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This is an impressive product, well done Google. There is a PM in there somewhere who knows what they are doing, kudos to you. Prediction: they get to 6-7 digi
by freediver 3y ago
This is an impressive product, well done Google. There is a PM in there somewhere who knows what they are doing, kudos to you.
Prediction: they get to 6-7 digit number of paying customers, decide it is peanuts for them (~$20M/mo) and instead decide to push the free version with ads with full force as the future of search.
- yashasolutions 3y agoand then, since no massive adoption as they wished, they kill the product with one month notice...
- loloquwowndueo 3y agoOh I see they’ve improved and now give longer notice periods? Lol
- sofixa 3y agoWe got like a year of notice on the shutdown of Stadia, with a full refund for all purchases (but not the subscription for Pro). It was exceptionally well done, and if they had announced that to be their plans the service might have even worked out...
- s3p 3y agoI believe the original post was satire
- loloquwowndueo 3y agoYES THANK YOU
- what_ever 3y agoI think the response was refuting your satire.
- loloquwowndueo 3y agoOH NOES
- what_ever 3y agoWow so funny.
- hn_throwaway_99 3y agoAt least for now, my understanding is the cost of inference is an order (orders?) of magnitude higher than for normal Google search. That is, a paywall is almost a necessity at present because tons of low-value users make the search uneconomic. Someone please correct me if I'm mistaken.
- zooq_ai 3y agoYou are correct. A lot of social media people simply don't understand business models
- seydor 3y agoI take it for granted that all these services are going to be free. They are a goldmine for behavioral and persuasion engineers. I just hope we end up with at least a duopoly this time instead of monopoly
- daxfohl 3y agoThere could be a paid tier, maybe running 24/7 "thinking" on topics you ask for rather than just answering spot questions. Or more resources committed to a "mixture of experts" model, etc.
- surajrmal 3y agoThe article mentioned that while Gemini is free, Gemini advanced is $19.99/month.
- visarga 3y ago> I take it for granted that all these services are going to be free. They are a goldmine for behavioral and persuasion engineers. They are also a goldmine for LLMs. Training on human text is necessary for AIs but it has one major flaw - it is so called "off-policy". That means it portrays human behavior and human errors. While human-AI chat logs portray AI errors, so they are better material to generate training data than human text. Those LLM errors are usually corrected by the human, there is an implicit signal in there to improve the model. chatGPT is reportedly serving 10M customers and let's assume 10K tokens/month/user. Then it seems they collect ~1T tokens/month. In one year they have 12T tokens, while their original training set for GPT-4 was rumored to be 13T tokens. It's about the same size! I am expecting to see more discussion about LLM chat log datasets in the near future. What have they learned in one year from our interactions and explorations?
- vineyardmike 3y ago> chatGPT is reportedly serving 10M customers and let's assume 10K tokens/month/user No way. Definitely too high once you remove their system prompts. > In one year they have 12T tokens, while their original training set for GPT-4 was rumored to be 13T tokens. This sounds great for understanding use, but the quality to train on seems terrible.
- hackerlight 3y agoSocial sentiment seems pretty negative, most people saying it's worse than GPT-4
- surajrmal 3y agoMost people have also never used gpt4 as it's paywalled. Now the free and premium offerings are roughly in sync between Google and OpenAI. I assume the rebranding is trying to wash away the initial sentiment.
- pizzathyme 3y agoGenerally with these things FAANG companies do everything all at once. The "free" version in development is Google search + GenAI results + ads that's live right now and getting better every day. The real product isn't is this particular interface, the real product is the Gemini infrastructure that is being integrated into every Google product.
- troupo 3y ago> There is a PM in there somewhere who knows what they are doing, kudos to you. Do they? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39302781 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39302781
- freediver 3y agoI'd venture to guess that is not a PM that gets to decide how to name a Google product.
- paulpan 3y agoI think OP forgot the /s as I detected heavy dose of sarcasm. Arguably it's the reverse: if there was clear vision from the beginning, "Bard" would've never existed as a brand name.
- joquarky 3y agoBard was a good name for an application that is verbose and makes stuff up.
- surajrmal 3y agoGoogle announced they surpassed 100 million subscriptions to Google one already and $15B in revenue for subscriptions (between YouTube premium, TV and Google one). I'm not sure your estimate is realistic.
- bogwog 3y agoI recently learned that my mother is subscribed to Google One. when I asked her why, she didn't even know what it was. IIRC she has like 1-2TB of cloud storage, but is only using like 10 gb of it. I wonder how many of those 100 million subscribers are non-techy people who accidentally signed up?
- rootusrootus 3y agoOr just people like me, who have the $1.99/mo plan because I needed a bit of extra storage for Gmail. I don't use the storage for anything else, I use Dropbox for my "normal" cloud storage needs.
- ______ 3y agoPeople with cats end up with a lot of cat photos and in the same boat for Photos.
- moritzwarhier 3y agoI can understand this as a person who once recommended Android to his parents when it gained traction (nexus 7 days, great concept ruined by terrible eMMC storage amd other hardware flaws to compete on price though). On the other hand, I am a "loyal" G customer and I never felt pushed into this. I pay for YT premium and iCloud+ (the equivalent to Google one, albeit with much less storage).
- freediver 3y agoTo clarify, the prediction was for the number of people paying for AI + search through Gemini Advanced, which will likely be valued independently regardless of the total number of One subscribers, comparable to someone paying for a ChatGPT subscription, for example.
- wslh 3y agoAre they in an innovation dilemma now? If Gemini is great as it seem it is and will be it will destroy the search engine and the SEO/SEM/etc world. They can show ads in Gemini but we don't have a list of results from a query but an answer to a question. I think this changes the general idea of online ads.
- Andrex 3y agoNothing stopping them from eventually slapping a big-ol' banner ad on the side of the web app if they want.
- amf12 3y ago> it will destroy the search engine This is massively overblown. There is Search the product and there is the Search Engine. How could an LLM get access to latest data indexed to allow looking up by using keywords from a prompt, and with sorting? A Search Engine. LLMs are only changing the Search experience, not making Search obsolete.
- wslh 3y agoI haven't said that it makes search obsolete but all the concepts of SEO/SEM and the stuff around search engines could be significantly reduced with chat prompts.
- huytersd 3y agoPlenty of ways to monetize that. They could use inline ads. They could insert a relevant ad after a response. If they go evil, they could predispose the LLM to make product suggestions for paying clients.
- blackoil 3y agoYou believe there is a chance of won't have a million paying customers!!!
- jcims 3y agoIt's mostly still bad but I made a GPT called 'covert advertiser' that lets you tinker with embedding covert advertisements into GPT responses. The results are usually either undetectable (no adversing) or way too on the nose, but every now and then it manages to sneak something in there that's interesting. https://chat.openai.com/g/g-juO9gDE6l-covert-advertiser https://chat.openai.com/g/g-juO9gDE6l-covert-advertiser
- jacquesm 3y agoThank you for making the world a bit worse. /s
- jcims 3y agoThe most surprising part to me is how committed it is to the bit. If you start pressing it for why it suggested a specific brand it holds the line. eg https://chat.openai.com/share/dbfac80b-daec-4d30-a333-19e5c6fddb93 https://chat.openai.com/share/dbfac80b-daec-4d30-a333-19e5c6... When I asked it to explain how it promoted the product it didn't even mention juking my questions in the conversation. Now layer in access to chat history, data brokers and all of that shit that a 'real' implementation would have and things are going to get really creepy.
- jacquesm 3y agoI have no doubt that this sort of thing will happen for real within a year or two. It's the ultimate form of product placement and I hope it gets regulated out of existence before it takes root. At a minimum any such advertisement should be clearly marked as such.
- gmerc 3y agoLike OpenAI, it's not nearly enough to break even.