6 ms·

On one hand, this is a classic dictatorship move. Senegal just did the same just after postponing elections. On the other hand, Pakistan really did have terror

by sofixa 3y ago

On one hand, this is a classic dictatorship move. Senegal just did the same just after postponing elections. On the other hand, Pakistan really did have terrorist attacks just before the election, targeted at the election. So taking heavy handed steps to protect the election integrity can be explained.

nonrandomstring 3y ago
As an idea, media moratoriums immediately prior to elections seems fairly sensible. AI and disinformation attacks are likely to be 'last minute'. Maybe the entire phone and Internet system is going a bit far. Also, obtaining broad consensus for just muting the main social media channels doesn't seem that unreasonable. My thought is, unless gunmen are showing up at polling stations, what exactly is so urgent to discuss that people haven't already made up their minds about in 24 hours? Here's a few pro and anti standpoints [0..3]. [0] https://tech-ish.com/2024/01/12/2024-elections-internet-blackouts/ https://tech-ish.com/2024/01/12/2024-elections-internet-blac... [1] https://www.axios.com/2020/09/25/majority-polled-back-a-social-media-blackout-for-election https://www.axios.com/2020/09/25/majority-polled-back-a-soci... [2] https://www.wired.com/story/opinion-on-the-week-of-the-election-social-media-must-go-dark/ https://www.wired.com/story/opinion-on-the-week-of-the-elect... [3] https://cybershow.uk/blog/posts/election-disinfo/ https://cybershow.uk/blog/posts/election-disinfo/
- giantg2 3y ago
  "As an idea, media moratoriums immediately prior to elections seems fairly sensible. AI and disinformation attacks are likely to be 'last minute'." Not just for misinformation, but for true information that can inject bias into the decision. Many people use polls leading up to an election to pick the winner. Primaries are an institutionalized version of this where the first few states get greater influence of the options available in the others. If we actually want to pick the best people, then we should be working to eliminate bias. I would love to see heavy restrictions in campaign advertising, the creation of a central campaign website on which every registered candidate gets a page to design, same day national primaries, some implementation of ranked choice voting, and restrictions on predictive polling or other predictive reporting that can influence the result. Although these raise many first amendment questions around legality.
- omajid 3y ago
  I think looking at actions around elections in Pakistan through a western lens can lead to false conclusions easily. Let me try and explain through an analogy. Suppose a US political party (A) decided it wanted to win the US elections no matter what. And it had enough clout, "campaign contributions", among the various government agencies (courts, police, FBI) to make it happen. But it just didn't have the votes to make it happen. So it used the court system to declare an entire opposite party (B) as in-eligible to run the country. If you support Republicans/Trump, think Trump is found in-eligible and the entire Republican party is too. If you support Democrats, think Biden and the entire Democrat party are banned from running in elections. That means every single member of the house that claims to be from party B is banned as running for that party. And this isn't done 2 years in advance, but mere days/weeks from the election. That sounds entirely undemocratic, right? Now the party B figures out that it represents the will of the people enough and it has enough votes that it could not only run but has a decent chance at winning. So, the members decide to run as Independents. How do you communicate this to the voters quickly? When Charlie goes in to vote for someone from B, how does he find out who to vote for? Now, add another issue to the mix. Party A really wants to win (when it can't in an ideal democracy) so it makes it difficult to vote for people in districts where it knows it is unpopular. Alice, Bob and Charlie can be living in the same household but get assigned 3 different voting locations. Imagine they all live in Dallas, TX and get asked to vote in 3 different locations in Fort-Worth, Garland and Irving. Now, the only way Charlie can still vote for the candidate that he thinks represents his views the best is to make use of websites to look up where to vote and which candidate is associated with the now-banned party B. Without internet and other sources of instant and mass communication, Charlie can't do that. As a result of these actions, party B loses the election and party A wins. Please note this is a very biased - but plausible - way to interpret the events around the current elections in Pakistan. But hopefully that perspective helps on why blocking the internet and controlling the means of communication is so important to certain individuals, companies, and political parties in Pakistan. And also why we can't look at the situation from the outside and fully understand the nuances at play.
  - nonrandomstring 3y ago
    Hmm, I tried to follow but that seemed a little elaborate. I think if someone tried to pull-off what you described (declaring a candidate disqualified within a week of an election) you'd have civil unrest or worse on your hands regardless any information flows.
- almatabata 3y ago
  > My thought is, unless gunmen are showing up at polling stations, what exactly is so urgent to discuss that people haven't already made up their minds about in 24 hours? If they got blasted with misinformation 24/7 before election day, how much will those 24 hours help them make an informed opinion? It might stop last minute attempts at swaying the election. But it will not stop long running campaigns.
  - nonrandomstring 3y ago
    That is indeed a different and separate problem in a different information space. Personally, I don't think any kind of censorship is useful or justified there.
  - throwaway2203 3y ago
    Hearing from friends that there were a lot of last minute shenanigans like poll locations getting changed, candidates election symbols getting changed (important given the lack of literacy).
- stratocumulus0 3y ago
  Some countries including my home country Poland impose a ban on political agitation on the election day. It means that no political content may be published on that day, but whatever has been published before that is allowed to stay. This is an old law which predates the Internet, so anything from social media posts to hanging up election posters is liable to be prosecuted and the authorities frequently do so. It's less drastic than in Pakistan, more drastic than in the West, but it certainly does cause a chilling effect on people when they know they may lose a few thousands if they get caught.
  - hiAndrewQuinn 3y ago
    Wait, do Polish people not consider themselves part of the West? Genuine question. I've met and worked with quite a few Poles since moving to the EU and my current takeaway is that it's in a really interesting fusion time between West, East, and some more mysterious third thing.
    - yau8edq12i 3y ago
      I guess it was a shorthand for western Europe.
    - bluefirebrand 3y ago
      "The West" is a very murky sort of definition. Arguably the colloquial "Cultural West" is what is on the Western side of what used to be called the Iron Curtain. Poland was definitely on the Eastern side of that.
      - foobarian 3y ago
        I think being strongly Catholic draws Poland into the Western sphere in spite of the Cold War divisions.
      - The_Colonel 3y ago
        Iron Curtain was a political, not cultural border. Western civilization usually includes all European catholic countries, i. e. also Poland. (Huntington is a notorious example)
- avgcorrection 3y ago
  On the one hand, maybe. On the other hand you lose democracy “bragging rights” when you have to protect the soft skulls of your subjects.
  - nonrandomstring 3y ago
    Yes there's some of loss of the sense of absolute democratic purity. But then Aristotle saw that tradeoff against real polity quite some time back. I think your point (that people ought to be smart and strong enough to withstand all and any malign influence(?)) made a lot more sense 20 years ago. In the Internet and AI influence age I think things have significantly changed. It's the integrity of the democratic process rather than the "soft skills" that requires a little more protection.
    - avgcorrection 3y ago
      “Disinformation” is always a smokescreen. All nominal (keyword) democratic processes are filled with disinformation: standard advertisement. Those who want peace, lay down your own arms as well (no takers). Like almost 2 years of election circus in the US federal election. > I think your point (that people ought to be smart and strong enough to withstand all and any malign influence(?)) That’s absurd. I don’t conceptualize “people” as some not-me group. Well I’m not Indian^W Pakistani but the principle is universal.
      - nonrandomstring 3y ago
        Here's a document I am currently reading for my research [0]. It contains some interesting definitions I hope you find helpful. [0] https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2021/653635/EXPO_STU(2021)653635_EN.pdf https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2021/6536...
        avgcorrection 3y ago
        Helpful? > Here, disinformation refers to false, inaccurate or misleading information designed, presented and promoted intentionally to cause public harm or make a profit. Is campaigning on lies a form of profit? You might win. These hypocrites really dare to present this as novel? Lying in politics? What’s really the practical difference between this ostensibly oh-so clearly demarcated “disinformation” and less outright other-information? The difference is having a discourse fog which makes it practically impossible to conclude anything without sinking into a quagmire of rhetoric. Here’s a “Beijing” statement, hypothetical: > We the people of China Ah! the eggheads exclaim. Propaganda! Clear disinformation since China is an authoritarian state (sorry, regime)—it can’t be a state “of the people”. Here’s a “Washington” statement: > The President does not suffer symptoms of senility What is this? This is twenty different articles and op-eds back and forth on this topic: - Well he went to the doctor 15 years ago and he said he was fine - My good friend Joe Biden would never become demented—he would rather [redacted] - I respect the President but it’s time for some young blood in leadership - As a close aide to the President, blah blah - He might not seem as sharp as 12 years ago but [diversion tactic] Isn’t it amazing—you cannot peddle outright disinformation if you are sufficiently powerful, almost by definition; there is always some clown who will bat for you. And the result? A discourse fog. No one is a liar. No one is peddling “disinformation for profit.” In conclusion: what we do are varying levels of information. But what these foreign forces do (because they are not here to defend themselves, and anyone who defends them (or just has a nuanced point of view) is just <regime>-puppet anyway) is disinformation because they clearly are X while they claim to be Y.
- mcmoor 3y ago
  Indonesia's election is next week and they also impose 3 day "quiet day" where no political campaign may occur. I don't know if we'll have internet shutdown though.
pphysch 3y ago
How does cutting off communications prevent terrorist cells from executing their planned attacks? The real reason is obviously that the ruling elite usurped and imprisoned Pakistan's most popular leader, which means the political situation is very volatile.
- dageshi 3y ago
  Bombs with mobile phones attached designed to trigger when the phone is called/texted?
  - jasonjayr 3y ago
    Cheap battery powered mesh radio devices could just as easily trigger something, and be difficult to trace.
- jstarfish 3y ago
  These are terror attacks, not three people trying to shoot the same target in a motorcade. It impedes their situational awareness. If they're waiting on signals that never come, you win. If you capture one, he can't warn the others. You know what they say about plans and first contact with the enemy...
- jrockway 3y ago
  I guess it's not a terrorist attack if nobody knows about it. Imagine you see the news "Poll site in the Bronx firebombed" right before you head out to vote. You're going to think twice about voting. But if you don't see that news story, you'll just go vote, because you don't know there's a risk of being killed. The logic makes sense but I wouldn't like to see a media ban here. "Congress shall make no law..."
TriNetra 3y ago
IN Pakistan army decides and is the real ruler. Elections are only a face to appear as a democratic sate. In fact Pakistan elite (including army higher ranks) just is there to milk the country and build estates outside (West/UAE/etc).
- wozniacki 3y ago
  Isnt it also true that no democratically elected or coup-installed Prime Minister in Pakistan's history has ever successfully completed a single full term in office, ever since their independence[1]? And if that is true, isn't Pakistan a glorified tin-pot republic, thats democracy only on paper & manages to stay alive at the mercy of the propping-up prowess of U.S. and U.K., to act as a lily pad[2] of sorts in the region? [1] Every time the gov’t topples (no Pakistani Prime Minister has completed 5 years in office), corruption/looting reaches even higher levels… …to replenish and grow the bounty that was paid to buy out votes in elections and in the parliament. Sad, but v familiar to Pakistanis. 12:08 PM · Apr 9, 2022 https://twitter.com/bznotes/status/1512870199338287106 https://twitter.com/bznotes/status/1512870199338287106 [2] Cooperative security location https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooperative_security_location https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooperative_security_location
  - lainga 3y ago
    Funny way to express the $65 billion of FDI that China's put into Pakistan, along with joint development of the JF-17 and 47% of China's arms exports as a whole, isn't it? Or has the near-total cut in US military aid to Pakistan over 2018-2022 been a delayed coup de grace, and should we expect the country to implode at any minute?
    - kranke155 3y ago
      Nobody can afford Pakistan to implode I think. The fact they have nuclear weapons is like a giant blackmail file on the entire world.
- user3939382 3y ago
  [flagged]
apapapa 3y ago
No.

by sofixa 3y ago

nonrandomstring 3y ago

As an idea, media moratoriums immediately prior to elections seems fairly sensible. AI and disinformation attacks are likely to be 'last minute'. Maybe the entire phone and Internet system is going a bit far. Also, obtaining broad consensus for just muting the main social media channels doesn't seem that unreasonable. My thought is, unless gunmen are showing up at polling stations, what exactly is so urgent to discuss that people haven't already made up their minds about in 24 hours? Here's a few pro and anti standpoints [0..3]. [0] https://tech-ish.com/2024/01/12/2024-elections-internet-blackouts/ https://tech-ish.com/2024/01/12/2024-elections-internet-blac... [1] https://www.axios.com/2020/09/25/majority-polled-back-a-social-media-blackout-for-election https://www.axios.com/2020/09/25/majority-polled-back-a-soci... [2] https://www.wired.com/story/opinion-on-the-week-of-the-election-social-media-must-go-dark/ https://www.wired.com/story/opinion-on-the-week-of-the-elect... [3] https://cybershow.uk/blog/posts/election-disinfo/ https://cybershow.uk/blog/posts/election-disinfo/

giantg2 3y ago
"As an idea, media moratoriums immediately prior to elections seems fairly sensible. AI and disinformation attacks are likely to be 'last minute'." Not just for misinformation, but for true information that can inject bias into the decision. Many people use polls leading up to an election to pick the winner. Primaries are an institutionalized version of this where the first few states get greater influence of the options available in the others. If we actually want to pick the best people, then we should be working to eliminate bias. I would love to see heavy restrictions in campaign advertising, the creation of a central campaign website on which every registered candidate gets a page to design, same day national primaries, some implementation of ranked choice voting, and restrictions on predictive polling or other predictive reporting that can influence the result. Although these raise many first amendment questions around legality.
omajid 3y ago
I think looking at actions around elections in Pakistan through a western lens can lead to false conclusions easily. Let me try and explain through an analogy. Suppose a US political party (A) decided it wanted to win the US elections no matter what. And it had enough clout, "campaign contributions", among the various government agencies (courts, police, FBI) to make it happen. But it just didn't have the votes to make it happen. So it used the court system to declare an entire opposite party (B) as in-eligible to run the country. If you support Republicans/Trump, think Trump is found in-eligible and the entire Republican party is too. If you support Democrats, think Biden and the entire Democrat party are banned from running in elections. That means every single member of the house that claims to be from party B is banned as running for that party. And this isn't done 2 years in advance, but mere days/weeks from the election. That sounds entirely undemocratic, right? Now the party B figures out that it represents the will of the people enough and it has enough votes that it could not only run but has a decent chance at winning. So, the members decide to run as Independents. How do you communicate this to the voters quickly? When Charlie goes in to vote for someone from B, how does he find out who to vote for? Now, add another issue to the mix. Party A really wants to win (when it can't in an ideal democracy) so it makes it difficult to vote for people in districts where it knows it is unpopular. Alice, Bob and Charlie can be living in the same household but get assigned 3 different voting locations. Imagine they all live in Dallas, TX and get asked to vote in 3 different locations in Fort-Worth, Garland and Irving. Now, the only way Charlie can still vote for the candidate that he thinks represents his views the best is to make use of websites to look up where to vote and which candidate is associated with the now-banned party B. Without internet and other sources of instant and mass communication, Charlie can't do that. As a result of these actions, party B loses the election and party A wins. Please note this is a very biased - but plausible - way to interpret the events around the current elections in Pakistan. But hopefully that perspective helps on why blocking the internet and controlling the means of communication is so important to certain individuals, companies, and political parties in Pakistan. And also why we can't look at the situation from the outside and fully understand the nuances at play.
- nonrandomstring 3y ago
  Hmm, I tried to follow but that seemed a little elaborate. I think if someone tried to pull-off what you described (declaring a candidate disqualified within a week of an election) you'd have civil unrest or worse on your hands regardless any information flows.
almatabata 3y ago
> My thought is, unless gunmen are showing up at polling stations, what exactly is so urgent to discuss that people haven't already made up their minds about in 24 hours? If they got blasted with misinformation 24/7 before election day, how much will those 24 hours help them make an informed opinion? It might stop last minute attempts at swaying the election. But it will not stop long running campaigns.
- nonrandomstring 3y ago
  That is indeed a different and separate problem in a different information space. Personally, I don't think any kind of censorship is useful or justified there.
- throwaway2203 3y ago
  Hearing from friends that there were a lot of last minute shenanigans like poll locations getting changed, candidates election symbols getting changed (important given the lack of literacy).
stratocumulus0 3y ago
Some countries including my home country Poland impose a ban on political agitation on the election day. It means that no political content may be published on that day, but whatever has been published before that is allowed to stay. This is an old law which predates the Internet, so anything from social media posts to hanging up election posters is liable to be prosecuted and the authorities frequently do so. It's less drastic than in Pakistan, more drastic than in the West, but it certainly does cause a chilling effect on people when they know they may lose a few thousands if they get caught.
- hiAndrewQuinn 3y ago
  Wait, do Polish people not consider themselves part of the West? Genuine question. I've met and worked with quite a few Poles since moving to the EU and my current takeaway is that it's in a really interesting fusion time between West, East, and some more mysterious third thing.
  - yau8edq12i 3y ago
    I guess it was a shorthand for western Europe.
  - bluefirebrand 3y ago
    "The West" is a very murky sort of definition. Arguably the colloquial "Cultural West" is what is on the Western side of what used to be called the Iron Curtain. Poland was definitely on the Eastern side of that.
    - foobarian 3y ago
      I think being strongly Catholic draws Poland into the Western sphere in spite of the Cold War divisions.
    - The_Colonel 3y ago
      Iron Curtain was a political, not cultural border. Western civilization usually includes all European catholic countries, i. e. also Poland. (Huntington is a notorious example)
avgcorrection 3y ago
On the one hand, maybe. On the other hand you lose democracy “bragging rights” when you have to protect the soft skulls of your subjects.
- nonrandomstring 3y ago
  Yes there's some of loss of the sense of absolute democratic purity. But then Aristotle saw that tradeoff against real polity quite some time back. I think your point (that people ought to be smart and strong enough to withstand all and any malign influence(?)) made a lot more sense 20 years ago. In the Internet and AI influence age I think things have significantly changed. It's the integrity of the democratic process rather than the "soft skills" that requires a little more protection.
  - avgcorrection 3y ago
    “Disinformation” is always a smokescreen. All nominal (keyword) democratic processes are filled with disinformation: standard advertisement. Those who want peace, lay down your own arms as well (no takers). Like almost 2 years of election circus in the US federal election. > I think your point (that people ought to be smart and strong enough to withstand all and any malign influence(?)) That’s absurd. I don’t conceptualize “people” as some not-me group. Well I’m not Indian^W Pakistani but the principle is universal.
    - nonrandomstring 3y ago
      Here's a document I am currently reading for my research [0]. It contains some interesting definitions I hope you find helpful. [0] https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2021/653635/EXPO_STU(2021)653635_EN.pdf https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2021/6536...
      - avgcorrection 3y ago
        Helpful? > Here, disinformation refers to false, inaccurate or misleading information designed, presented and promoted intentionally to cause public harm or make a profit. Is campaigning on lies a form of profit? You might win. These hypocrites really dare to present this as novel? Lying in politics? What’s really the practical difference between this ostensibly oh-so clearly demarcated “disinformation” and less outright other-information? The difference is having a discourse fog which makes it practically impossible to conclude anything without sinking into a quagmire of rhetoric. Here’s a “Beijing” statement, hypothetical: > We the people of China Ah! the eggheads exclaim. Propaganda! Clear disinformation since China is an authoritarian state (sorry, regime)—it can’t be a state “of the people”. Here’s a “Washington” statement: > The President does not suffer symptoms of senility What is this? This is twenty different articles and op-eds back and forth on this topic: - Well he went to the doctor 15 years ago and he said he was fine - My good friend Joe Biden would never become demented—he would rather [redacted] - I respect the President but it’s time for some young blood in leadership - As a close aide to the President, blah blah - He might not seem as sharp as 12 years ago but [diversion tactic] Isn’t it amazing—you cannot peddle outright disinformation if you are sufficiently powerful, almost by definition; there is always some clown who will bat for you. And the result? A discourse fog. No one is a liar. No one is peddling “disinformation for profit.” In conclusion: what we do are varying levels of information. But what these foreign forces do (because they are not here to defend themselves, and anyone who defends them (or just has a nuanced point of view) is just <regime>-puppet anyway) is disinformation because they clearly are X while they claim to be Y.
mcmoor 3y ago
Indonesia's election is next week and they also impose 3 day "quiet day" where no political campaign may occur. I don't know if we'll have internet shutdown though.

pphysch 3y ago

How does cutting off communications prevent terrorist cells from executing their planned attacks? The real reason is obviously that the ruling elite usurped and imprisoned Pakistan's most popular leader, which means the political situation is very volatile.

dageshi 3y ago
Bombs with mobile phones attached designed to trigger when the phone is called/texted?
- jasonjayr 3y ago
  Cheap battery powered mesh radio devices could just as easily trigger something, and be difficult to trace.
jstarfish 3y ago
These are terror attacks, not three people trying to shoot the same target in a motorcade. It impedes their situational awareness. If they're waiting on signals that never come, you win. If you capture one, he can't warn the others. You know what they say about plans and first contact with the enemy...
jrockway 3y ago
I guess it's not a terrorist attack if nobody knows about it. Imagine you see the news "Poll site in the Bronx firebombed" right before you head out to vote. You're going to think twice about voting. But if you don't see that news story, you'll just go vote, because you don't know there's a risk of being killed. The logic makes sense but I wouldn't like to see a media ban here. "Congress shall make no law..."

TriNetra 3y ago

IN Pakistan army decides and is the real ruler. Elections are only a face to appear as a democratic sate. In fact Pakistan elite (including army higher ranks) just is there to milk the country and build estates outside (West/UAE/etc).

wozniacki 3y ago
Isnt it also true that no democratically elected or coup-installed Prime Minister in Pakistan's history has ever successfully completed a single full term in office, ever since their independence[1]? And if that is true, isn't Pakistan a glorified tin-pot republic, thats democracy only on paper & manages to stay alive at the mercy of the propping-up prowess of U.S. and U.K., to act as a lily pad[2] of sorts in the region? [1] Every time the gov’t topples (no Pakistani Prime Minister has completed 5 years in office), corruption/looting reaches even higher levels… …to replenish and grow the bounty that was paid to buy out votes in elections and in the parliament. Sad, but v familiar to Pakistanis. 12:08 PM · Apr 9, 2022 https://twitter.com/bznotes/status/1512870199338287106 https://twitter.com/bznotes/status/1512870199338287106 [2] Cooperative security location https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooperative_security_location https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooperative_security_location
- lainga 3y ago
  Funny way to express the $65 billion of FDI that China's put into Pakistan, along with joint development of the JF-17 and 47% of China's arms exports as a whole, isn't it? Or has the near-total cut in US military aid to Pakistan over 2018-2022 been a delayed coup de grace, and should we expect the country to implode at any minute?
  - kranke155 3y ago
    Nobody can afford Pakistan to implode I think. The fact they have nuclear weapons is like a giant blackmail file on the entire world.
user3939382 3y ago
[flagged]

apapapa 3y ago

No.