract _from_. Kicking off another major geopolitical crisis (tiawan invasion, india/pakistan exchange, war in gaza) are all things that would/are benefiting russia as it splits western focus. And since you're so keyed in on the "conspiracy" word, I think it might surprise you to learn the the russian government/FSB is actively _conspiring_ to win their war in ukraine, just as ukraine is conspiring to not lose.
    - DANmode 3y ago
cedws 3y ago
This stuff is what keeps me awake at night. "No rational person would use nuclear weapons first" Well, who's to say that the people in charge of the nukes are rational? All it takes is one madman and we could have one of the biggest disasters in human history. We tend to underestimate the likelihood of such disasters and don't prepare for them (COVID is one example.) One day, someone will fire a nuclear weapon at civilians and we just have to hope it isn't in our lifetime. Nuke-wielding dictatorships are the scariest because they can eliminate the checks and balances in the way of a launch. If Putin falls ill tomorrow and thinks the Americans poisoned him, what's to say he won't nuke them as final revenge? What about Kim Jong Un? What about Xi Jinping?
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- DANmode 3y ago
  > One day, someone will fire a nuclear weapon at civilians and we just have to hope it isn't in our lifetime. Guessing you're not Japanese?
alephnerd 3y ago
> But in reality it's both Pakistan and India If you want to stay up at night - India, Pakistan, and China basically had a Cuban Missle Crisis level event in 2019-2020. India and Pakistan almost went to war in 2019 after the Pulwama attack [0] and then India and China were a trigger away from starting a war over the Galwan river [1]. [0] - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/25/india-pakistan-came-close-to-a-nuclear-war-in-2019-pompeo https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/25/india-pakistan-came... [1] - https://theprint.in/defence/nearing-breaking-point-gen-naravane-recalls-how-india-china-were-at-brink-of-war-in-aug-2020/1892648/ https://theprint.in/defence/nearing-breaking-point-gen-narav...
- philwelch 3y ago
  There are disputed border areas between India and China, and the two countries have had multiple skirmishes there, but to prevent any serious escalation, the two countries have mutually agreed not to use firearms, so they mostly fight with melee weapons. This is to avoid escalation.
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    > the two countries have mutually agreed not to use firearms The Border Peace and Tranquility Agreement from 1993 is over now after the intial clash on the confluence of Shyok and Galwan River, leaving casualties on both sides. Indian and Chinese soldiers now patrol armed again. After that initial clash, several additional clashes started, both India and China began mobilizing, and India considered launching artillery strikes on Chinese positions. Read the article - it's written by the General Naravane, who was commanding the Indian Army at the time.
    - philwelch 3y ago
      Oh no

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

> in reality it's both Pakistan and India Pakistan’s top brass is anti-India. They’re also somewhat rational. If Pakistan’s nukes are launched, it’s because the zealots took control. At that point, I’m betting on Israel or even one of the Arab monarchies (if not Islamabad itself) [1]. [1] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cf/Shaheen-III-missile-range.svg/300px-Shaheen-III-missile-range.svg.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cf/Sh...

rm_-rf_slash 3y ago
>They’re also somewhat rational It only takes one generation to forget everything.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
alephnerd 3y ago
> Pakistan’s top brass is anti-India The top brass tried to negotiate a normalization of relations with India in 2019 at the behest of the UAE and Saudi. It was supposed to be a legacy making policy of the former Chief of Army Staff Bajwa [0] but was scuttled by Imran Khan [1] There is a bit of Qatar+Turkiye versus Saudi+UAE intrigue in this as well, as Imran Khan leaned pro-Qatar and helped them bypass the Saudi+UAE lead blockade on Qatar [2], which was a no-no for Saudi and the UAE. Imran Khan had a decent domestic policy, but his foreign policy was basically pissing everyone off - from Saudi to UAE to India to the USA - and was what lead to his demise. [0] - https://tribune.com.pk/story/2417903/gen-bajwas-india-peace-plan https://tribune.com.pk/story/2417903/gen-bajwas-india-peace-... [1] - https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/imran-khan-on-the-failed-india-pakistan-thaw-and-why-hes-prepared-for-everything-even-death/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/imran-... [2] - https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2018-06-11/how-qatar-weathered-gulf-crisis https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2018-06-...

renewiltord 3y ago

Well, one of those two countries has a no-first-use nuclear doctrine, so I imagine there's a probability conditional there.

082349872349872 3y ago
TIL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_first_use#Countries_against_no-first-use_policy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_first_use#Countries_against...
RetpolineDrama 3y ago
Russia has a lot of unacknowledged "lost" soviet-era nukes that are actually still in its control. I could see them detonating one in India/Pakistan as a false flag to try and kick off a broader exchange to distract the West from Ukraine.
- seatac76 3y ago
  What an insane conspiracy. They already invaded Ukraine what more distraction could they need.
  - RetpolineDrama 3y ago
    >What an insane conspiracy Is english your second language? Conspiracy is not an accurate term for that, we are discussing hypothetical geopolitical strategy not something that might have happened. >They already invaded Ukraine what more distraction could they need. Please re-read my comment again, the context is obviously completely lost on you. The ukraine debacle is precisely what russia wants to distract _from_. Kicking off another major geopolitical crisis (tiawan invasion, india/pakistan exchange, war in gaza) are all things that would/are benefiting russia as it splits western focus. And since you're so keyed in on the "conspiracy" word, I think it might surprise you to learn the the russian government/FSB is actively _conspiring_ to win their war in ukraine, just as ukraine is conspiring to not lose.
  - DANmode 3y ago

cedws 3y ago

This stuff is what keeps me awake at night. "No rational person would use nuclear weapons first" Well, who's to say that the people in charge of the nukes are rational? All it takes is one madman and we could have one of the biggest disasters in human history. We tend to underestimate the likelihood of such disasters and don't prepare for them (COVID is one example.) One day, someone will fire a nuclear weapon at civilians and we just have to hope it isn't in our lifetime. Nuke-wielding dictatorships are the scariest because they can eliminate the checks and balances in the way of a launch. If Putin falls ill tomorrow and thinks the Americans poisoned him, what's to say he won't nuke them as final revenge? What about Kim Jong Un? What about Xi Jinping?

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
DANmode 3y ago
> One day, someone will fire a nuclear weapon at civilians and we just have to hope it isn't in our lifetime. Guessing you're not Japanese?

alephnerd 3y ago

> But in reality it's both Pakistan and India If you want to stay up at night - India, Pakistan, and China basically had a Cuban Missle Crisis level event in 2019-2020. India and Pakistan almost went to war in 2019 after the Pulwama attack [0] and then India and China were a trigger away from starting a war over the Galwan river [1]. [0] - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/25/india-pakistan-came-close-to-a-nuclear-war-in-2019-pompeo https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/25/india-pakistan-came... [1] - https://theprint.in/defence/nearing-breaking-point-gen-naravane-recalls-how-india-china-were-at-brink-of-war-in-aug-2020/1892648/ https://theprint.in/defence/nearing-breaking-point-gen-narav...

philwelch 3y ago
There are disputed border areas between India and China, and the two countries have had multiple skirmishes there, but to prevent any serious escalation, the two countries have mutually agreed not to use firearms, so they mostly fight with melee weapons. This is to avoid escalation.
- alephnerd 3y ago
  > the two countries have mutually agreed not to use firearms The Border Peace and Tranquility Agreement from 1993 is over now after the intial clash on the confluence of Shyok and Galwan River, leaving casualties on both sides. Indian and Chinese soldiers now patrol armed again. After that initial clash, several additional clashes started, both India and China began mobilizing, and India considered launching artillery strikes on Chinese positions. Read the article - it's written by the General Naravane, who was commanding the Indian Army at the time.
  - philwelch 3y ago
    Oh no