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Russia's Black Sea Fleet has been largely confined to port in Novorossiysk by Ukrainian "naval drones", having previously been used to bombard Ukrainian cities

Russia's Black Sea Fleet has been largely confined to port in Novorossiysk by Ukrainian "naval drones", having previously been used to bombard Ukrainian cities with cruise missiles. So what are these naval drones? I assumed they were fancy, expensive sea-skimming cruise missiles; nope. Apparently they're modified jet-skis with cheap FPV navigation equipment. So I don't think you're wrong, and I think we've already found out. A submarine with a nuclear torpedo could take out an entire carrier group. Nuclear submarines are apparently still hard to detect underwater; but once someone figures out how to detect them, they'll be obsolete. I think the Senior Service may be doomed.

andrewflnr 3y ago
Anti submarine warfare is already a huge discipline. Submarines are still not obsolete, nor is it trivial for them to sink an entire carrier group. IIRC in exercises a submarine usually gets one shot before it has to run from the ASW attacks. For any technological advance, the counter technology adapts, so it's not very common for something to actually become obsolete.
JohnBooty 3y ago
Apparently they're modified jet-skis with cheap FPV navigation equipment. Yeah. I read about that recent sinking, momentarily cheered for Ukraine, and then thought about the larger implications and was like... man the USN is screwed, huh?
- justin66 3y ago
  Eh. The USN is prepared to deal with speedboats piloted by suicide bombers. Does the jetski drone test ship security in a way that those do not?
  - JohnBooty 3y ago
    Yeah, I'd sure think so. - A peer/neer-peer adversary can presumably throw a very large number of simultaneous drones at a USN vessel. I don't know how feasible it is rustle up 10 or 100 reliable simultaneous human suicide bombers. - The jet ski drones can surely be physically smaller than a speedboat that needs to hold a human - The jet skis can trade some of that size back and armor themselves against CIWS etc in ways that would be less practical for a suicide boat
    - justin66 3y ago
      I looked into these a little more and the main thing I took away from it was, given their size and payload these aren't really "jet skis," even though the Ukrainians are sometimes naming them such. They are definitely formidable. I don't think I'd be so worried about them surviving hits from the CIWS. On the open ocean I'd be worried about the possibility of encountering so many drones that the CIWS runs out of ammunition. In a port, I'd be worried about the practicality of using the CIWS at all, but I think the Navy can adapt. The main thing is that the Navy were sort of deemphasizing stuff like the Phalanx on their recent ship designs, and this is the second time the past couple of weeks that I've read something suggesting they'll probably need to reverse that trend.
      - JohnBooty 3y ago
        In addition to running out of ammo at some point, at some point I would imagine the CIWS would need a cooldown period? I still also think the front of a "jetski" drone could probably be hardened to withstand a certain amount of 20×102mm fire but, I am guessing and don't know how to determine how feasible that might be.

andrewflnr 3y ago

Anti submarine warfare is already a huge discipline. Submarines are still not obsolete, nor is it trivial for them to sink an entire carrier group. IIRC in exercises a submarine usually gets one shot before it has to run from the ASW attacks. For any technological advance, the counter technology adapts, so it's not very common for something to actually become obsolete.

JohnBooty 3y ago

Apparently they're modified jet-skis with cheap FPV navigation equipment. Yeah. I read about that recent sinking, momentarily cheered for Ukraine, and then thought about the larger implications and was like... man the USN is screwed, huh?

justin66 3y ago
Eh. The USN is prepared to deal with speedboats piloted by suicide bombers. Does the jetski drone test ship security in a way that those do not?
- JohnBooty 3y ago
  Yeah, I'd sure think so. - A peer/neer-peer adversary can presumably throw a very large number of simultaneous drones at a USN vessel. I don't know how feasible it is rustle up 10 or 100 reliable simultaneous human suicide bombers. - The jet ski drones can surely be physically smaller than a speedboat that needs to hold a human - The jet skis can trade some of that size back and armor themselves against CIWS etc in ways that would be less practical for a suicide boat
  - justin66 3y ago
    I looked into these a little more and the main thing I took away from it was, given their size and payload these aren't really "jet skis," even though the Ukrainians are sometimes naming them such. They are definitely formidable. I don't think I'd be so worried about them surviving hits from the CIWS. On the open ocean I'd be worried about the possibility of encountering so many drones that the CIWS runs out of ammunition. In a port, I'd be worried about the practicality of using the CIWS at all, but I think the Navy can adapt. The main thing is that the Navy were sort of deemphasizing stuff like the Phalanx on their recent ship designs, and this is the second time the past couple of weeks that I've read something suggesting they'll probably need to reverse that trend.
    - JohnBooty 3y ago
      In addition to running out of ammo at some point, at some point I would imagine the CIWS would need a cooldown period? I still also think the front of a "jetski" drone could probably be hardened to withstand a certain amount of 20×102mm fire but, I am guessing and don't know how to determine how feasible that might be.